Addis Abeba — In George Orwell's prophetic novel 1984, authoritarian power thrives not by silencing truth directly, but by distorting it so thoroughly that the line between reality and propaganda disappears. One of the most chilling slogans of the ruling party is "War is Peace." In Orwell's world, perpetual war is not a failure of diplomacy but a calculated strategy to maintain power and obedience through fear, exhaustion, and distraction.
Today, Orwell's dystopia is no longer fiction. It is the lived reality of Ethiopia under the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The Peace That Wages a Genocidal War
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Since coming to power in 2018, Abiy Ahmed has relentlessly branded himself as a peacemaker, a narrative that fooled much of the international community. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in December 2019 and praised globally for his rapprochement with Eritrea. Yet behind the polished speeches and handshakes was a leader already laying the groundwork for a genocidal war. This war has engulfed Tigray in one of the deadliest humanitarian crises of the 21st century.
Abiy Ahmed even established a "Ministry of Peace," an ironically named institution under whose watch genocidal violence, mass displacement, mass starvation, and a manufactured famine were inflicted on Tigray. In December 2020, the then Amhara Regional Police Commissioner, Abere Adamu, gave a speech describing how the war on Tigray was launched. He admitted openly that it was the federal regime, together with the Amhara regional militia and Fano, that started the war. Abere explained that the Amhara militia and Fano had "already done their homework" and were positioned in advance, coordinating with federal mechanized divisions near Humera. As he put it, "The war started that night after we had already completed our preparations." He even described how the Amhara militia and Fano guided federal mechanized divisions into Tigray once the fighting began. His account makes clear that the assault was not a sudden response, as Abiy's regime later claimed, but a carefully prepared offensive carried out in close coordination between the federal regime and its allies.
A former Minister of Peace, Taye Dendea, now imprisoned in Ethiopia, later admitted publicly that Abiy himself deliberately started the war on Tigray and stated that Abiy Ahmed cannot live without war. Gedu Andargachew, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia and a key player during the war on Tigray, has also recalled that when he visited Tigray during the war, Ethiopian soldiers told him they had been ordered to commit war crimes. Gedu now places full responsibility on Abiy, describing him as "ruthless" and warning that Abiy is destroying the country beyond repair.
Milkesa Midega Gemechu (Ph.D.), another former senior official of the Abiy regime, has exposed how Abiy orchestrated political assassinations and staged incidents both before and during the genocidal war on Tigray. This included the murder of Simegnew Bekele, the chief project manager of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD); the staged June 2018 assassination attempt in Addis Ababa, which Abiy Ahmed used as a pretext to charge and attempt to hunt down the then Director General of the National Intelligence and Security Service, Getachew Assefa, and his Tigrayan colleagues. Milkessa has also exposed how Abiy continued using assassinations and fabricated plots during and after the genocidal war on Tigray to eliminate rivals and consolidate power.
These insider accounts make one thing clear: the genocidal war on Tigray was never a spontaneous clash or a defensive reaction but a deliberate and premeditated campaign orchestrated by Abiy Ahmed and his allies from the very beginning.
The Secret Pact: How Abiy and Isaias Planned a Genocidal War
Lurking behind the Nobel Peace Prize and international praise for Abiy Ahmed's 2018 rapprochement with Eritrea was not a genuine pursuit of peace but the deliberate forging of a genocidal war alliance. The Prime Minister's much-lauded reconciliation with Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki was not driven by the desire for regional stability or long-term diplomacy. Instead, it became the basis for a covert military alliance, carefully planned and executed to wage a genocidal war on Tigray.
While international media celebrated the optics, Abiy and Isaias were meeting in secret, including in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and later in Saudi Arabia, presenting a sanitized version of their alliance while laying the groundwork for a genocidal war. In September 2018, just three months after the peace declaration, the leaders formalized their alliance in Jeddah, hosted by Saudi King Salman, where they exchanged symbolic gifts and signed what was publicly framed as a historic peace agreement. Behind the scenes, however, it was a diplomatic performance that masked a darker intent.
The genocidal war on Tigray was never a spontaneous clash or a defensive reaction but a deliberate and premeditated campaign....."
The origins of the alliance trace back to September 5, 2018, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) signed the so-called Tripartite Alliance in Asmara. Officially titled the Joint Declaration on Comprehensive Cooperation Between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea, the accord was publicly presented as a commitment to promote regional peace and security in the Horn of Africa. However, the follow-up meetings in November 2018 and January 2020 hinted at a far deeper and more strategic coordination. By late January 2020, the three leaders convened again in Asmara for what was billed as another trilateral summit follow-up under the guise of strengthening regional cooperation. In reality, this highly secretive gathering laid the foundation for a covert military pact that would later be referred to as the Tripartite Alliance, centered on a shared objective of destroying the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and forcibly dismantling Tigray's autonomy.
Throughout 2020, both leaders made multiple visits to military installations. Isaias Afwerki traveled to Ethiopia, where he visited the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) together with Abiy Ahmed and his delegation and later toured Ethiopian military sites, including air force facilities. At the same time, Abiy Ahmed made both public and unpublicized trips to Eritrea, visiting strategic military sites in Sawa and Gherghera, where Ethiopian forces were reportedly stationed alongside Eritrean troops well before the outbreak of the genocidal war on Tigray. According to Mesfin Hagos, the former Eritrean Minister of Defense, elite Ethiopian military units were deployed to a secret base in Gherghera, near Asmara, under a covert security arrangement with Isaias Afwerki. These forces, he explained, intended to execute a "hammer-and-anvil" operation against the TPLF.
A 2021 New York Times investigation, backed by witness accounts, revealed that Abiy Ahmed's November 2020 genocidal war on Tigray was planned months in advance. It described secret meetings with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and at least 14 official and several unannounced visits between the two leaders, often one-on-one with no aides or note-takers present. The investigation detailed how Abiy Ahmed moved Ethiopian troops toward Tigray, sent military cargo planes into Eritrea in secret, and collaborated with Isaias to prepare a joint offensive against their common enemy, the TPLF. Eritrean officials were also active in Ethiopia's Amhara region, meeting local security leaders and later agreeing to train 60,000 Amhara forces who would later fight in Tigray. According to the investigation, those in Abiy Ahmed's regime who opposed the genocidal war on Tigray were sidelined, interrogated, or forced out. The New York Times concluded that this was not a war forced on Abiy, as he has claimed, but a war of choice, one that began with his alliance with Isaias after the 2018 peace deal and was carefully planned even before Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize in December 2019.
According to the New York Times investigation, Abiy Ahmed's war on Tigray was not a sudden response but a calculated campaign planned months in advance in coordination with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. Yet even as this premeditated war unfolded, both leaders denied Eritrea's involvement at every stage. They insisted it was a limited "law enforcement operation" by Ethiopia alone. These denials persisted even as Eritrean troops crossed into Tigray and began committing massacres, widespread sexual violence, looting, and destruction of infrastructure.
According to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, Eritrean forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Axum in November 2020. Other evidence from satellite imagery, humanitarian agencies, and eyewitness accounts showed that entire Tigrayan towns and villages, such as Axum, Mahbere Dego, Mariam Dengelat, Debre Abay, Zalambessa, Goda, and Bora Selewa, were razed, humanitarian aid was deliberately blocked, and mass atrocities were systematically carried out against Tigrayan civilians (CNN, Channel 4 News, Al Jazeera, The Washington Post). Eritrea's involvement in the genocidal war on Tigray was only publicly admitted months later by the Ethiopian and Eritrean regimes, long after the massacres, mass starvation tactics, and scorched-earth destruction had already taken their toll. Since then, the international community, including the United States government, the European Union, and the United Nations, has repeatedly called for the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops from the territory of Tigray.
Abiy and Isaias were not alone in preparing for war on Tigray. For many years, Isaias cultivated close ties with Berhanu Nega, leader of Ginbot 7, who lived as his guest in Eritrea and became one of his closest Ethiopian allies. From exile, Berhanu openly called for armed struggle against the TPLF and worked hand in hand with Isaias in a long campaign to undermine Tigray and help advance Isaias's ambition to crush the TPLF leadership. His alliance with Eritrea was part of the same project that laid the groundwork for the genocidal war on Tigray long before 2020.By the time Abiy Ahmed came to power, Berhanu and colleagues, including Andargachew Tsege, had already legitimized the alignment of Ethiopian and Eritrean interests against Tigray. When the war on Tigray finally broke out in November 2020, Berhanu's years of collaboration with Isaias paid off. Abiy soon brought him into his regime, appointing him as Minister of Education, a reward for his loyalty and his role in paving the way for war on Tigray. Under his leadership, the ministry even allocated millions of birr in financial support for the war effort against Tigray, a clear sign of his allegiance and complicity.
All of this meant that when November 2020 arrived, Abiy Ahmed and his allies had their war machinery ready. What they still needed was a fabricated pretext to set it in motion.
The November 2020 Fabrication
In the days that followed, Ethiopian state media flooded the airwaves with a tightly controlled version of events, portraying the TPLF as the main aggressor and framing the war on Tigray as a quick, targeted "law enforcement operation." Officials spoke in unison, repeating the same talking points that the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) had been "attacked," while omitting the months of troop movements, secret military coordination with Eritrea, and political purges that had set the stage for the war on Tigray.
In the months leading up to November 2020, Abiy Ahmed systematically dismantled Tigrayan influence at the federal level. Senior officers were purged from the army and security services, and Tigrayan officials were removed from key regime posts. These moves were part of a deliberate effort to isolate and weaken Tigray's leadership in preparation for a genocidal war. Abiy's consolidation of power was not only political but also deeply personal. He has often fantasized that, at the age of seven, his mother told him he would one day be the seventh king of Ethiopia, a vision he appears to have internalized. This delusional self-image, coupled with his centralizing agenda, helps explain his determination to dismantle Ethiopia's federal arrangement and crush Tigray's autonomy. As The New Yorker later observed, Abiy's consolidation of power laid the political groundwork for a war that was anything but spontaneous.
This narrative was not only for domestic consumption. Diplomats and regime spokespeople worked to sell the same story abroad, presenting it to foreign governments and international organizations as justification for immediate and overwhelming military action. The aim was to delegitimize any resistance from Tigray, erase the complex political disputes that preceded the war on Tigray, and secure the tacit acceptance, or at least the complete silence, of the international community.
According to multiple investigations, the Ethiopian regime's account was riddled with inconsistencies. Testimonies from former Ethiopian and Eritrean officials, satellite imagery of pre-positioned troops, and leaked military orders pointed to a coordinated assault prepared well before November 4, 2020. Far from being an unexpected provocation, the so-called "attack on the Northern Command" incident became the carefully chosen spark to ignite a genocidal war that had already been decided in advance, an Orwellian moment in which a single manipulated event erased context, shifted blame, and persuaded much of the world that the war was necessary, even righteous.
The New 2025 Narrative: Preparing for Another War
Nearly five years after launching the first genocidal war on Tigray, Abiy Ahmed is once again recycling the same playbook. His regime now accuses Tigray of preparing for another war, even as Tigrayan leaders have consistently reaffirmed their commitment to peace and peaceful negotiations, particularly through the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, including the peaceful return of the constitutionally recognized territories of Tigray.
Behind the scenes, however, Abiy is actively remobilizing. He has repeatedly violated the terms of the Pretoria Agreement. However, on television and in state-controlled media, he continues to speak of "peace," a peace that, in practice, means Tigray must remain silent, disarmed, and erased.
During the last war, Abiy's regime imposed a total communication blackout on Tigray and deliberately blocked humanitarian aid, cutting Tigray off from the outside world. No food, no medicine, or no information were allowed in. Millions of civilians were left trapped, starving en masse in complete darkness. Today, as he remobilizes for yet another war, he is following the same playbook. The same machinery of repression and obstruction is being prepared, with the clear intent of finishing what remains of Tigray after the genocide.
Tigray is not seeking war. It wants justice."
Just as in 2020, the propaganda machine is now focusing on Tigray, portraying it as the aggressor. Abiy has now unleashed what many call his "digital soldiers," a coordinated army of propagandists working through Facebook, TikTok, Twitter, and Instagram. Their posts flood social media with slogans like "No war on Tigray," messages that seem pacifist on the surface but are designed to shift blame back onto Tigray. What makes it even more tragic is that many ordinary Tigrayans online have taken these messages at face value, unaware that they are part of a larger propaganda strategy aimed at concealing Abiy's preparations for a second round of war on Tigray.
At the same time, Abiy has dispatched delegations under the banner of the so-called "National Dialogue Commission," elders and religious representatives sent to Tigray as if to beg its leaders not to start another war. On state television, he presents these gestures as proof that he alone is seeking peace. But this is pure theater. It is the same tactic he used in 2020: posing as a reluctant statesman while secretly preparing the offensive that unleashed one of the deadliest genocidal wars of the 21st century.
Tigray's leaders, for their part, have repeatedly pleaded that they do not want another war. They have consistently called for dialogue, respect for constitutional order, and the genuine implementation of the Pretoria Agreement. Abiy, however, has shown no intention of honoring these commitments. Instead, he has used the agreement as a delaying tactic, buying time to wage a silent genocidal war through mass starvation, deliberate neglect of displaced people, and the systematic denial of medicine and humanitarian aid.
Meanwhile, Abiy's propaganda has found allies among a handful of Tigrayans who have aligned themselves with his regime. Members of the newly formed Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party and figures from the former interim administration, now based in Addis Ababa, including its chairman Getachew Reda and General Tsadkan Gebretensae, have publicly called on Abiy to intervene in Tigray, by which they clearly meant opening war and forcibly "removing the TPLF." In a recent Tigrigna interview, Tsadkan stressed that the Abiy regime should no longer show patience and must instead move quickly to intervene in Tigray and eliminate the TPLF. But Abiy's war has never been about removing a single party or a few of its leaders. The past four years have shown that his real target is the people of Tigray and their Tigrayan identity.
What makes this turn even harder to accept is Getachew Reda's recent appointment as Abiy Ahmed's advisor on East African Affairs, a role many see as a deliberate move to weaken Tigray and manipulate regional dynamics, including in Eritrea, to Abiy's advantage. The irony is that during the war on Tigray, Getachew was one of the main individuals Abiy most wanted eliminated, not for anything personal, but simply because he was a Tigrayan politician.
As Getachew himself recalled in an interview with The New Yorker, an Ethiopian drone strike targeted his home in Mekelle: "It was a direct hit. I don't know how I survived." After he tweeted about the attack, he explained that a second strike destroyed what was left of his house and killed nine people, including security guards and neighbors. "It destroyed what was left of my house and killed more people, including security men and some of my neighbors," he said.
How, then, can a man who was continuously hunted by Abiy's drones now work alongside him? For many Tigrayans, this is not only a collaboration but also a betrayal. Seeing a few Tigrayans serving in Abiy's destructive project against Tigray deepens that sense of betrayal, especially for the youth who fought, starved, and lost so much in a genocidal war that was never about politics but about their very existence and survival.
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Another figure, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, has also played a role in reshaping the story of the war on Tigray to Abiy Ahmed's advantage. In an article published on March 10, 2025, in The Africa Report titled "Tigray cannot be the battleground for Ethiopia and Eritrea," Tsadkan warns of renewed war but mentions only the crimes committed by Eritrean forces. He deliberately highlights Eritrean transgressions while omitting any mention of crimes committed by Ethiopian troops. That omission is not accidental. By placing all the blame on Eritrea while sparing Abiy's regime from accountability, Tsadkan helps shift the narrative and ease pressure on the very regime that waged a genocidal war on the people of Tigray.
This contradicts the documented reality. International media, human rights organizations, and other credible sources have consistently reported that both Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, along with Amhara regional militia and Fano, carried out the genocide in Tigray through massacres, sexual violence, mass starvation, and the systematic destruction of civilian life. For many Tigrayans, Tsadkan's refusal to acknowledge Abiy's crimes is as painful as Getachew's collaboration.And in some ways, it is even more dangerous. By selectively rewriting the story and leaving Abiy's crimes out of the picture, Tsadkan gives him political cover. This kind of narrative manipulation shapes how history will be told and how responsibility is assigned, making his betrayal potentially more damaging in the long term.
Why This Matters?
The roles of figures like Tsadkan show how Abiy relies on others to help reshape the story of the war. However, the greater danger is when people, both inside and outside Ethiopia, begin to accept this false balance. It is important for Tigrayans, Ethiopians, and the international community not to fall for it. To claim that the political and military leadership in Tigray is preparing for war is not only misleading but also dangerous. Tigray is not seeking war. It wants justice. It is asking for peace built on truth, on territorial integrity, and on accountability, but not peace imposed at gunpoint.
Abiy Ahmed's version of peace is the same lie George Orwell warned us about: a "peace" that demands war, silence, surrender, and submission. It is a peace that burns villages, buries children, and hides behind denial. Abiy is the only one preparing for another war. Tigray has been clear; it seeks dialogue, not destruction. To pretend otherwise only rewards the warmonger and punishes the victims.
A Call to the Well-Meaning and Misled
The problem with false narratives is that once figures like Getachew and Tsadkan repeat them, some Tigrayan activists on social media are already amplifying them, giving Abiy's version of events even greater reach. To our Tigrayan brothers and sisters who now repeat Abiy's narrative on social media, whether out of fatigue, fear, or a longing for normalcy, this is not the time to be naive. The same man who waged a genocidal war in 2020, who invited foreign armies into Tigray, who cut off food, medicine, electricity, and banking, and who used mass rape, mass starvation, and famine as weapons of war, has not suddenly become a man of peace.
To believe otherwise is to betray the memory of the hundreds of thousands lost, the women violated, the children mass starved, and the land of Tigray occupied. For Tigrayans, this is not about politics. It is about survival.
Knowing Abiy Ahmed, Knowing the Game
As George Orwell wrote, "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
Let us not forget who started the war in 2020. Abiy Ahmed's talk of peace is a mask for violence. His so-called reforms are tools of repression. His promises of unity are built on erasing others. Tigray is not calling for war. Tigray is calling for justice, dignity, and a lasting peace. And if we fail to see that clearly, we risk allowing another genocide to happen. AS
Editor's Note: Desta Haileselassie Hagos (PhD) is a Lecturer of Computer Science and AI/ML Technical Lead Manager at Howard University, Washington, DC, USA. In addition to his academic role, Desta has been documenting Tigrayan civilian mass atrocities since the outbreak of the genocidal war on Tigray in November 2020. He manages https://tigraygenocide.com and can be reached at [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer's and do not necessarily reflect the editorial of Addis Standard.
