Summary:
- Liberia commits to cutting emissions by 44 percent by 2030 - tripling previous target - with ambitious plans including 2,000 electric vehicles and dramatic increase in renewable energy
- Implementation requires $2.5-3bn in funding - far exceeding the country's domestic capacity, with only 10 percent of targets achievable without international support, according to plan
- Previous climate commitments achieved limited results due to insufficient funding but expert says targets are achievable if key sectors receive proper resources
Liberia has approved its third Nationally Determined Contribution committing to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 44 percent by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The plan, unveiled by Boakai government officials at a validation event with international partners and stakeholders at the Monrovia City Hall on Thursday, commits the country to ambitious targets in order to play its role in the global effort to tackle climate change in the next five years.
So-called 'greenhouse' gases refers to the emissions released primarily by burning fossil fuels that are then trapped in the planet's atmosphere leading to global warming. Global warming is leading to profound changes in the climate and weather systems. Experts have found cutting emissions is essential to preventing catastrophic consequences for all life on the planet.
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Liberia's new plan marks a threefold increase in targets from the second NDC and reflects much more ambitious targets under the administration of President Joseph Boakai. It commits to cut emissions from energy by 35 percent, forestry and waste management by 45, and transportation by 50 percent. It includes the development of 150 megawatt renewable energy capacity through solar, hydro and other methods, and the introduction of 2,000 electric vehicles which run without burning fossil fuels.
"The NDC is the government promise and pathway. It is about protecting our people, strengthening our economy, and reducing the pollution that drives climate change," said Urey Yarkpawolo, executive director of the Environmental Protection Agency.
Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are the plans each country submits under the Paris Agreement to cut emissions and adapt to climate change, with updates required every five years to show greater ambition. Liberia submitted its first NDC in 2015 and is now obliged to deliver an updated version that strengthens targets and timelines. The revisions are meant to align Liberia's climate actions with global efforts to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. They also provide a roadmap for mobilizing international finance and technical support to implement the country's climate goals.
NDCs contain three main elements: emission reduction targets (specific goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions), climate adaptation strategies (preparations for dealing with impacts like rising seas and extreme weather), and implementation schedules (typically 5-10 year timeframes with mandatory updates every five years to strengthen commitments). These plans serve as the foundation of international climate cooperation, ensuring each country contributes to both global emission reductions and climate resilience building.
The latest plan has won praise from experts who note that Liberia already emits a much lower per capita rate than most countries anywhere.
"It is achievable because right now, even our emissions are low," said Nathaniel Blama, an environmental expert who spearheaded the development of Liberia's first NDC and led the Environment Protection Agency during the second NDC process. "There are just certain sectors we need to focus on: agriculture to help farmers build their capacity and reduce the work on shifting cultivation and explore smart agriculture practices because that's one of the areas with high population of emission levels."
"Another area is waste -- the high concentration of maintenance. If we can manage our waste well and also look at our energy sources, increase our energy capacity. Once we can do those things, yes, by 2030 it's achievable."
The plan looks particularly ambitious compared with the last NDC in 2021 when Liberia pledged to reduce emissions by 15 percent. An analysis in March by Abraham Tumbey, programme coordinator at the United Nations Development Programme, showed Liberia achieved just 20 percent of its targeted greenhouse gas reductions by 2024 and secured $573 million in international climate finance commitments, less than half of which has been received.
Jerome Nyenka, a climate change expert who was the acting head of the Environmental Protection Agency under the Sirleaf administration gave more details. "The energy sector saw notable advancements, with cumulative hydropower generation amounting to 105 megawatts and solar energy production totaling 5.6 mega watts between 2021 and 2024. The transport sector experienced the adoption of electric vehicles, including two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and four-wheelers, with a total of 175 electric vehicles in use. The forestry sector created 46,000 hectares of forest primarily through natural regeneration."
However, there were critical gaps remain in financing, gender responsiveness, and integration of vulnerable communities in climate action.
"I think the first NDC was ambitious, and because of that, it didn't receive the kind of support or funding from national and international sources; its implementation was low," Blama said. "Unfortunately, we didn't implement as could be required to meet our target."
Implementation of the latest NDC requires $2.5-3 billion in financing by 2030 according to the plan though Blama said it could go much higher. As international donors pull back support for Africa, funding will be a key concern.
The plan splits its 44 percent reduction target into 10 percent "unconditional" commitment using domestic resources and 34 percent "conditional" on international support.
Nyenka urged government to fund the effort by using existing budget allocations to various sectors. "With that approach, Liberia can achieve its unconditional targets of 10 percent commitments in the NDC and will rely on international support to achieve 34 percent of the conditional targets."
The government plans to pursue international climate funds, private sector partnerships, carbon credit revenues from forest conservation, diaspora investment initiatives, and development of capital markets.
"The validation of Liberia's NDC 3.0 signifies a huge political will on the part of the Government and its partners," said Nyenka. "Liberia now expects a robust NDC 3.0 implementation through institutional collaboration, and working with the private sector to ensure investments flow from the private sector through tested and reliable financial mechanisms, like blended climate finance, green bond, carbon market, etc."
"Our NDC is a bit ambitious; it sets a high target... implementing that NDC with every priority, nobody is going to give you that money on a silver platter. We need to find ways of raising money to fund our NDC," said Blama.
Protecting Forest is Key to New Plan
Forests covering 42 percent of Liberia's landmass are central to the climate strategy. Liberia lost 27 percent of its tree cover in the 23 years to 2024 according to the Global Forest Watch tracker. The NDC plans to cut deforestation rates by 10 percent while establishing new protected areas and community forestry programs.
In the energy sector, the plan seeks to increase renewable energy supply by 75 percent. This includes on-grid supply through the development of 150 megawatts of solar and hydro capacity -- a massive infrastructure undertaking for a country still struggling with electricity access. Liberia is currently constructing a solar farm at the Mount Coffee plant.
Inclusion was a big priority for the Boakai EPA and the new NDC allocates 30 percent of climate finance to women-led initiatives and 20 percent to youth programs. The plan targets creating 5,000 green jobs, integrating climate education into school curricula, and establishing gender-responsive cash transfer systems. It has included new and specific national actions such as land rights, children's rights, women's rights, persons with disabilities, water, sanitation and hygiene and freshwater ecosystems.
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"We want to acknowledge the challenges that women and other underprivileged populations face that are unique to their abilities, but also, that when we get this right, the overall benefit is to Liberia," said Caroline Bowah, a gender consultant who worked on the plan.
The Challenge Ahead
But experts acknowledge that reducing emissions will have little impact on Liberia's experience of climate change. All of Africa contributing just 4 percent of global emissions, it is the big emitters like China, the U.S. and India that will determine how high global temperatures rise.
Adaption will be Liberia's biggest concern. About 60 percent of the population lives along coastlines threatened by sea-level rise and erosion. The agriculture-dependent economy employs 30 percent of the workforce and faces threats from unpredictable weather patterns.
Climate projections indicate that without action, climate impacts could shrink Liberia's economy by up to 15 percent and push 1.3 million people into poverty by 2050.
Experts and government underscored the importance of a national ownership of the process -- the relevant stakeholders and stake actors in the different sectors take responsibility. "It is the collective efforts of the implementation of the NDC that will help Liberia build its resilience against the impact of climate change," said Blama.
"Delay means death," warned Christine Umutoni, a UN country representative. "We must act boldly and urgently. This validation should be more than a ceremony. Let it be another launchpad for action, a signal for hope, and a true commitment for future generations."
The validation positions Liberia for COP30 in Brazil, where the country will host its first national pavilion to showcase climate initiatives and attract investment.The NDC 3.0 document will be formally submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change following the validation process.
This story was a collaboration with New Narratives as part of the "Investigating Liberia" project. The Swedish Embassy provided funding, but the founder had no say in the story's content.
