Addis Abeba — For a country where a university degree has long been a beacon of hope, the latest national exam results have cast a long and ominous shadow. The Ministry of Education's announcement, through Minister Professor Berhanu Nega, confirmed the fears of a nation: a mere 8.4% of students--48,929 out of 585,882--attained the minimum passing score of 50%, qualifying them for university enrollment. This figure, while representing a slight improvement from the previous year's 5.4% and the 3.3% pass rate in 2023, paints a consistent picture of a profound systemic fracture that extends far beyond the classroom. The fallout from this educational crisis is already being felt in Ethiopia's higher education institutions and is contributing to a growing tide of social and economic instability.
Systemic failure, not strict control on cheating
The Ministry of Education has often pointed to a crackdown on widespread exam cheating as a primary reason for low pass rates. The decision to administer the 2022 exam inside university campuses and attended by professors was a direct response to a pattern of exam leaks and misconduct. While this measure is crucial for ensuring the integrity of the exams, it cannot serve as a scapegoat for a broken system. The violent incidents at Debre Tabor University, where a student was killed and others were injured, and the voluntary walkout of over 12,000 students in the Amhara region reveal a deep-seated frustration and a rejection of a system that students felt had failed to prepare them. This highlights a culture of academic dishonesty that is a symptom of a much larger illness--a system where passing is not tied to learning. As commentators and experts have rightly questioned, how does one explain the abysmal performance of a staggering 1,249 schools that failed to have a single student pass?
The fact that over a third of all schools in the country could not produce a single passing student is not a problem of individual cheating; it is a direct indictment of the system itself. The blame cannot be placed solely on students for their inability to cheat; it must be directed at a system that has failed to adequately prepare them. A government ministry cannot be judged on its ability to stop cheating; its true measure of success is its ability to empower students to pass on their own merit.
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The persistent failure is not for a lack of effort or resources. For years, the government has been implementing projects like the General Education Quality Improvement Program (GEQUIP), often with significant local and foreign funding. These projects were designed to improve teacher quality, upgrade school facilities, and enhance student achievement. Despite these interventions, the outcomes remain unclear. In a move to deflect criticism, the Ministry of Education has largely blamed the failures of the education system on the past regime, the EPRDF. They argue that the EPRDF prioritized quantity over quality by passing a high number of students to universities to inflate enrollment numbers. While it is true that the EPRDF pursued a policy of rapid university expansion, the question remains whether it is possible to exclusively blame the previous administration for a crisis that has only worsened in the last six years.
The current leadership has had ample time to implement its own reforms and correct the alleged mistakes of the past. The ministry's own acknowledgment that the problem has been "snowballing" for years suggests a failure to properly diagnose the core issues before implementing reforms. Without a clear understanding of the root causes--be it teacher capacity, administrative inefficiency, or political interference--any reform, no matter how well-intentioned, is bound to falter.
The statistics on regional performance paint a bleak picture of educational inequality. While urban centers like Addis Abeba and Harari boast pass rates above 20%, many rural regions are failing to produce a single successful university candidate. This stark urban-rural divide is the most significant factor in the educational crisis, revealing a system of unequal opportunity. For a student in a remote, rural school, the challenges are immense. They face dilapidated infrastructure, a lack of basic teaching materials, and a severe shortage of qualified teachers. The curriculum, designed for an urban context, often fails to resonate or be properly taught in these environments.
The journey to the exam center itself, often far from their homes, adds another layer of stress and difficulty. This creates a "tale of two Ethiopias," where one segment of the population has access to quality education and a pathway to a better future, while the other is trapped in a system designed for failure. The concept of equity and access to education is not merely an abstract ideal; it is a fundamental human right, and its absence is a national security concern.
In addition to the urban-rural divide, a more immediate and tangible problem has emerged: the chronic and widespread shortage of textbooks. As a new school year begins, numerous schools across the country have reported significant delays in receiving student textbooks. This is not a new issue. For years, students have been forced to start classes without the necessary learning materials, with the Ministry of Education repeatedly citing logistical issues, foreign exchange shortages, and complex procurement processes. In a country where access to the internet, computers, and well-stocked libraries is a luxury, the textbook remains the single most important resource for both teachers and students.
As reported in November 2024, students at Gozo Bamush Secondary School, located in the Mareqa district of the Dawro Zone in the South West Ethiopia region, expressed grave concerns. According to 12th-grade students like Meiron Tekle Mariam, Andualem Bala, and Feven Yishak, their school lacks basic educational resources, including textbooks, computers, laboratories, and an organized library. Students explained that they often have to rely solely on a teacher's lectures, missing out on practical science education. This, they fear, will have a major negative impact on their performance in the national exam.
The blame cannot be placed solely on students for their inability to cheat; it must be directed at a system that has failed to adequately prepare them."
In the Sidama region, the education bureau has acknowledged this issue and announced it is working to ensure that a textbook is available for every student for each subject. While this effort is commendable, the fact that such a basic resource is still being delivered piecemeal highlights the severity of the long-standing problem. The Ministry of Education's failure to ensure the timely delivery of these essential materials is a fundamental and unforgivable administrative failure that directly contributes to the low pass rates.
Teachers' plight, schools' scapegoating
In Ethiopia, the teaching profession, once esteemed as a noble vocation vital to nation-building and societal progress, finds itself in crisis. The aspiration to become a teacher is waning among the youth, overshadowed by the allure of more lucrative careers in sectors such as medicine, engineering, and information technology. This troubling trend generates critical questions about the future of education in the country, emphasizing the urgent need for reform. Many educators face economic hardships that starkly contrast the esteem generally associated with their profession. The systemic issues within Ethiopia's educational landscape threaten not only the teachers themselves but also the nation's future by jeopardizing the foundation of educational progress essential for development.
The failures of the education system are a direct reflection of the challenges facing its most critical component: the teachers. A recent evaluation by the ministry reveals that only a quarter of elementary and high school teachers successfully passed an exam designed to assess their proficiency. This finding is deeply concerning and directly relates to the quality of education provided.
This dire situation of Ethiopian teachers and its effect on the education system have been well-documented. One of the articles emphasized the importance of enhancing efforts to provide schools with necessary resources and improving training institutions for teachers. The article noted that this has been an ongoing issue since the recruitment of teachers and that the ministry can improve the quality of education by improving the caliber of teachers and upgrading the teachers' training institutions. Expecting students to achieve good scores while ignoring the teaching-learning process throughout the year is a "problematic approach," especially with teaching being one of the lowest-paid professions.
In a remarkable display of shifting responsibility, the Ministry of Education has called on parents to hold schools accountable for the abysmal results, particularly those 1,249 schools that failed to have a single student pass. This move, however, is a transparent attempt at scapegoating. The fundamental question is: who controls and administers these schools? The answer is unequivocally the Ministry of Education. The curriculum, teacher training standards, and resource allocation--or lack thereof--are all dictated by the ministry. The ministry sets the national exams,determines the passing marks, and oversees the very system that has failed these schools.
A school's failure to produce a single passing student is not an isolated incident of incompetence; it is a direct and damning indictment of the ministry's own failure. When textbooks fail to arrive on time, when teacher salaries are meager, and when the curriculum is not fit for purpose, the responsibility lies at the top. The failure of the schools is, by definition, the failure of the ministry that governs them.
Educational Expansion: Quantity over quality
Over the past two decades, the country has made significant strides in expanding access to education. From a mere 10 million students a decade ago, the current enrollment has skyrocketed to over 30 million students, spread across more than 47,000 primary and secondary schools.
This surge is equally evident in higher education. The undergraduate participation rate, indicative of higher education supply, has witnessed significant growth--from a low 0.7% in 1996 to 12% in 2019. Moreover, there has been a noteworthy expansion in higher education with the establishment of many public universities, now reaching close to 50.
In its recent assessment, however, the Ministry of Education has identified that out of the 47,000 primary and secondary schools, only four were able to meet the established standards. Astonishingly, 85.9% of the primary and secondary schools were classified as "significantly below standard." This surge signifies an ample supply of higher education, but it also exposes a deep-rooted quality crisis that the current system is struggling to address.
The low pass rates have also created a devastating vacuum in Ethiopia's higher education system. With hundreds of thousands of students failing to qualify for university, public universities, which have expanded rapidly over the past two decades, now face the unprecedented challenge of operating far below their capacity. In 2004, these institutions were capable of admitting 98,404 regular undergraduate students. By 2018, this capacity had grown to admit 388,186 students. The system has shown it has the infrastructure and capacity to handle a massive influx of students, yet it is currently failing to produce them. This threatens not only their financial sustainability but also the entire model of mass higher education that the country has pursued. The dream of becoming a university student, a path to social mobility for many, has been abruptly cut short for a vast majority of the nation's youth. The Ministry of Education has offered a glimmer of hope by stating that some students who scored below 50% may be accepted based on university capacity, but this is a reactive solution to a long-standing, unaddressed problem.
The low pass rate and higher fail rate are a national crisis that will lead to hopelessness, crime, and migration if not addressed with urgency."
What would motivate students to study hard when their role model students fail to pass the national exam? When they see that 1,249 schools across the country passed zero students, the question for every young person becomes, "Why should I study?" What is the purpose of dedicating years to a system that, statistically, seems to be designed for failure? This psychological blow, this crisis of motivation, is perhaps the most tragic consequence of the Ministry's failure. It erodes the very foundation of education--the belief that hard work and dedication will lead to a better future.
Wounds of conflict
Perhaps the most tragic aspect of these low results is the tangible impact of ongoing conflicts. The data directly reflects the profound instability in regions like Oromia and Amhara. The Ministry of Education disclosed that 553 schools in the Oromia region had no students who achieved the passing grade, a figure significantly higher than that of any other region. In the Amhara region, only half of the eligible students were able to sit for the exam due to ongoing conflict, which has seen over 3,000 schools closed and millions of children out of school.
The stories from the ground are even more chilling. A teacher from a school in the West Guji Zone described a region in crisis, where only 17 out of 712 students passed the exam. The conflict has not only disrupted the learning process but has also physically damaged schools, with some becoming battlegrounds and military camps.
Falling behind East African peers
While the challenges facing Ethiopia's education system are complex, they are not unique to the country. Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa struggle with low educational quality and poor student outcomes. However, a comparison with its East African neighbors reveals a deeply concerning disparity. For example, countries like Rwanda have reported significantly higher pass rates in their national examinations. In 2024, Rwanda's national pass rate for primary leaving examinations was 75%, and for ordinary-level secondary exams, it was 64%.
This stands in stark contrast to Ethiopia's 8.4% university entrance pass rate. Even countries with their own educational challenges, such as Uganda and Kenya, generally demonstrate better performance on key indicators like literacy rates and primary school completion. Ethiopia's literacy rate, at around 52%, is also one of the lowest in the world and falls well below the average for low-income countries.
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This comparison indicates that while there is a general crisis of educational quality in the region, Ethiopia's situation is particularly acute. The systemic issues in Ethiopia are not just a matter of "slow progress" but a fundamental breakdown in the system's ability to prepare students for the next level of education, setting the nation back from its regional peers in the race for human capital development.
Broken education, broken future
The most pressing question now is what becomes of the hundreds of thousands of students who have no academic path forward. With limited vocational and technical training opportunities, many face a future of economic stagnation. This scarcity of opportunity is directly tied to a rise in several critical social problems. The first is rising migration. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), outward movements along the Eastern Route from Ethiopia to Yemen increased by 34% between January and June 2024-2025, with more than 238,000 migrants recorded. An overwhelming 98% cited economic reasons for leaving. This is a stark consequence of a failing education system that offers young people little hope for the future.
The second challenge is the erosion of social cohesion. A large cohort of unemployed and disillusioned youth provides fertile ground for unrest and crime. The sharp disparities in outcomes between public and private schools, as well as across regions, further entrench social divisions, fostering resentment and posing a serious threat to national stability.
Call for radical action
The low pass rate and higher fail rate are a national crisis that will lead to hopelessness, crime, and migration if not addressed with urgency. The current trajectory is unsustainable. The government must acknowledge that the problem is not with the students but with a system that has failed them. The national exam's purpose of "ensuring quality" has been achieved at the cost of the nation's future, as it has been implemented with a flawed and rushed approach. It is crucial to concentrate on improving the teacher training program at the foundational level. The government is inadvertently creating a problem; it's like the cobra effect, where the solution itself becomes a problem. The path to quality should not be this way; it should not be at this pace.
For Ethiopia to turn this adversity into an opportunity, a radical shift in mindset is required. This must include, first and foremost, a critical review of the current Ministry of Education policy, particularly the national exam, by the government. The policy should be redesigned to take into consideration the overall economic situation, resource availability, student readiness, education motivation culture, teacher capacity and motivation, and school readiness.
Second, it is important to address the rural-urban disparities as a foundational element of any reform. Furthermore, investing in teacher quality through better pay and professional development is essential.
In addition, prioritizing the reopening and rehabilitation of schools in conflict-affected regions is vital. Finally, student evaluation should be reframed to go beyond relying solely on standardized exams and instead take into consideration the diverse range of factors that impact learning outcomes.
The future of Ethiopia depends on its ability to provide quality education for all, not just a privileged few. The data is clear; the consequences are dire. It is time for decisive action. AS
Editor's Note: Mohammedawel Hagos is a doctoral candidate at Mekelle University and serves as a lecturer at Worabe University. He can be reached at [email protected]
