The Zanu PF political landscape is increasingly volatile, and if current tensions are not carefully managed, the party could face an implosion that threatens its key structures and processes, a political analyst has warned.
In an interview with NewZimbabwe.com, political analyst Eldred Masunungure said the outcome of the ruling party's ongoing succession battle will hinge on who holds the strategic cards within the power structure.
Masunungure cautioned that delegates attending the ongoing Zanu PF National People's Conference in Mutare must address internal divisions decisively to prevent a full-blown crisis.
"The long and short of it is that the Zanu PF pot is 'overboiling' and if not managed well, it may very well explode.
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"It is therefore incumbent upon the National People's Conference managers to sharpen their conflict resolution skills to abate a dangerous fallout," Masunungure said.
The conference, currently underway in Mutare is expected to deliberate on key issues including the ailing economy, corruption, and the 2030 agenda. However, the gathering has been overshadowed by factional wars between camps aligned to President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy Constantino Chiwenga.
During a Politburo meeting on Tuesday, Chiwenga reportedly questioned why Mnangagwa had not taken action against individuals named in a corruption dossier he presented earlier. Those implicated include controversial businessmen Wicknell Chivayo, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and gold dealer Pedzai Sakupwanya, who are accused of stealing millions from state coffers.
The dossier has triggered a fierce backlash from Mnangagwa's loyalists, including Zanu PF Secretary for Legal Affairs Ziyambi Ziyambi and party spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa, both of whom have publicly attacked the Vice President.
In response to the dossier, Ziyambi described Chiwenga as ignorant and accused him of treason, while Mutsvangwa slammed the VP for "turning the presidium into a kangaroo court."
Commenting on the power struggle, Masunungure said the decisive factor will be which camp is able to outmanoeuvre the other.
"The critical factor depends on who is capable of outmanoeuvring the other or, to use Donald Trump's language, 'who has the cards?'.
"From the vantage point of an outsider looking in, it appears like the incumbent Mnangagwa has most of the strategic cards courtesy of the power of incumbency, both in the party and the state.
"Chiwenga's military base has been significantly eroded and cannot be relied on to mount another 'military-assisted transition'. The balance of evidence suggests that Mnangagwa will emerge the winner, on account of the manipulation of incumbency."
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Recent changes within Zanu PF have further fuelled speculation of a deliberate purge of Chiwenga's allies.
Mnangagwa recently removed Obert Mpofu from the influential Secretary General post, reassigning him to the ICT department, and replaced him with Jacob Mudenda.
Within days, he also dismissed Zanu PF Director General Ezekiel Zabanyana, a move widely seen as an effort to weaken Chiwenga's internal support base.
Masunungure warned that the escalating factionalism could spill beyond the party, affecting national governance.
"The fallout will most probably infect the state, its key organs and processes. More broadly, it will further deepen and widen the already worrying societal polarisation."
Zanu PF is expected to hold its elective congress in 2027, where the party's succession question may be resolved. Some of the resolutions from the Mutare conference are expected to be implemented in the lead-up to that crucial event.
