Two years into his presidency, Joseph Nyuma Boakai, Sr. stands at a defining crossroads -- a moment that will shape his legacy and Liberia's future for generations. On his desk lies the so-called "Third Amendment" to the ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML) Mineral Development Agreement -- a deal so lopsided, so nakedly exploitative, that to sign it would be to mortgage Liberia's sovereignty for the next three-quarters of a century.
At first glance, the deal looks glittery. AML has reportedly placed US $200 million on the table as part of the package, a figure conveniently reflected in the Draft 2026 National Budget. That cash injection would nudge Liberia's annual budget past the much-touted US $1 billion mark for the first time in history -- a milestone every government since the war has dreamed of. But beneath that cosmetic triumph lies a trap.
We've been here before. We've warned against the obsession with budgetary symbolism -- the tendency of successive governments to trumpet "historic budgets" while ignoring how much of that money is actually sustainable, transformative revenue. Liberia's journey to a billion-dollar budget has been paved with borrowed money, donor inflows, and one-off windfalls. Now, once again, we are being asked to trade away our future for a quick headline.
Let us be clear: this is not an investment windfall. This is a buy-off.
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As one seasoned industry insider told the Daily Observer, "Essentially, what AML has done is seek to lock up the rail under its control for 75 years with these tricky legal clauses, then dropped $200 million bucks on the table as a distraction for controlling sovereign assets worth billions more in revenues. It is an absolute disgrace that Liberian negotiators allowed this nonsense, and the President must not approve it."
That quote cuts to the heart of the matter. AML's draft amendment is not a business proposal -- it is a seizure warrant dressed up as a concession. The document seeks to permanently cement AML's control of the Yekepa-Buchanan rail and port system, ensuring that no other operator can use Liberia's most strategic infrastructure without ArcelorMittal's permission. It's a monopoly in everything but name -- and it would cripple the multi-user rail regime that the Boakai Administration has championed as part of its ARREST Agenda for reform and transparency.
For all the fanfare surrounding that US $200 million "sweetener," let us be brutally honest: that money will vanish in less than three months. Salaries, subsidies, recurrent spending -- it will all be gone by mid-year, and Liberia will be left holding an empty bag while AML keeps the keys to the rail and port.
Is it worth it? Should we trade away control of an asset capable of generating billions of dollars in long-term revenue -- through multi-user access fees, concession agreements, and logistics tariffs -- for a temporary injection that will barely cover the government's wage bill?
What's more, the deal conveniently ignores the other companies already lined up to invest along the rail corridor. From Nimba to Buchanan, new exploration projects have been stalled, waiting for Liberia to open the rail under fair, independent management. This amendment would slam the door shut -- not just on them, but on Liberia's promise of fair competition and shared growth.
We've said it before, and we'll say it again: ArcelorMittal has shortchanged Liberia for two decades.
It has mined, shipped, and exported iron ore under terms that have yielded minimal returns for the state and its people. Worse still, AML is not even selling Liberia's ore to the global market. It is transferring it -- from Liberian soil to its own steel plants abroad -- meaning it sets its own prices, reports its own volumes, and pockets the profits abroad.
Now, from the leaked and signed versions of this new amendment we've seen, AML is demanding the right to export without proper inspection under Government oversight. In other words, Liberia's principal source of revenue from this operation would be determined entirely by AML itself.
How long must Liberia continue to enable this deceit? How long must other investors -- companies with billions of tons of iron ore waiting to move -- sit idle while AML blocks the rail, hoards the port, and manipulates the system? Seventy-five years?
President Boakai has promised reform. He has vowed transparency, good governance, and a Liberia that controls its own destiny. This is the moment to prove it.
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If he signs this deal, history will record him not as the reformer who reclaimed Liberia's sovereignty, but as the man who surrendered it -- for a fleeting illusion of fiscal glory.
The AML amendment is not a path to development; it is a detour into dependency. Liberia cannot claim "good governance" with one hand while signing away its rail, port, and minerals with the other. The President must reject this agreement, demand full legislative scrutiny, and insist that all future negotiations be conducted transparently through the National Investment Commission, as required by law.
The nation is watching. The world is watching. The U.S. Congress has just praised Liberia for progress toward a transparent, multi-user rail system under independent oversight. To sign this deal now would make a mockery of that praise -- and of the very principles the Boakai administration claims to uphold.
Mr. President, the first 'R' in your ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development includes Rail Roads. Therefore, this is not just another signature. It is your defining decision.
For the sake of Liberia's sovereignty, integrity, and future -- you must compel AML and the IMCC to produce a better deal.
