Nigeria's headline inflation eased to 16.05% in October 2025, down from 18.02% in September, marking a noticeable improvement in price conditions. New data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows year-on-year inflation dropping to 17.82%, a major decline from 33.88% in October 2024.

Part of the sharp annual fall reflects a shift to a new base year, but the data still points to a meaningful slowdown in price pressures.

Monthly inflation, however, edged up to 0.93% from 0.72%, showing that while inflation is moderating, prices continue to rise at a modest pace.

Urban inflation fell to 15.65% year-on-year, down from 36.38% a year earlier, though monthly inflation picked up to 1.14%. Rural inflation eased to 15.86% year-on-year from 31.59% in October 2024. Monthly, rural inflation slowed to 0.45%, compared with 0.67% in September.

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Food inflation recorded one of the steepest improvements, falling to 13.12% year-on-year from 39.16% in the previous year. Monthly food inflation came in at -0.37%, up from -1.57% in September, driven by rising prices of onions, fruits, vegetables, and meat items. The twelve-month food inflation average eased to 21.96%.

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Key Takeaways

The October numbers point to a continued easing of Nigeria's inflation cycle, helped by base-year effects, tighter policy earlier in the year, and improved supply conditions. The gap between last year's 33.88% peak and the current 17.82% annual rate illustrates how quickly headline pressures have cooled. Still, the rise in month-on-month inflation suggests that underlying price growth has not fully stabilised. Urban areas experienced slightly stronger monthly pressures, while rural areas saw some moderation. Food inflation remains central to the outlook. The sharp annual drop reflects statistical adjustments, but the uptick in monthly food inflation -- though still negative -- shows that price gains in some staples persist. For policymakers, the challenge is sustaining the disinflation trend without undermining growth. Continued exchange-rate stability, improved logistics, and a steady food supply pipeline will be key. The data offer early signs of progress, but durability will depend on keeping monthly inflation contained in the months ahead.