Monrovia — Liberia's main opposition political party, the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) following its analysis of the proposed 2026 National Budget, opines that this financial instrument is excessively ambitious rather than realistic.
And so, the immediate past ruling establishment is craving the Legislature, and the Liberian people to act decisively in defense of fiscal prudence and economic stability.
"After rigorous review of the Draft FY2026 National Budget, we conclude that the proposed US$1.211 billion envelope is excessively ambitious, built on speculative revenues and non-recurring windfalls, and exposes Liberia to serious fiscal and implementation risks," stated the party.
Predicated upon this, the CDC is demanding that the budget be returned to the President for immediate revision, anchored on confirmed core revenues and credible financing assumptions.
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Fragile Resource Envelope Detested
In this, the CDC detests fragile resource envelope, stating that excluding US$200 million contingent revenue from AML Signature Bonus and Asset Recovery, the estimated Core Domestic is US$940million.
This, the former ruling party indicates, represents an addition of US$135million to the FY2025 Domestic Revenue of US$804. Even though this is ambitious, given the anticipated underperformance of the FY2025 Non-tax revenue by US$6 million (US$146m VS US$140m estimated collection).
It observes that the US$940 million projection could still be achieved through smart and aggressive tax administration strategies.
The fragility and risk to full collection of the entire Draft FY2026 is mainly anticipated in the contingent revenue, inclusive of the AML US$200 million signature bonus.
Significant Risk to Execution of Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP)
According to the CDC, the execution of the US$281 million in PSIP projection largely depends on the realization of US$200 million from the AML signature bonus.
Under the circumstances, it furthers that uncertainty remains very high to receive funding from AML, thus rendering the entire FY2026 PSIP as just colorful projects waiting to fail in execution.
CDC asserts that most of the projected PSIPs are not projected in terms of designs, procurement, and other executional modalities, adding that submitting a budget that hastily allocates a one-time payment of over US$200million to "UNREADY PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS" is ignorance to achieving value for money for both current and future generations.
Alarming and Growing Wage Bill without Incremental Benefits to Civil Servants
"Even though the Draft FY2026 Wage bill is US$329 million, the true wage cost is estimated at US$352 million when over US$26 million in a new wage line called "OTHER COMPENSATION" is added. This aggregate US$352m wage amount represents about 37.8 percent of the Core Domestic Revenue, excluding contingent revenue and external resources."
This increase to the wage bill, the CDC noted, is not only excessive but is significantly troubling, since it does not reflect increases in the salary of the civil servants, especially those civil servants who are undeservingly earning the lowest of their standardized pay amount, especially nurses, midwives, teachers, security personnel for whom, over US$5 million allocation was made in the draft 2024 budget by the CDC administration before exiting power.
In the interest of public transparency and accountability, it called on the Executive to need to disaggregate the US$26million "OTHER COMPENSATION" to show the beneficiary by professional positions and by spending agency.
"Instead of hiding this under goods and services, it is important to reclassify it under the compensation category to reflect the actual wage bill of the government to be monitored by the government and the IMF under the current ECF program."
Pursue Debt Servicing with Transparency and Accountability
The CDC observed that though the budget proposes a US$230 million total debt service, inclusive of a new US$55 million interest line and increases in domestic liabilities, this amount represents an additional US$70million to the FY2025 debt service allocation.
Sourcing this additional 70million from the incremental US$125 million to core domestic revenue, as was done under the previous government, the CDC describes as laudable and shows Liberia's respect for maintaining its integrity in the domestic and international financial markets.
"We urge that all debts, interests, and charges contained in the US$230 million projection are consistent with the General Auditing Commission's domestic debt audit."
CDC Demands And Policy Actions
In addition to returning the FY2026 Draft Budget to the Executive for immediate conservative recast, the party wants the executive to exclude all speculative and contingent revenues from the baseline.
This, the CDC asserts that the inclusion of speculative revenues can make the budget unrealistic, leading to deficits, unpaid bills, or borrowing when those funds fail to materialize. Excluding speculative income ensures the government spends only what it has or can reliably collect.
The party believes this is in the promotion of realistic budgeting, reduces budget shortfalls and arrears, and builds credibility with donors and investors.
"This recommendation means that such funds should not be allocated immediately. Instead, they should be formally added to the budget later through a supplementary appropriation law after the fund is received and legally confirmed. There should be no rush to spend these monies if the country and the Government agree not to use such windfalls for recurrent expenditure."
"Today, Liberia has the Bomi range of mountains, which have been exhausted, and yet Bomi and the surrounding area continue to lie in abject poverty. Liberians today are asking what became of the resources of this place. Similar questions will face this generation from future generations if significant one-off resources received from concessions are not properly planned and executed. We argue that the best planning is not to use these resources in recurrent expenditure but to identify national projects of long-term economic consequence for the future of the country. In short, there should be no rush to spend the $200 million windfall if we agree it is not going toward recurrent expenditure. "
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Commission An Independent Debt Sustainability And Fiscal Risk Assessment Within 45 Days
The CDC is also recommending to the government to hire or empower an independent body (such as an international financial consultant or audit firm) to conduct a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis (DSA).
The assessment, it says, would examine Liberia's current debt levels, repayment capacity, borrowing risks, and exposure to contingent liabilities (like state-owned enterprises' debts or guarantees).
The party is confident that would ensure the government is not over-borrowing or accumulating unsustainable debt, builds investor and donor confidence, informs responsible budgeting, helps shape realistic borrowing limits and expenditure priorities, and helps prevent a potential debt crisis that could destabilize the economy or force painful austerity measures later.
Increase transparency on compensation and link payroll growth to verified revenues
Also key to this call is for the government to publish detailed information on salaries, allowances, and benefits across ministries and agencies, and to ensure that any increase in the public sector wage bill is tied to actual, verifiable growth in government revenues.
