The report documents a sustained pattern of deadly ambushes orchestrated mainly by Boko Hara, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and armed bandit groups.
A new security report has revealed that at least 454 Nigerian soldiers were killed in ambushes across the country between 2019 and 2025.
The report, titled, 'The Kill Zone' and published by geopolitical research firm, SBM Intelligence, documents a sustained pattern of deadly ambushes orchestrated mainly by Boko Haram. its breakaway group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and armed bandit groups operating across the North-west, North-east, and North-central regions.
According to the report, most ambushes were concentrated in a few key states, with Borno accounting for more than 60 per cent of all recorded incidents as ISWAP tightened its grip on parts of the state and the Lake Chad area. In the North-west, attacks linked to bandit groups increased sharply from 2020, making Zamfara the centre of that violence and Katsina another major hotspot.
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The security picture is further complicated by cross-border movements, including activities of ISSP-linked groups operating through porous frontiers.
Overall, according to the report, the worst-affected states cut across the North-east states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe and the North-west states, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, with additional incidents recorded in Benue, Kogi and Niger, and occasional cases reported in parts of the southern Nigeria such as Abia, Delta, Imo and Rivers.
SBM Intelligence noted that armed groups have expanded their tactics over the years. From 2019, insurgents increasingly relied on IEDs, coordinated multi-stage strikes, and fake checkpoints. By 2023, attackers were not only targeting patrols but also focusing on high-ranking officers and strategically important convoys. The report notes the deployment of commercial drones rigged for surveillance and explosive attacks, signalling enhanced operational capacity.
"In a significant tactical development, their operations have expanded to include isolating the Nigerian military's "supercamps" or forward operating bases by destroying key infrastructure such as bridges and roads to cut off reinforcements.
"Furthermore, they have incorporated explosive-rigged commercial drones into their arsenal and produce high-quality propaganda videos, indicating a growing level of organisation and external influence. The gravity of this threat was starkly illustrated in November 2021, when Brigadier-General Dzarma Zirkusu was killed in a major ambush near Askira Uba, Borno," the report stated,
High-profile ambushes and a shift to targeting officers
The report further said that the period under review saw a rise in attacks aimed directly at senior military personnel. Among the incidents listed is the March 2020 ambush in Goniri, Yobe, where 70 soldiers were killed, one of the deadliest single losses in recent years.
ISWAP followed with two high-profile killings. D.C. Bako, a colonel, in Damboa in September 2020, later promoted posthumously, and Brigadier General Dzarma Zirkusu in Askira/Uba Local Government Area of Borno State, in November 2021.
The trend continued with a 2023 bandit attack in Munya, Niger, that killed a Major, three soldiers, and four vigilantes. In June 2025, coordinated bandit raids in Niger and Kaduna left at least 17 soldiers dead. In November 2025, ISWAP ambushed and killed Brigadier General Musa Uba in Damboa, marking another major loss for the military.
Brigadier-General Uba's convoy was returning from operations around the Sambisa Forest when insurgents attacked, also killing two soldiers and two Civilian JTF members. ISWAP went on to release propaganda materials claiming they captured Mr Uba alive during the ambush, interrogated him, and later executed him.
Although the Nigerian Army initially denied reports of his abduction, President Bola Tinubu later publicly confirmed Mr Uba's death while acknowledging the increasing complexity of insurgent attacks in the region.
"By 2023 through to 2025, a further refinement was observed, with a clear trend towards highly targeted ambushes aimed at high-ranking officers and critical security convoys. This latter phase has been characterised by a notable enhancement in tactical prowess, including the deployment of commercial drones for surveillance and kinetic attacks, and the execution of coordinated assaults designed to isolate military bases by severing their access routes.," the report stated.
SBM Intelligence said the Nigerian military responded to the rising threat by adopting the "super camp" strategy, consolidating troops in larger bases. But the report says this approach created a problem. While the camps were intended to offer protection, they ceded control of vast rural areas to insurgents and, in some cases, became high-value targets themselves.
The military also increased air-ground coordination and relied more heavily on CJTF and vigilante groups for intelligence and patrols. SBM notes that while these measures have disrupted some attacks, they have also exposed civilian auxiliaries to deadly ambushes and raised the overall casualty count.
Challenges
The report identified several deep-rooted challenges that continue to undermine counterinsurgency operations. According to the organisation, these include a shortage of mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPs), gaps in reconnaissance, harsh deployment conditions, and weaknesses in welfare and rotation schedules.
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Operational effectiveness has also been affected by corruption and the mismanagement of funds "earmarked for arms and equipment," according to the report.
Regional security architecture also crumbling
According to SBM Intelligence, the deterioration of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), following Niger's withdrawal and reduced participation from Chad has created operational vacuums along Nigeria's borders.
These gaps have been exploited by both jihadist and criminal groups for mobility, sanctuary and resupply, the report said.
The report concluded that Nigeria is now contending with a conflict that has shifted from territorial warfare to a protracted war of attrition. It calls for improved intelligence and surveillance, better protection for patrol units and bases, stronger integration of local defence groups and urgent reforms to restore troop morale and institutional integrity.
SBM Intelligence said its forecasts are drawn from a combination of historical data, stakeholder input and publicly available sources, including regulators, research partners, industry groups, media reports and government agencies.
