The Fiscal Year 2026 national budget, totalling US$1.211 billion and the largest in the nation's history, has received national attention for its bold alignment with President Joseph Boakai's ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development.
But even as the Government celebrates record domestic financing, a growing number of fiscal experts warn that the budget's success will depend heavily on Liberia's ability to combat financial leakages and illicit financial flows (IFFs).
Among the most prominent voices in this national conversation is Dr. Bonokai Gould, a leading Liberian economist and recognized international expert on cross-border payments and financial transparency.
Dr. Gould argues that Liberia cannot fully realize the ambitions of the 2026 budget until it confronts the systemic revenue losses undermining fiscal stability.
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Record Domestic Revenue, but Structural Risks Remain
The 2026 budget projects a remarkable 37.5% increase in domestic revenue, with 94 percent of the total envelope expected to be raised locally.
However, analysts including Dr. Gould, a certified chartered economist, warn that a significant portion of this increase comes from a one-time US$200 million signature bonus from ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML), raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
"Liberia's revenue outlook appears strong, but the foundation remains fragile," Dr. Gould cautioned. "One-time inflows cannot substitute for structural reforms in customs, extractives, and financial governance." Infrastructure Takes the Lead, but Agriculture Lags The budget allocates US$281.5 million to the Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP), prioritizing roads, energy, and infrastructure--sectors expected to boost productivity if projects are executed efficiently.
However, the agriculture sector--central to rural livelihoods--receives just US$13.66 million, or 1.1% of the budget.
Dr. Gould notes that such low investment contradicts Liberia's stated goals for inclusive and equitable development.
"No country has reduced poverty with agriculture at one percent of the budget," he stressed. "We must align spending with the sectors that matter most to ordinary Liberians." Human Development Gains but Social Protection Remains Underfunded
Allocations for education (US$123.98 million) and health (US$101.7 million) show improvements, supporting essential medicines, school feeding, and teacher recruitment.
Yet social protection--critical for vulnerable households--receives only US$16.12 million.
According to Dr. Gould, this gap exposes a misalignment between social needs and fiscal choices: "We cannot speak of inclusive growth when support for the vulnerable remains this limited," he remarked.
The Biggest Threat: Illicit Financial Flows and Revenue Leakages
The strongest warning from experts concerns Liberia's persistent loss of revenue through illicit financial flows.
Estimates suggest the country loses US$200-300 million every year through:
· trade misinvoicing
· smuggling of gold, timber, and minerals
· under-declared exports
· transfer pricing abuses
· procurement fraud
· unrecorded cross-border transactions
Dr. Gould has been one of the foremost advocates for a National Illicit Financial Flows Strategy and a comprehensive IFF Law, which experts believe could recover US$90-125 million annually.
"Liberia cannot build schools, roads, and hospitals if hundreds of millions continue to leak from the system," Dr. Gould emphasized. "Passing an IFF Law is not optional--it is the only pathway to financial sovereignty."
His extensive research shows that plugging these leakages will deliver more revenue than any new tax measure currently under consideration.
A Liberian Expert with Global Recognition
Dr. Gould's credibility in this debate extends beyond Liberia's borders.
He recently won a G20 Presidency Global Call for Papers Award for his work titled: "Invincible Sender: Gender Challenges in Cross-Border Payments in Sub-Saharan Africa."
He presented the groundbreaking paper at the G20 Cross-Border Payments Conference in Pretoria, earning Liberia rare global recognition in the field of financial governance and payment systems.
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Dr. Gould is also the author of the forthcoming book: "Sealing the Leaks: Confronting Illicit Financial Flows and Unlocking Africa's Financial Sovereignty."
The book--currently under publication review--explores the structural and political economy drivers of IFFs and provides a roadmap for African governments seeking to reclaim lost revenue.
Analysts say the book is poised to become one of the most important African contributions to global debates on financial transparency and development financing.
A Historic Opportunity -- If Liberia Seals the Leaks
Experts conclude that Liberia's 2026 budget holds the promise of transformational change through increased public investment and improved human development spending.
But without decisive action to curb financial leakages, the gains may prove temporary. As Dr. Gould summarizes: "This budget gives Liberia a historic opening. But the country will only move forward when we stop the money that is silently flowing backward."
