West Africa’s coup belt has flared again, this time in Guinea-Bissau — though what unfolded feels less like a classic overthrow and more like a political stunt wrapped in military theatre.
After a fiercely contested election, sudden gunfire between the national guard and the presidential guard sent rumours of a coup rippling across Bissau. But the strangest part wasn’t the fighting — it was the victim.
President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, supposedly toppled, was free, visible, and fully in command. For a “deposed” leader, he looked remarkably comfortable.
This has fuelled a growing belief that the crisis may have been an inside job — a carefully managed confrontation used to settle scores, sideline opponents, or reassert control over institutions slipping from the president’s grip.
Opposition Arrested — Coup Plotters Missing
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Early reports blamed rogue elements of the National Guard for attempting to seize power. Yet those who ended up in handcuffs were not the alleged plotters but the opposition, raising the question:
If this was a genuine coup, why arrest political rivals instead of the soldiers who fired shots?
The sweep against the opposition suggests this crisis may have been less about defending democracy and more about reshuffling political power under the cover of chaos.
Regional Stability Takes Another Hit
The region is already staggering under military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea, plus near-misses in Sierra Leone. Guinea-Bissau’s drama — coup or not — deepens the perception that democratic norms in West Africa are fragile and easily manipulated.
ECOWAS now faces yet another destabilising episode in a belt already riddled with reversals.
The Strategist’s Fall From Grace
Attention has also turned to the president’s long-time strategist — a shadowy operator often credited with engineering Embaló’s political manoeuvres.
His influence appears to be collapsing.
After a brief and discreet stay in Senegal, he moved on to Congo-Brazzaville. But harbouring him could prove diplomatically costly. Few governments want to be associated with political actors linked to instability at a time when the region is under intense scrutiny.
Guinea-Bissau’s Endless Loop
This latest crisis shows a country trapped in an endless cycle:
• Institutions with no authority
• A fragmented military
• Politics driven by suspicion and survival
• Leaders willing to manufacture drama to retain control
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In Guinea-Bissau, even a coup can be stage-managed. And while the world tries to decide what exactly happened, one thing is clear:
in the coup belt, instability is no longer an event — it’s a system.
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Daniel Makokera is a renowed media personality who has worked as journalist, television anchor, producer and conference presenter for over 20 years. Throughout his career as presenter and anchor, he has travelled widely across the continent and held exclusive interviews with some of Africa's most illustrious leaders. These include former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former South African presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and presidents Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He currently is the CEO of Pamuzinda Productions based in South Africa.
