What's the context? Nigerian militants could use Trump's threats to intervene over kidnappings to secure recruits and resources, security expert says.
LAGOS - Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has declared a nationwide security emergency after a surge in kidnappings and armed attacks on schools and places of worship.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened military action over what he says is the persecution of Christians.
But the Nigerian government and security experts say Christians are not being specifically targeted in the attacks in the centre and north of the country.
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In the latest mass kidnapping, more than 300 pupils and 12 staff were seized from St Mary's Catholic School in Papiri, a village in the central Niger state on Nov. 21. This week,
Nigeria's government rescued around 100 of the children.
British charity Save the Children says at least 10 school kidnappings have taken place across Nigeria in less than two years, affecting about 670 children.
A U.S. Congressional delegation visited Nigeria this week and discussed steps to enhance security, including the creation of a joint Nigeria-U.S. task force.
Nigeria faces persistent violence from Islamist insurgents, armed bandits and communal clashes that have killed thousands and displaced millions.
Ryan Cummings, director of the security consultancy Signal Risk, said extremist groups seeking relevance could exploit Trump's intervention to drive recruitment and secure more resources. He spoke to Context.
What is driving recent mass abductions?
There are push and pull factors driving the mass kidnappings of civilians, particularly school children and worshippers. These demographics have long been targeted by Islamist and ethno-religious actors who use these victims to extort significant ransom payments and other non-financial concessions.
However, it would be remiss not to suggest that the attention of President Donald Trump, who has threatened military intervention, and the wider U.S. administration regarding the perceived persecution of Christians has played a role in incentivising the victimisation of these demographics.
For anti-state armed actors, targeting Christian civilians during a time when international attention is on the plight of the community, undermines the Nigerian government's claims that it can guarantee national security.
Secondly, it further intensifies inter-religious tensions, which could be a catalyst for social unrest in Nigeria, that these extremist groups can manipulate to their advantage.
These groups want American boots on the ground, which would help them attract a significant flow of resources and workforce to extremist groups from the international jihadist ecosystem, which views the U.S as an opponent to the spread of Islamist fundamentalism.
How could the Trump administration's influence reshape the strategies of criminal networks and extremist groups in Nigeria and the Sahel region?
For one, it can escalate violence by these groups who want to attract resources and recruitment by positioning themselves as the vanguard of Islam against the U.S, which draws much contention and animosity for its armed engagement in the Muslim world.
It can also be argued that Trump's engagement in Africa could perhaps facilitate greater coordination among regional extremist groups, which otherwise compete among each other for access to recruits and other resources.
Also, if there's anything jihadists love, it's media attention. They love to read newspapers and articles citing their name or their organisation.
It brings a degree of notoriety to these groups and they have used this tactic to get global attention since the 2014 kidnapping of the Chibok Girls, when many celebrities and political figures joined the campaign to secure the students' release.
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What can the government do to make schools safer?
The Nigerian government must prioritise strengthening the economy and governance capacity in regions affected by militancy, as security measures alone address symptoms rather than root causes of insecurity, which stem from governance deficiencies.
The government needs to offer communities a better social welfare deal than non-state armed actors do to deter Nigerians from joining these groups.
Many of them join these armed groups because militant groups end up providing a better deal to local communities than the government can. And that's a serious concern at the end of the day. And I don't think much is being done to rectify that.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
(Reporting by Bukola Adebayo; Editing by Jon Hemming.)
