It is this convergence of PDP decline and APC vulnerability that has created fertile ground for ADC's rise.
As 2027 approaches, Kaduna voters appear less interested in slogans and are more attentive to competence, security, and economic relief. If ADC can translate its growing coalition into a coherent message and a credible candidate, it may well redefine opposition politics in the state -- and perhaps beyond it. The rising tide is real. Whether it carries ADC to shore or breaks prematurely will depend on choices made long before ballots are cast.
Politics in Kaduna has always had a way of announcing change before it fully arrives. Sometimes it does so through protest votes, sometimes through quiet defections, and at other times through the slow but unmistakable exhaustion of an old order. As the countdown to 2027 begins -- still distant enough for denials, yet close enough for serious calculations -- the signs are growing clearer that Kaduna's opposition politics is undergoing a profound reconfiguration. At the centre of this shift stands the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party that has moved from the margins of national politics to occupy a fast-expanding space once firmly held by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Keep up with the latest headlines on WhatsApp | LinkedIn
For decades, the PDP was the default refuge for opposition forces in Kaduna and much of Northern Nigeria. Even when it lost elections, it retained structures, personalities, and a sense of inevitability. That era is fading. Internal schisms, serial defections, unresolved leadership battles, and repeated electoral disappointments have hollowed out the PDP's authority. What remains is a shell that still speaks loudly but no longer commands disciplined followership. Into this vacuum has stepped the ADC, cautiously at first, but now with growing confidence and unmistakable ambition.
In Kaduna State, this transition is unfolding against the backdrop of an All Progressives Congress (APC) administration struggling to consolidate public trust. Governor Uba Sani came into office promising continuity with reform, yet many citizens argue that the state has instead slipped into policy inertia. Persistent insecurity across rural communities, economic pressures worsened by inflation and unemployment, and a perceived slowdown in infrastructure delivery have combined to erode goodwill. While the APC still controls the levers of power, its once-cohesive political machine shows signs of internal fatigue. High-profile figures who once defended the party now speak of exclusion, centralisation, and an absence of ideological direction.
It is this convergence of PDP decline and APC vulnerability that has created fertile ground for ADC's rise.
What distinguishes the ADC from previous "third force" experiments is not merely timing but composition. The party has become a meeting point for political actors disillusioned with old loyalties yet unwilling to retreat from relevance. Former APC power brokers, estranged PDP stalwarts, technocrats, youth organisers, and policy-minded professionals are finding common cause within a platform that promises internal democracy, ideological clarity, and a break from the suffocating godfatherism that has long shaped Kaduna politics. The symbolism is powerful: ADC is not presenting itself as a protest party, but as a government-in-waiting.
Nationally, the party's momentum has been boosted by the gravitation of influential figures such as former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai and seasoned political organisers Salihu, Bashir Saidu and John Ayuba, among others, whose critiques of the APC have resonated across party lines. In Kaduna, where El-Rufai's legacy still polarises opinion but commands attention, ADC's association with reformist language has given it the visibility and credibility that smaller parties typically lack.
As a result, the ADC has become the most attractive opposition platform ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial contest. That attraction is measurable. No fewer than seven serious aspirants are now circling the party's ticket, each calculating that ADC offers a clearer path to power than the fractured PDP or the internally strained APC. Their ambitions, backgrounds, and contradictions offer a revealing window into both the promise and the perils of ADC's rapid ascent.
Among the most intellectually formidable of these aspirants is Professor Muhammad Sani Bello, widely known as Mainan Zazzau. Bello's résumé reads like a catalogue of elite competence: a PhD in Accounting and Finance from Ahmadu Bello University, fellowships in leading professional bodies, executive training at Harvard, Stanford, and London Business School, and senior experience across banking, academia, and public administration. He has served as commissioner in strategic ministries, dean of a university faculty, and financial controller at ECOWAS, building a profile defined by technical depth and policy fluency. His academic gravitas and exposure to global best practices place him among the most accomplished technocrats ever to seek Kaduna's governorship, and few contemporaries can rival the breadth of his professional preparation for high office.
Yet politics, especially in Kaduna, is rarely settled by résumés alone. Bello's political journey has been marked by frequent realignments that have complicated perceptions of his reliability. He began his partisan career in the ANPP, moved to the PDP, and later joined the APC, each transition shaped by internal disagreements rather than electoral defeat. His rift with the camp of Senator Ahmed Makarfi during his time in the PDP precipitated his exit from the party, just as his later fallout with Governor Uba Sani informed his decision to leave the APC in search of an alternative platform. While these moves are defended by his supporters as principled refusals to compromise, critics frame them as evidence of political restlessness.
This pattern of serial rifts with party leaders has created a lingering trust question mark around Bello, particularly among influential blocs aligned with Nasir El-Rufai, whose camp remains sensitive to signs of internal dissent. To them, Bello's elite, technocratic persona -- already distant from grassroots politics -- is further complicated by a reputation for difficult alliances. In a party like the ADC, still in the delicate process of forging cohesion and discipline, Bello would need to demonstrate not only competence but also political steadiness. Convincing party stakeholders that he represents genuine renewal, rather than recycled ambition, will require him to overcome doubts born less of his intellect than of his turbulent political history.
Senator Lawal Adamu Usman, popularly called Mr LAA, brings a different kind of energy. As the sitting senator for Kaduna Central, Usman commands visibility, resources, and a loyal support base nurtured through philanthropy. His LA Cares Foundation has funded education, supported widows and orphans, and intervened in moments of social distress. He has positioned himself rhetorically as a defender of the masses, particularly during debates over tuition hikes and cost-of-living pressures.
However, Usman's senatorial record has drawn mixed reviews. Critics accuse him of being more vocal than effective, pointing to a thin legislative footprint and a perceived closeness to Senate leadership that undermines his image as an independent voice. More significantly, he has never held executive office, leaving questions about his preparedness to manage a complex state like Kaduna. For ADC, Usman represents mass appeal and name recognition, but also the risk of importing PDP-style politics into a party seeking a fresh identity.
Honourable Suleiman Ibrahim Dabo represents a generational bridge in Kaduna politics, combining solid academic grounding with early immersion in public administration. A product of Ahmadu Bello University, where he rose through the ranks of the Registry from Administrative Assistant to Deputy Registrar, Dabo's formative years were shaped not in political rallies but in the disciplined corridors of Nigeria's premier university. That experience exposed him to policy processes, institutional governance, and the inner workings of large bureaucracies, long before he sought elective office. When he eventually resigned to enter partisan politics in 2017, he did so with an uncommon familiarity with how government actually functions -- a background that quietly differentiates him from many contemporaries whose political lives began and ended with campaigns.
Politically, Dabo's trajectory has been restless but instructive. His election to the Kaduna State House of Assembly between 2019 and 2023 gave him legislative experience at a time of intense policy experimentation in the state. Beyond that, his repeated willingness to test his popularity -- seeking the Zaria Local Government chairmanship on two occasions -- on the platform of APC in 2017 and PDP in 2024 -- and contesting a House of Representatives seat in 2023 -- signals a politician unafraid of political risk or defeat. Rather than diminishing him, these contests have expanded his name recognition, especially across Zaria and its environs, and have helped him cultivate a reputation as one of the more visible youth-facing politicians in the zone. His traditional title, Wakilin Birnin Zazzau, further anchors him within the social and cultural structures of the emirate, granting him access to royal networks while maintaining relevance among ordinary constituents.
Among young people and grassroots organisers, Dabo enjoys a level of organic popularity that is difficult to manufacture. He is frequently described as approachable, physically present at community events, and fluent in the everyday language of local politics, rather than the distant idiom of elite power. This accessibility has earned him followership among students, traders, and local party foot soldiers, who see in him a reflection of their own aspirations. Yet, this same rise has attracted scrutiny. His associations with established political figures - particularly Bashir Saidu to whom he pledges uncompromising, unalloyed loyalty -- have fuelled speculations of external influence, raising the question of whether he is an independent actor or a carefully positioned surrogate. For the ADC, the calculation is delicate: Dabo embodies youthful energy, cultural legitimacy, and mass appeal, but the party must weigh whether his momentum is self-sustaining enough to reassure a cautious electorate seeking both renewal and steady hands at the helm.
In the corporate corner stands Shuaibu Idris, a polished executive whose career at the Dangote Group and in banking equips him with serious economic credentials. Idris speaks the language of investment, efficiency, and fiscal discipline -- terms that resonate strongly at a time when Kaduna's economy is under strain. His international exposure and boardroom experience could, in theory, translate into pragmatic governance.
Yet, Idris embodies a familiar Nigerian dilemma: the technocrat-politician who arrives at election season without having cultivated enduring political relationships. Seen by many as elite and transactional, he is yet to demonstrate sustained loyalty to any political platform. For ADC, embracing Idris would signal seriousness about economic reform, but also risk alienating grassroots members wary of parachute politicians.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Honourable Jafaru Ibrahim Sani represents institutional continuity. A career civil servant turned commissioner, Sani has managed portfolios ranging from local government to education and environment. His supporters describe him as diligent, incorruptible, and deeply knowledgeable about Kaduna's bureaucratic machinery. His association with the El-Rufai administration lends him credibility among reform-minded voters.
However, Sani's political style is understated to a fault. Critics say he lacks urgency, charisma, and the financial muscle required for a modern gubernatorial campaign. His long proximity to power, without a corresponding political base, raises questions about his ability to mobilise beyond elite circles.
Ahmad Tijjani Umar, associated with the NNPP but exploring ADC, appeals primarily to youth through health interventions and empowerment programmes. His philanthropy-driven politics has earned him goodwill among certain communities, particularly within Tijjaniyya networks. Yet, his frequent shifts in ambition and inconsistent messaging have undermined perceptions of reliability. In a party seeking coherence, Umar's entry would require significant political discipline.
Dr John Ayuba may be the most quietly strategic of the aspirants. A first-class graduate, seasoned banker, former commissioner, and PDP's 2023 deputy governorship candidate, Ayuba combines intellectual rigour with humility. His early move to ADC has earned him respect as a bridge-builder, particularly in Southern Kaduna, where his faith, philanthropy, and community engagement resonate.
Still, zoning politics looms large. Kaduna's delicate balance of regional expectations could complicate Ayuba's ambition, especially given perceptions of his closeness to Bashir El-Rufai-era networks. For ADC, his candidacy embodies both inclusiveness and potential controversy.
Taken together, these aspirants reveal why ADC matters. The party has become a magnet not because it promises miracles, but because it offers possibility. It is currently the only platform in Kaduna where ambition does not immediately collide with entrenched factions or exhausted narratives. That advantage, however, is fragile. Managing primaries, enforcing internal democracy, and resisting the replication of old habits will determine whether ADC consolidates its gains or dissipates them.
As 2027 approaches, Kaduna voters appear less interested in slogans and are more attentive to competence, security, and economic relief. If ADC can translate its growing coalition into a coherent message and a credible candidate, it may well redefine opposition politics in the state -- and perhaps beyond it. The rising tide is real. Whether it carries ADC to shore or breaks prematurely will depend on choices made long before ballots are cast.
Joel Bagudu writes from Baltimore County, Maryland, United States.
