If media reports at the weekend were anything to go by, on this Monday morning, Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, better known by his alias Abba Gida Gida, would be preparing to swear a new oath, this time of fidelity to a new political party, APC.
The indications of a major political switch have been coming in recent weeks, most notably by the governor's refusal to deny that he was moving, by APC's Kano State chapter publicly "inviting him" to defect, by NNPP Kano State chairman Hashimu Dungurawa, a Kwankwaso loyalist, publicly warning the governor against "betrayal," by NNPP chapter in Dungurawa's home ward saying it expelled him, which Local Government and state chapters loyal to the governor quickly ratified; by the NNPP national exco [loyal to Kwankwaso] dissolving state, LG and ward excos of the party in Kano State; by elected Local Government chairmen and state legislators declaring that they will follow Gida Gida wherever he goes; and by NNPP national leader Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso himself warning in an interview about impending betrayal.
In short, Kano State [its old Jigawa part since gone] is politically back to 1981 and the extremely bitter split within the Peoples Redemption Party [PRP] between the party's national leader, Malam Aminu Kano and the state's PRP governor, Mohammed Abubakar Rimi. PRP split down the middle into the "Santsi" and "Tabo" factions. Santsi means slippery terrain; it was Malam Aminu Kano, at the first sign of a split, who said some party members were being swept away by Santsi. Rimi, ever so combative, replied that other party members were stuck in Tabo, i.e. mud. That split continued into the Third and even the early years of the Fourth Republic.
There are some similarities as well as some differences between 1981 and 2025-26 in Kano politics, beginning with similarities and differences between Malam Aminu Kano and Dr. Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso. When the PRP crisis began in 1981, Malam Aminu had been in politics for over 30 years. Kwankwaso, too, has been in politics since at least 1991, about 34 years. Malam Aminu's politics was intensely ideological; he was fervently left-wing, stridently fought to liberate Talakawa [i.e. the downtrodden masses], fought British colonial rulers, fought traditional rulers, fought Native Authorities, fought the ruling Northern People's Congress [NPC] and its larger-than-life leader Sir Ahmadu Bello; and he formed an alliance with Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe's NCNC.
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Kwankwaso is not left-wing by any means. His Kwankwasiyya movement, whose symbol is a red cap much like the one made famous by Malam Aminu Kano, lacks sharp ideological focus, makes no claims to liberating Talakawa, and has no visible policy platform. Kwankwasiyya has no ideological quarrel with traditional rulers; it only chooses which factions of them to align with. It has no antipathy towards big businessmen or even imperialists, and it does not specially appeal to any particular class of Kano citizens.
In his 34 years in politics until his death in 1983, Malam Aminu remained steadfastly in NEPU and its Second Republic offshoot, PRP. During the days of the Constituent Assembly in 1977-78, he briefly flirted with right-wing politicians in a political association but when General Obasanjo lifted the ban on politics in September 1978, they parted ways; most of them went to NPN while Malam went to PRP. Kwankwaso, on the other hand was in the Third Republic SDP, on whose platform he went to the House of Representatives and became Deputy Speaker. From 1998 to 2013 he was in PDP, under whose platform he became governor twice and Minister of Defense for four years. He then went to APC, later got displaced from it, returned to PDP, then formed [or more properly, hijacked] NNPP.
Malam Aminu and Kwankwaso have certain character similarities, most visibly an autocratic temperament. PRP leaders said when they arrived at Ahmadu Bello Stadium, Kaduna in October 1978 to unveil PRP, the agreed name was People's Revolutionary Party but when Malam climbed the dais, he single handedly changed Revolutionary to Redemption [wisely perhaps, in order not to frighten FEDECO to deny the party registration]. Kwankwaso too is visibly autocratic; party members say he single handedly chose all of Abba's commissioners and advisers as well as Kano NNPP's candidates in Local Government elections. Malam Aminu was extremely simple in dress and lifestyle; always wore a simple white dress and red cap and his house [present Mambayya House] was simple and open to all. Kwankwaso is however flamboyant in dress, gait and mannerisms.
Rimi was a PRP senatorial candidate in 1979 when FEDECO [as INEC was called then] disqualified the party's Kano State gubernatorial candidate, Engineer Salihi Iliyasu. Party leaders asked for an emergency congress to choose a replacement but Malam vetoed them and anointed Rimi to replace Iliyasu. Rimi did not even know; he was in Enugu on a party mission on that day. In much the same manner Kwankwaso anointed Abba Yusuf, first as PDP's candidate in 2019, when he controversially lost, and again as NNPP's candidate in 2023.
Reasons for the 1981 fall out between Rimi and Malam are qualitatively different from this year's fall-out. PRP's two Second Republic governors, Rimi and Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa of Kaduna, attended meetings of the Progressive Governors Forum alongside UPN's five and GNPP's two governors. This anti-NPN forum expanded when three NPP governors joined after the collapse of the NPN-NPP Accord in 1982. And with 12 of the country's 19 governors [there were 19 states then], they soon conceived the idea of forming a mega opposition Progressive Peoples Party, PPP. Malam Aminu was opposed to this; he saw Chief Awolowo as stealing his party's governors and he forbade Rimi and Balarabe Musa from attending PPP meetings. But they went anyway; Malam expelled them from PRP, but Abba is deserting NNPP on his own.
This time around, the reason for the Kwankwaso-Abba split is not so clear cut. It is understandable if Abba is fed up with Kwankwaso's overbearing posture. Since 2024, some of his aides had openly campaigned for the governor to "stand on your feet," i.e. repudiate the Godfather. Yet, an open split with Kwankwaso is a dangerous undertaking for Abba. He lacks the latter's political charisma, organizational skill, character strength, combative spirit and even the sharp political tongue so necessary in Kano's rambunctious politics. Unlike Kwankwaso, Abba is mild mannered, soft spoken and unimposing in appearance, hardly the stereotypical Kano person as seen by other Northerners. Abba also lacks Rimi's dazzling persona, extremely combative spirit, very sharp tongue, fearlessness and national political reckoning.
Breathing room apart, it is also speculated that Abba's move is essentially designed to improve his chances of getting reelected in 2027. APC is the go-to party for all ambitious 2027 hopefuls; nearly 30 of this country's 36 state governors are already in it. Yet, Abba may not have studied his political history very carefully. Since 1979 at least, Lagos and Kano have been the two states where the will of voters often prevails and where Federal might is least impactful in elections. In presidential and governorship elections, Kano's voters voted against Federal might in 1983, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2023. Despite NPN's overwhelming might in 1983, it could not snatch Kano away from PRP's candidate Sabo Bakin Zuwo, even though Malam Aminu died months earlier. In 2003 too, when PDP ruled both Abuja and Kano, Governor Kwankwaso was still defeated by the then little known ANPP candidate Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. In 2023, APC lost to NNPP in Kano despite the former's Federal and state incumbency and despite the latter's late arrival on the political scene. So, a move to APC does not guarantee Abba a victory in 2027.
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Besides, Governor Abba may be moving into another quagmire because Kano's APC chapter is full of powerful aspirants, notably its former governorship candidate Nasiru Gawuna and the Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin. It also has a [relatively mild mannered] godfather, former governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Ganduje has been weakened by the loss of his position as National Chairman, but he still seems to be in control of Kano's APC chapter. It is not at all clear whether APC leaders will surrender the plum job to the newcomer, who has been their bitter foe for many years, has demolished buildings belonging to APC leaders and engineered corruption charges against them. From what I can see, Ganduje and his men are only happy to wreck the Kwankwasiyya front by peeling away their arch foe Kwankwaso's biggest political asset, namely the governor.
One newspaper report said it was the Tinubu Presidency that goaded Abba to move, for its own 2027 calculations, having tried but failed to woe Kwankwaso over to its side. They probably think that if they add Abba and his team to the existing APC followers in the state, then the vote-rich Kano is in the bag. I doubt if things quite work out that way. Kano's voters are quite capable of voting one way in presidential and another way in governorship elections, as they did in 2019. As one newspaper report suggested, the crafty Kwankwaso is likely to team up with the opposition ADC, and there is no knowing where Kano voters will go in 2027.
