Abuja — Nigeria remained structurally dependent on imported petrol between November 2024 and November 2025, despite a measurable contribution from the Dangote Refinery, according to a THISDAY analysis of official data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Over the 13-month period, the country imported an estimated 12.96 billion litres of petrol, while local refineries supplied about 7.39 billion litres, bringing total petrol availability to roughly 20.35 billion litres.
The review showed that imported petrol accounted for about 63.7 per cent of total supply during the period, while local production covered 36.3 per cent, underscoring the scale of Nigeria's continued exposure to external supply chains and foreign exchange pressures.
The analysis was based on monthly average daily supply figures converted into total monthly volumes, ensuring an aggregation of imports and domestic production across the entire period from November 2024 to November 2025.
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In November 2024, Nigeria consumed an estimated 1.68 billion litres of petrol, of which imports accounted for about 1.12 billion litres, or 66.8 per cent, while domestic refineries supplied roughly 560 million litres, representing 33.2 per cent.
December 2024 recorded total supply of approximately 1.62 billion litres, but import dependence deepened significantly as imported volumes rose to 1.31 billion litres, accounting for 81.1 per cent, while local output fell to just 307 million litres.
Opinions have been divided over continued petrol import into Nigeria. Proponents contend that the country cannot yet rely solely on domestic refining, even with the Dangote Refinery in operation, if only to wade off monopolistic tendencies.
Besides, they argue that demand fluctuations, maintenance shutdowns, logistics constraints and distribution bottlenecks can quickly create shortages. Imports are therefore seen as a buffer that prevents supply shocks, price spikes and fuel scarcity, while also allowing competition that can check monopoly pricing and inefficiencies in the local supply chain.
On the other hand, the case against petrol import is anchored on economic efficiency and energy sovereignty. Critics argue that importing petrol while the Dangote Refinery has significant capacity undermines local investment, drains scarce foreign exchange and perpetuates exposure to global price volatility.
They maintain that prioritising locally refined products would deepen value addition, create jobs, stabilise supply over time and reduce Nigeria's long-standing dependence on imported fuel, provided regulatory certainty and fair pricing are ensured.
The THISDAY analysis indicated that January 2025 marked a sharp contraction in overall supply to about 1.35 billion litres. However, local refineries contributed an estimated 592 million litres, raising their share to 43.6 per cent, while imports declined to 766 million litres, or 56.4 per cent.
This improvement in domestic participation continued into February 2025, when total supply rebounded to about 1.47 billion litres. Local production reached roughly 694 million litres, its highest monthly contribution in the period, accounting for 47.4 per cent, while imports supplied 772 million litres.
March and April 2025 saw relatively stable supply levels. In March, total PMS availability stood at about 1.60 billion litres, with imports contributing 889 million litres (55.6 per cent) and domestic refineries supplying 710 million litres (44.4 per cent). April followed a similar pattern, with a total supply of roughly 1.51 billion litres, of which imports accounted for 861 million litres (57.2 per cent) and local production 645 million litres.
However, the gains recorded in the first quarter of 2025 proved difficult to sustain. In May 2025, total supply rose to about 1.77 billion litres, driven largely by a surge in imports, which reached 1.20 billion litres and accounted for 67.6 per cent of supply. Domestic production fell back to 574 million litres, or 32.4 per cent, highlighting the volatility of local refinery output.
June and July 2025 reinforced this trend. In June, Nigeria consumed an estimated 1.52 billion litres of petrol, with imports supplying 978 million litres (64.3 per cent) and domestic refineries 543 million litres. July recorded total supply of about 1.63 billion litres, but import volumes expanded to 1.12 billion litres, pushing the import share up to 68.6 per cent, while local output slipped to 512 million litres.
But a modest recovery in domestic contribution was recorded in August and September 2025. August supply stood at approximately 1.43 billion litres, with local refineries providing 614 million litres (42.9 per cent) and imports 817 million litres.
In September, overall supply fell to its lowest point in the 13-month period, at about 1.19 billion litres, but domestic production still accounted for 44.3 per cent, supplying 529 million litres, compared with 664 million litres imported.
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October 2025 saw a recovery in volumes, with a total supply of about 1.43 billion litres. Imports contributed 896 million litres (62.8 per cent), while domestic refineries supplied 530 million litres. The period closed with a dramatic spike in November 2025, when total supply surged to roughly 2.15 billion litres, the highest monthly volume in the period.
The analysis showed that imports dominated the increase, rising to about 1.56 billion litres and accounting for 72.8 per cent, while domestic production stood at 586 million litres.
Overall, while domestic refining capacity demonstrated the ability to meet as much as 47 per cent of national petrol demand at its peak, the data showed that Nigeria has not yet achieved a stable transition away from imports.
The heavy reliance on imported petrol over the 13-month period continues to expose the economy to foreign exchange volatility, logistics risks and global price shocks, reinforcing the urgency of sustaining and scaling domestic refining output if energy security is to be achieved.
