Nigeria's average oil output, including condensate, increased year-on-year to 1.652 million barrels per day in the first 11 months of 2025, from 1.544 million bpd in the corresponding period of 2024, indicating a 7 percent increase.

Despite this, Nigeria did not meet its 2025 budget target of 2.06 million bpd during the period, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The nation also failed to meet the oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel and exchange rate assumption of ¦ 1,400 to the dollar.

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On a month-on-month basis, Nigeria produced 1.599 million bpd in November 2025, showing a marginal rise from 1.597 million bpd in October 2025.

Checks by Vanguard indicated that this compelled the government to adopt a more conservative budget benchmark in 2026.

The Federal government had adopted an ambitious budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, but with the inability to achieve this, it settled on a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of ¦ 1,400 to the dollar.

In his 2026 budget address, President Bola Tinubu said: "The 2026 Budget is themed: 'Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity'. It reflects our determination to lock in macroeconomic stability, deepen competitiveness, and ensure that growth translates into decent jobs, rising incomes, and a better quality of life for every Nigerian.

"Oil production has improved, supported by enhanced security, technology deployment, and sector reforms. Non-oil revenues have expanded significantly through better tax administration.

"Investor confidence is returning reflected in capital inflows, renewed project financing, and stronger private-sector participation. Our external reserves rose to a 7-year high of about $47 billion as of last month, providing over 10 months of import cover and a more substantial buffer against shocks."