No fewer than 141 million Nigerians are expected to live in poverty this year, PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC, revealed in its Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report.
However, economists and experts, who spoke with Vanguard, affirmed that there is serious poverty in the country compounded by ongoing reforms, which is necessary and inevitable given the situation of the economy.
They averred that the poverty level figure between that of PwC and National Bureau of Statistics, NBS is not contradicting as it depends on methodology that are used.
According to the PwC, the international accounting firm's latest report titled: "Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth," projected deteriorating poverty levels of about 62 per cent of Nigerian population in the year preceding the election year 2027.
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"Despite macroeconomic gains, poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent, affecting 141 million Nigerians by 2026," PwC said.
The report further showed that Nigeria's economy was expected to grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026, inflation to moderate at 12.94 per cent, and the naira to remain stable in the N1,440-1,500-dollar range.
"Approximately 33.1 million Nigerians may face food insecurity due to economic hardship and violence in northern food-producing regions. Food accounts for up to 70 per cent of consumption among poorer households," it added.
According to the report, recent economic reforms have yet to translate into improved household welfare, as weak real income growth and rising living costs are projected to push more families into poverty over the next two years.
The report stressed that in the short term, most Nigerians were unlikely to experience income increases substantial enough to counter the pressure of rising living costs.
PwC described the consumption patterns of low-income Nigerians as a major driver of worsening poverty.
The report warned that as hardship deepened, domestic consumption might weaken, productivity gains could slow, and pressure on public finances could mount.
Without aggressive job creation, productivity improvements, and effective social safety nets, PwC cautioned, the goal of reducing poverty might be elusive.
Poverty situation aggravated by recent cost of living challenges - Yusuf
Reacting on the poverty level in the country, Dr Muda Yusuf, Managing Director/ CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, said: " Well, there is no doubt that we have a serious poverty
situation on our hands in the country.
But as to the specific number of Nigerians living in poverty, we need to have more insights into the methodology that has been used by the PWC before we begin to adopt it as something that is either valid or official to determine the validity of those numbers.
But there is no doubt we have a poverty situation which has been aggravated. It has been aggravated by the recent cost of living challenges that we had over the last two years.
"But one must say that those reforms were inevitable. But unfortunately, they have come at a cost. And one of the costs is the cost of living challenge that has been triggered.
"So, what we should be looking at now is how to deal with those challenges. And this will require, now that some progress has been made with the reform, especially in terms of stabilizing the macroeconomic environment, I think greater attention should now be paid to the issue of the cost of living.
"And it also requires a calibration of our policy instruments, our monetary policy, our trade policy, our investment policy, and of course, our fiscal policy. So we need to prioritize the issue of cost of living. I think that is extremely very important. Already we are seeing some acceleration in inflation, but there is still a lot more work to do as far as addressing the cost of living crisis is concerned.
"We need to have a policy that will specifically target those things that the poor spend their money on. Largely, I'm talking about things like food, like transportation. Like education for their children, like health. And of course, things like some very basic infrastructure that will enable productivity to be better enhanced, especially among the Small Medium Enterprises, SMEs.
"And we need to support small businesses too. But that is where we can create more jobs that can benefit the vulnerable segments of society."
Easing inflation has yet to translate into immediate relief for most Nigerians - Dada
Commenting on the poverty level of Nigerian people, Oluropo Dada, President, Chartered Institute of Stockbroker, CIS, said: "The apparent divergence between PwC's poverty outlook and the National Bureau of Statistics' inflation data is not a contradiction, but rather a reflection of different dimensions of Nigeria's macroeconomic reality.
"While inflation is moderating, this signals only a slowdown in the pace of price increases, not a reduction in the overall price level. Years of cumulative increases in food, energy, transport, and housing costs have entrenched a high cost of living, with severe implications for real incomes particularly for low-income and vulnerable households. As a result, easing inflation has yet to translate into meaningful or immediate relief for most Nigerians.
"Moreover, poverty outcomes are influenced by a broader set of structural and distributional factors beyond inflation alone. These include employment conditions, income and wage dynamics, productivity levels, exchange-rate movements, and the lagged effects of recent economic reforms. Poverty projections, such as those by PwC, therefore capture longer-term welfare trends and reflect the reality that incomes especially within Nigeria's large informal sector adjust slowly to macroeconomic improvements.
"This highlights the policy imperative to complement price stabilization with targeted interventions that raise incomes, expand employment, and strengthen social protection, since sustainable poverty reduction ultimately depends on translating macroeconomic stability into tangible improvements in living standards."
If current push against insecurity is intensified, cost of energy continues to decline, poverty level will drop - Adonri
Reacting as well, David Adonri, Analysts/ Executive Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities Limited, said: "Many people continue to dispute the official inflation rate figure due to its unjustified rebasing in 2025 ostensibly to meet the inflation rate target set in 2025 FGN Budget. Although food inflation is showing signs of moderation, transportation, rents and other costs are not relenting.
"While there is an element of truth in PWCs forecast of about 62% poverty rate in 2026, I think that the rate was as high as 80% in 2025 but may decline in 2026 if the current push against insecurity is intensified and cost of energy continues to decline.
Even with moderating inflation, poverty can worsen if wages lag, social support is inadequate - Oni
In his reaction on the poverty level of Nigerian people, Sola Oni, a Chartered Stockbroker /CEO, Sofunix Investment and Communications, said: "At the basic level, the apparent discrepancy arises because of inflation and poverty, though related, measure different things and can move in opposite directions.
"A decline in inflation reported by the NBS only means that prices are increasing more slowly, not that prices are falling or that living costs have become affordable. After prolonged periods of high inflation, prices remain elevated relative to incomes for many Nigerians.
"PwC's poverty projections focus on real household welfare, including income levels, purchasing power, employment, and access to basic services. Even with moderating inflation, poverty can worsen if wages lag, accumulated price increases, unemployment remains high, or social support is inadequate. Moreover, headline inflation averages may mask food inflation and regional cost-of-living pressures that hit low-income households hardest."
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Poverty outcomes depend on real incomes rather than headline inflation - Egbomeade
Reacting as well, Clifford Egbomeade, analyst and communications experts said: "There is no contradiction between PwC's poverty projection and NBS inflation data because both measure different economic realities. Inflation trending downward only means the pace of price increases is slowing, not that prices are falling.
"After cumulative inflation above 20-30 percent in recent years, the cost of food, transport, rent, and energy remains structurally high for households. Poverty outcomes depend on real incomes rather than headline inflation. PwC bases the 62 percent poverty projection on weak wage growth and fragile informal sector earnings that have failed to catch up with past price shocks. When incomes lag prices over several years, more people slip below the poverty line even during periods of disinflation.
"Distributional effects also matter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank show that low income households spend about 60-70 percent of income on food. Food inflation remains elevated due to insecurity, logistics costs, energy prices, and exchange rate pass through, meaning inflation for poorer Nigerians remains higher than the national average.
"Inflation and poverty operate on different timelines. Inflation captures short term price movements, while poverty reflects accumulated welfare losses from earlier shocks such as naira depreciation and fuel subsidy removal. Slower inflation alone does not restore purchasing power or reverse poverty without strong income growth, job creation, and effective social protection."
