Nigeria is once again entering a familiar but troubling phase of its political life: a season of restless defections, strategic silences, court-troubled primaries, and quiet negotiations across party lines.
To treat these developments as routine political manoeuvring would be a mistake. What the country is witnessing is not merely the ambition of individual politicians but a more profound institutional weakness that threatens the credibility of the next electoral cycle.
Political realignments ahead of elections are not new in Nigeria. What is new and more dangerous is their scale, timing, and motivation?
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Defections from opposition parties to the ruling party are not driven by ideological disagreements or principled dissent.
Sometimes they are increasingly preemptive, calculated moves by political actors seeking protection, a guaranteed ticket, or access to power in a system where party loyalty offers little security and internal democracy remains fragile.
As of December 2025, at least four sitting Peoples Democratic Party(PDP )governors had dumped the party, citing internal instability, the need to align with the federal government, and what they described as the PDP's declining influence. Two others followed before the year ended, and there are strong rumours that the only New Nigeria Peoples' Party (NNPP) governor is also defecting to the ruling All Progressives Party (APC).
At the heart of this trend lies the hollowing out of Nigeria's political parties. Political parties in the Fourth Republic have largely ceased to function as platforms for ideas, policy direction, or coherent programmes of governance. Instead, they have become temporary vehicles for electoral contestation, negotiation spaces where tickets are traded, alliances are brokered, and power is redistributed among elites. In such a system, consistency is punished, while opportunism is rewarded.
The spate of court interventions in party primaries over recent years has only intensified this instability, a development experts describe as the "judicialisation" of party primaries. When party members are uncertain whether internal processes will be respected or whether judicial rulings will upend outcomes at the last minute, loyalty becomes a liability. Politicians, reading the signals early, move to where they believe their chances of political survival are higher.
More troubling are the implications of these realignments for electoral accountability. Democracy depends on a simple bargain: citizens reward performance and punish failure at the ballot box. That bargain collapses when politicians who lose legitimacy under one platform can defect to another without consequence. The voter is left chasing individuals across party lines, unable to anchor expectations, policies, or responsibility.
These dynamics shift power away from the electorate and concentrate it among political negotiators. As the country approaches the 2027 elections, it is increasingly evident that decisions about who governs or who represents Nigerians are being made in closed rooms rather than open campaigns. Elections, in this context, risk becoming formalities that ratify elite agreements rather than genuine contests of ideas and performance. Public trust erodes, cynicism deepens, and participation declines.
The growing anxiety surrounding election forecasts further explains the current wave of realignments. Economic hardship, rising youth discontent, unpredictable voting blocs, and weakened patronage structures have made electoral outcomes less specific. Politicians accustomed to predictability now face volatility. Instead of engaging voters more honestly, many respond by hedging their bets, maintaining cross-party relationships, defecting early, or aligning with perceived centres of power rather than public sentiment.
This behaviour carries long-term consequences. Frequent defections weaken party discipline and discourage ideological development. They also burden the judiciary, which is increasingly drawn into resolving disputes that should be settled internally by political parties. Over time, this judicialisation of politics risks politicising the courts themselves, undermining their moral authority and public confidence.
Nigeria cannot build a stable democracy on a foundation of constant political migration. A system in which party labels mean little, internal rules are routinely violated, and electoral tickets are treated as commodities cannot produce accountable governance. It produces short-term winners and long-term instability.
The responsibility for reversing this trend lies first with political parties. Parties must rebuild internal democracy, enforce their constitutions, and impose meaningful consequences for opportunistic defections. Primaries must be transparent, credible, and final. Members must believe that participation matters and that rules will not be altered midstream to favour the powerful.
Regulatory institutions also play a role. Electoral reforms must move beyond administrative efficiency to address party discipline and accountability. While freedom of association is fundamental, democracy also requires guardrails that discourage cynical manipulation of the system. Without such safeguards, elections risk becoming increasingly disconnected from governance outcomes.
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Ultimately, however, the most significant pressure must come from citizens. Voters must begin to interrogate not just personalities, but patterns of behaviour. Political mobility should not be celebrated as cleverness; it should be questioned as a sign of inconsistency. Democracy matures not when politicians are comfortable, but when voters are demanding.
The coming 2027 elections will test Nigeria's political institutions in profound ways. The choices made now by parties, politicians, courts, and voters will shape not only who wins, but t how the country is governed afterwards. Political realignments, if left unchecked, may offer short-term advantages to a few but exact a long-term cost on the nation.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. It can continue down a path where elections are preceded by elite reshuffling and followed by public disappointment. Or it can begin the more complex work of strengthening parties, restoring trust, and re-centring democracy on voters. The signals from the current wave of realignments are clear: ordinary voters are increasingly being pushed out of the equation.
