Norrenberger has projected 2026 as a year of gradual macroeconomic normalization and selective investment opportunities, urging investors to position ahead of anticipated policy shifts.
With inflation easing and growth still fragile, Norrenberger anticipated significant policy rate cuts in 2026.
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"We expect monetary authorities to continue on an easing path, creating a more constructive backdrop for risk assets," the company said.
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In a statement, the firm said global markets in 2026 will be shaped by easing inflation, a slow normalization of monetary policy across major economies, persistent geopolitical risks, and accelerating structural changes such as energy transition and digitalization.
"The investment environment is transitioning from peak tightening to normalization, and this phase historically rewards forward-looking capital allocation," Norrenberger said.
Reflecting on Nigeria's performance in 2025, the company noted that the economy showed early signs of stabilization after a turbulent adjustment period.
"While 2025 was far from smooth, it reinforced an important lesson -- disciplined diversification and timely positioning consistently outperformed defensive inertia," the firm said.
Norrenberger noted that monetary policy remained restrictive for much of 2025, but the eventual easing pivot in the second half of the year marked a key turning point for domestic financial markets.
Looking ahead, the company expects Nigeria's GDP growth to strengthen to between 4.0% and 4.5% in 2026, supported by improving macro stability, stronger private sector confidence, and the lagged impact of structural reforms.
"We see 2026 as a year of consolidation rather than dramatic shifts, but one that offers meaningful opportunities for well-positioned investors," Norrenberger said.
According to the firm, "Improved FX liquidity and tighter policy coordination should support stability, although episodic volatility cannot be ruled out."
On fixed income, Norrenberger said the era of peak yields is likely behind the market, making medium-to-long tenor bonds increasingly attractive.
"As rates decline, investors should benefit not just from carry, but also from capital appreciation," it noted.
The firm also highlighted the Securities and Exchange Commission's move to mandate mark-to-market valuation for fixed income funds, describing it as a structural shift for the industry.
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"This change demands real portfolio management skill -- duration management, yield curve positioning, and active risk control will matter more than ever," Norrenberger said.
Despite the potential for increased short-term volatility, the company emphasized that fixed income funds remain a core allocation.
"Mark-to-market does not diminish return potential; rather, it separates active managers from passive ones," the statement said.
In equities, Norrenberger expects 2026 returns to be more selective and earnings-driven, following several years of strong market performance.
"The next phase of equity returns will be defined by fundamentals, not exuberance," the firm said.
