Low diesel output by local modular refineries is pushing Nigeria to rely heavily on importation of the products.
Also, the 650,000 barrels a day Dangote refinery produces well over the combined production capacity of existing modular refineries in the country.
Reports indicate that underperformance, outages and delays at regional refineries have limited local supply responses especially in Nigeria, the region's largest diesel market.
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Despite the start-up of new refining capacity and official claims of improving domestic supply, diesel, unlike petrol, remains fully deregulated and heavily import-dependent.
According to information from the from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) average domestic diesel production currently stands at about 6.1 million litres per day.
Dangote refinery accounts for the bulk of the output at 5.783 million litres per day, while Waltersmith supplies about 0.051 million litres; Edo Refinery 0.052 million litres and is around 0.289 million litres daily.
Against reported diesel consumption of 16.4 million litres per day in December, domestic supply covers only 37 per of national demand, leaving 63 per cent to the market.
The NMDPRA monthly supply data for 2025 indicated that in January, total diesel supply averaged 15.1 million litres per day, with imports contributing 8.6 million litres.
Supply inched up to 17.1 million litres in February and peaked at 21.1 million litres in March, when imports surged to 16.7 million litres, dwarfing domestic output of just 4.4 million litres.
However overall supply trimmed to 14.1 million litres per day in May, the lowest level in the year, as imports fell and domestic production weakened.
In-country refining helped stabilise supply between July and August, contributing up to eight million litres per day, imports remained the swing factor.
Another import-led rebound in October pushed supply to 21.3 million litres, before easing to 17.9 million litres in December.
Given the abysmal performance of local refineries, import of diesel from India into West Africa surged to record levels.
This further exposes the region's dependence on overseas refined fuel despite repeated policy commitments to boost domestic refining.
The NMDPRA revealed that Nigeria still import 63 per cent of its diesel as Dangote Refinery, Waltersmith Refinery, Edo and Aradel refineries supply a combined 6.1 million litres per day compared to daily demand of about 17 million litres.
The S&P Global Commodity data at Sea show that Indian diesel shipments to West African countries have moved sharply higher since 2022, peaking at nearly 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026, as structural supply gaps persist across the region's largest economies.
Between 2022 and early 2023, Indian diesel flows into West Africa were highly volatile, swinging between below 100,000 tonnes and above 400,000 tonnes. The fluctuations mirrored unstable post-pandemic demand, foreign exchange (FX) shortages and intermittent buying by regional fuel marketers, particularly in Nigeria and Ghana, where subsidy reforms and currency pressures distorted consumption patterns.
From mid-2023 through 2024, however, import volumes became structurally higher as regular monthly spikes above 400,000 tonnes pointed to growing reliance on Indian refiners, whose scale, pricing flexibility and access to discounted crude enabled them to displace traditional European suppliers.
India's emergence as Africa's dominant diesel supplier was also shaped by shifting global trade flows, as Europe reduced intake of Russian-linked products, leaving Indian gasoil searching for alternative markets, a report by Kpler showed.
The most striking acceleration occurred from late 2025 into early 2026, when shipments climbed steeply to an unprecedented 800,000 tonnes.The surge reflected not only rising consumption but also stress across West Africa's energy systems. Chronic electricity shortages have entrenched diesel-powered generation, while population growth, logistics expansion and industrial activities have driven sustained demand.
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The dominance of Indian diesel is also being reinforced by global trade dislocations.
A recent Kpler report notes that European Union sanctions banning oil products derived from Russian crude have sidelined some Indian gasoil from European markets.
While Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries have adjusted crude slates to meet compliance rules, European buyers remain cautious, diverting volumes toward Africa.
As a result, diesel cargoes have increasingly accumulated off the West African coast, intensifying competition and compressing margins in the Atlantic Basin.
