Historian and convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Dr Umar Ardo, has described the resignation and defection of Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano State from the opposition New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as a big political miscalculation and blunder.
He specifically declared the governor's as "a big mistake" and a misunderstanding of the "evolutionary history of Kano politics."
In a statement he issued, Ardo said Governor Yusuf ought to have "known that Kano politics has always essentially aligned with opposition politics, and never purposefully leaned toward the center. The pattern of its politics since independence validates this assertion."
Ardo recalled that in the First Republic, while the North and the country formed the Northern People's Congress (NPC) governments, Kano overwhelmingly voted for an opposition party, the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU).
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He added that in the Second Republic, while the North and the nation voted for the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Kano still tilted toward the opposition and voted for the People's Redemption Party (PRP).
According to him, under the present dispensation as well as in 1999, Kano rejected the perceived conservative party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and overwhelmingly voted for the perceived liberal People's Democratic Party (PDP).
Ardo said that when it turned out that the PDP formed the national government as well, Kano promptly voted it out after only one term in 2003 and voted in the opposition party, the ANPP.
In a further chronicle of the voting pattern in Kano, Ardo said, "Then, in 2015, along with other opposition parties, Kano joined the bandwagon and fused into the newly formed APC in opposition to the national government of the PDP. It remained in the APC for two terms under controversial circumstances, but in 2023, it returned to its opposition stance by voting for a fringe opposition party, the NNPP.
"Even when the courts, at the tribunal and Court of Appeal levels, tried to move the state into the ruling national party, the APC, Kano electorate staunchly stood against the move and the Supreme Court, perceiving the danger fraught in the process, reversed the move in its final verdict. Hence, keeping Kano politics where it has always been - predominantly in the opposition!
"To this end, therefore, by now moving out of the opposition NNPP and joining the APC, the ruling party at the centre, Governor Yusuf, and the APC are automatically courting defeat in 2027. Either the APC wins the national government and loses Kano State, or it wins Kano State and loses the national election. But they cannot win both, as Kano's election pattern over the years doesn't support that. The trajectory is clear; now the choice is left for the APC and Governor Yusuf to make," he said.
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