In Nigeria, as elsewhere, democratic governance is best understood not as a straight line or some mathematical progression, but as a learning curve--a nonlinear process shaped by all the things that tend to govern human affairs and human nature itself; it is a complex and multifaceted process marked by innovation, ideas, and inclusion, but also confronted by interruption, imperfect information and implementation, and the reality of too many competing and just demands contending for too little resources.
Governance is not only setting an agenda, but it entails the dynamic reassessment and reprioritising of that agenda as events unfold. And often the telling events are not of your own making and choosing, but respond to them and respect their impact, you must. Any democratic government must thus reflect not only the political climate of its time but also the economic conditions that define the scope of the resources it may have at its disposal upon which to govern.
The enshrinement of democracy in Nigeria was slowed not so much because Nigerians rejected it. It was slowed because leadership and institutions responsible for our democratic expansion did not fully understand the urgency and importance of managing diversity, delivering justice, creating tolerance, and strengthening political legitimacy through economic fairness. Yet, through the trials and troubles, democracy remained the lodestar. The quest for and hope of democracy guided us through situations that have beguiled and halted other nations.
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The Fourth Republic is therefore significant not because it is flawless, but because it represents Nigeria's best and most sustained attempt to permanently establish democratic ideals, ethos, and institutions meant to carry the nation.
The First Republic (1960-1966): Identity before nationhood
The First Republic was intensely regional, tribal, and ethnically charged. Politics was more dependent on identity than ideology. Electoral competition became so hyper-competitive that it distorted into an existential and conflictual exercise. Instead of moulding us together, the politics of the day was governed more by centrifugal forces. In sad irony, nationalists who fought together against colonial rule soon became unapologetic antagonists, champions of rival ethnic and regional blocs.
Events such as the Tiv Riots of 1963 exposed the inability of the young republic to manage inclusion, representation, and grievance. Alongside these tensions was a growing sense of Igbo disenchantment, despite the Igbo's strong commitment to pan-Nigerian nationalism, commerce, and mobility across the federation. In a way, the center could not hold in part because the central government sought to hold too much.
The collapse of political alliances, disputed censuses and elections, and perceptions of marginalisation went unaddressed. Losing power came to be seen not as an inherent cycle in the democratic process but as a permanent confinement to the political wilderness. By the mid-1960s, politics had ceased to be about governance; it became a struggle for survival.
- From disenchantment to strife: The Civil War
The coups and counter-coups of 1966 did not create ethnic fear; they were caused by such fear, and then they amplified it. Democratic arbitration had failed, and suspicion replaced trust. What followed--the Nigerian Civil War--was the tragic consequence of a state unable to assure its constituent groups of fairness, security, and belonging.
The war ended in 1970 with the declaration of "No Victor, No Vanquished"--a morally powerful statement. But the language of reconciliation did not always carry the day. Nor could it sweep away all the undemocratic flaws of our political culture. We forged ahead, thankful that the bloodshed was over; yet the invisible wounds to our collective psyche were not fully treated.
- Post-war reintegration: Healing deferred
While the war ended militarily, its lingering political and psychological consequences have been consequential. Policies such as uniform compensation for lost savings, abandoned property, and uneven reintegration into national power structures left enduring scars.
Over time, exclusion no longer expressed itself through secession, but through disengagement, mistrust, and alienation from the federal center. These unresolved grievances became quiet fault lines in Nigeria's political development, resurfacing periodically in political discourse and national debates.
- The oil boom and the seeds of economic decline
Nigeria's challenges were not only political; they were also economic and structural.
The oil boom of the 1970s brought forth sudden wealth unchecked by institutional discipline. Easy oil revenues weakened fiscal responsibility, encouraged rent-seeking, and disconnected governance from productivity. The state became the primary dispenser of wealth rather than the enabler of creative, job-oriented enterprise.
Corruption deepened. Inflationary pressures emerged. Import dependency increased. By the early 1980s, Nigeria was already living beyond its productive capacity. Economic legitimacy began to erode alongside political legitimacy.
- The second and Third Republics: Economic stress and political collapse
The Second Republic (1979-1983) inherited this fragile oil-dependent economy. While blatant ethnic politics initially declined under the glaring influence of 13 years of military rule, economic mismanagement became a way of life. Material politics dominated. Fiscal discipline weakened. Inflation rose. External debt mounted. Politics reverted to party over nation. On 31 December 1983, the military intervened again--not merely because of politics, but because the economy was failing.
Under military rule, economic distortion deepened as the years went by. Multiple exchange-rate systems institutionalised currency arbitrage. Access replaced productivity. Abacha's multiple FX windows entrenched rent extraction. Corruption became systemic. Inflation spiked. Manufacturing weakened. Instead of using the oil money to build a vibrant, non-oil-dependent economy with a strong industrial base, Nigeria blew the money. A minority grew wealthy. The rest of the people watched Opportunity pack its bags and go elsewhere.
By the late 1990s, Nigeria was economically exhausted.
- The Fourth Republic (1999-DATE): Democracy under economic pressure
The Fourth Republic was born into economic fragility. The early 2000s saw militancy in the Niger Delta, driven by resource-control grievances, disrupting oil production and national revenue. Although militancy was eventually quelled through political engagement and amnesty, new security-economic shocks emerged.
The rise of Boko Haram--and later widespread banditry--devastated economic activity across large parts of the North, disrupting agriculture, trade routes, education, and investment. By the early 2020s, insecurity had become a macroeconomic issue, not merely a security concern. We are a nation of over 220 million people with a birth rate among the world's highest. Yet, we continue to function under an economic model that barely functioned when our population was half its current size.
By the time President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, Nigeria faced severe inflation, FX market distortion, declining productivity, rising debt, weakened investor confidence, and widespread economic hardship. By 2023, Nigeria's economy was marked more by inertia than coherence--by consumption, not productivity. Evidence: multiple exchange rates, fuel subsidy bleeding the nation.
We were subsidising other countries while borrowing to survive. Debt servicing consumed over 90% of federal revenue in 2022. The CBN printed over N30 trillion through Ways & Means financing--an unprecedented financial recklessness. Inflation surged to 36%. Manufacturing had nosedived. President Tinubu had his job cut out for him from day one.
This brings us to the point:
- What is working in the Fourth Republic
In assessing what is working in the Fourth Republic, we must measure democratic gains, not sentiment -- the Fourth Republic's achievements must be assessed through institutional and performance indicators, not rhetoric.
* Civilian Supremacy and Democratic Longevity -- Nigeria has recorded over 26 uninterrupted years of civilian rule, the longest in its history. Democratic breakdown risk declines sharply after the 20-25-year threshold; Nigeria has crossed that mark.
* Electoral and Judicial Institutionalisation -- Since 1999, over 80% of major electoral disputes have been resolved through courts rather than extra-constitutional means. INEC has evolved technologically and procedurally, while courts now routinely overturn executive and legislative excesses.
* Expansion of Civic Space -- Registered voters grew from about 57 million in 1999 to over 93 million by 2023. Civil society has expanded, and internet penetration exceeding 50%, in addition to democratising economic space to allow citizens' unfettered participation in the digital economy, has transformed political engagement and scrutiny.
* Media and Accountability Pressure -- Nigeria ranks among Africa's top countries in media reach. Continuous scrutiny has imposed reputational and political costs on failure, altering elite behaviour in ways earlier republics never experienced.
* Policy Continuity -- For the first time, Nigeria has developed policy memory--through debt frameworks, sovereign wealth mechanisms, MTEFs, and independent revenue agencies--reducing institutional volatility.
- What is not working
- Where Democratic Legitimacy Is Being Lost
- -- Afrobarometer surveys show fewer than 35% of Nigerians consistently trust the federal government, and trust in political parties often falls below 25%. This deficit is experiential, rooted in lived economic hardship. We need to do a better job in making sure all Nigerians feel that the government serves them.
* Subnational Governance Failure -- Over 60% of states spend more than 70% of revenues on recurrent expenditure, with IGR below 30% in most cases. Weak local delivery erodes democratic belief.
* Economic Stress -- Inflation peaked over the last 20'years. Youth unemployment and underemployment exceeded 40% at various points. Poverty affected over 60% of the population starting from the early Twenties. Democracy weakens when livelihoods collapse--though by late 2025, signs of recovery were visible. We must accelerate and deepen the economic recovery.
* Security-Economy Nexus -- Insurgency and banditry disrupted agriculture, displaced many Nigerians across the country, strained urban economies, and amplified inflation.
Meanwhile, recent security measures are beginning to curb these pressures.
* Weak National Cohesion -- Identity still outweighs citizenship in opinion surveys. Historical grievances remain salient, though institutions like the National Orientation Agency are working to rebuild shared civic values.
- Nigeria-4th Republic under President Tinubu
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not inherit a neutral economy. In fact, he did not inherit a perfect economy. He inherited a structurally unjust system--marked by elite currency arbitrage, subsidy capture, and fiscal indiscipline. He dared to pull the trigger on the subsidy on oil and that on forex. And unleashed a regime of Reforms in several sectors of the economy.
By unifying the exchange rate, removing fuel subsidies, and restoring fiscal discipline, President Tinubu corrected not just economic distortions, but moral and democratic ones.
Structural injustice fuels alienation: reform, therefore, became necessary, for only in reform was there the chance for the justice essential to democratic governance. The signs of recovery for Nigeria are writ large:
* Inflation -- From a peak of 33.38 % in 2024, inflation declined consistently for about eight consecutive months, falling into the mid-teens (around 15%)--a shift from acceleration to control.
* GDP Growth -- Growth improved from 3.2-3.4% to around 4.0-4.1%, with the World Bank projecting about 4.4% if reforms continue. According to the IMF 2026 projections, Nigeria's 4.4% growth compares favourably with:
United States (2.4%), Germany (1.1%), United Kingdom (1.3%). Nigeria now ranks in the upper tier of emerging-market growth, achieved through correction rather than commodity windfalls.
* Non-Oil Trade -- A N6.1 trillion non-oil trade surplus signals reduced import dependence and improved competitiveness.
* External Reserves -- Reserves rebuilt to about $43bn, reflecting improved FX inflows and reduced arbitrage leakage.
* FATF Exit -- Nigeria's removal from the FATF grey list restored institutional credibility and reduced financial friction.
* Currency Arbitrage -- FX unification dismantled a decades-long policy-enabled arbitrage regime that rewarded access over productivity.
* Fiscal Transparency -- Nigeria moved from fiscal denial to fiscal disclosure--strengthening budget realism and accountability.
* Balance of Trade -- Highest in 15 years: N19.34 trillion surplus by September 2025 (about $18 billion).
* Balance of Payments -- From $3.32bn deficit in 2022 to an over $8bn surplus in 2025.
* Foreign Reserves -- From $3.5bn in 2023 to $45.4bn in 2025.
* Ways & Means -- N30tn securitized.
* Naira Arbitrage -- 70% gap in 2023, reduced to 2% in 2025.
* Petrol Subsidy Removal -- $10-$15bn annually removed from rent-seeking. With market forces now in play there is Competition and efficiency in the oil section.
* Sovereign Ratings -- S&P Positive; Moody's B3; Fitch Stable.
* Manufactured Exports -- Up 46.8% (H1 2025).
* Petroleum Production -- boosted from a paltry 800,000mbpd to 1.6mbpd in 2025.
* Agriculture -- Nigeria-Brazil Green Imperative Project (GIP)Value: $1.1 billion
-Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme
-Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ). The SAPZ is backed by $2.2 billion from AfDB, linking farms to processing, storage and markets.
-Bank of Agriculture (BOA) Repositioning
* Capitalisation approved: N1.5 trillion
-Cocoa exports: $600m (2023) to $2.5bn (2025). Grains production peaked. Food Prices falling and Stable.
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* Social Safety Nets - About 8.5 million households have benefited from the N330 billion naira shared as at mid - 2025. The target is 15 million households (approx. 62 million Nigerians)
-Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP). Under President Tinubu's Renewed Hope agenda, the first phase included about 500,000 recipients receiving N50,000 soft loans and support for older women. Still Ongoing. There is the Grant for Vulnerable Group. GVP In place.
-NELFUND-Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFund). N140.88 billion in total loans disbursed (tuition +upkeep) to close to 1 million beneficiaries.
-CREDICORP- set up in April 2024 to expand access to affordable consumer credit in Nigeria. By mid-2025, over 100,000 Nigerians had accessed consumer credit through CrediCorp
* Infrastructure- across the length and breadth of Nigeria, in every geo-political zone we see clear evidence of road construction. Over 270 roads are being constructed. The 4 Legacy Road Projects are Revolutionary and well underway.
* Health -- 2,100 PHCs revitalised; 2,700 underway. Utilisation: Visits to PHC facilities rose from 10 million (early 2024) to 45 million (by mid2025) -- nearly a 4x increase in use.
-More than 4,000 free caesarean sections were performed in National Health Insurance Authority empaneled facilities.
The List Goes On
- Conclusion: Unity, reform and democratic maturity
- Nigerian history teaches a clear lesson: soldiers entered politics when civilian leadership failed politically and economically. The Fourth Republic has endured because it is learning--sometimes painfully--to correct itself from within. REFORM IS NOT ANTI-DEMOCRATIC; REFORM IS DEMOCRACY'S INSURANCE POLICY.
Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, unity is being pursued through systemic reforms and corrections by dismantling privilege, restoring fairness, and rebuilding economic credibility.
Unity is not an event. It is a continuous policy choice. Nigeria's future depends on leadership willing to reform systems, confront historical grievances honestly, and build a democracy that works--not for some, but for all Nigerians.
So, What is the Verdict on Nigeria's 4th Republic? From Former President Obasanjo to Umar Yar'Adua, to Goodluck Jonathan, to Late President Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria has witnessed incremental efforts at nation building. But note this, every leader falls on his sword.
Nigeria in the Fourth Republic is on a firm path of recovery under the watch of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Nigeria is witnessing economic renewal due to a robust macroeconomic sequencing by President Tinubu. There are commitment and purpose. Nigeria is addressing some of its developmental demons. Though too much politicking seems to foul the air and distract, this government is focused on delivery and governance. The journey is not without its challenges, sacrifices, mistakes and bumps. That is why I urge all Nigerians to join hands with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to make a greater Nigeria a possibility.
Thank you
Sunday Dare (CON) Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication
Being text of speech delivered at the 23rd Annual Daily Trust Dialogue held on January 22, 2026 at NAF Conference Centre and Suite, Abuja
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