The country is once again placing a big wager on its vast natural resources. This time, however, President Joseph Nyuma Boakai believes the odds are finally in the country's favor.
Through a wave of mining and energy agreements with multinational companies, the Boakai administration is counting on as much as US$4.8 billion in fresh foreign investment to accelerate economic growth, expand infrastructure, create jobs, and underwrite an ambitious US$8 billion national development agenda. More than an economic strategy, the investment drive has become the administration's central political and developmental gamble--one that could define Boakai's legacy and shape his prospects for a second term in 2029, which is very likely that he would seek.
Speaking during his recent State of the Nation Address, President Boakai framed the expected inflows as a turning point for Liberia's economy. After years of sluggish growth, weak investor confidence, and stalled concessions, the government is now positioning Liberia as an investable destination once again--particularly in mining, infrastructure, and offshore energy.
"The government has strategically leveraged opportunities to attract credible investments and responsibly exploit natural resources for the benefit of Liberians," Boakai declared, underscoring a narrative of reform, discipline, and renewed credibility.
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At the core of this strategy is the belief that Liberia cannot finance its development ambitions through domestic revenues alone. While the country has recorded historic gains--most notably a US$1.2 billion national budget and a 35 percent increase in domestic revenue between 2023 and 2025--the scale of Liberia's needs far exceeds what the treasury can sustainably provide.
Foreign investment, therefore, is not optional; it is existential.
Mining Deals Anchor the $4 Billion Bet
The largest share of the projected US$4.8 billion--nearly US$4 billion--is tied to mining and infrastructure agreements with two global players: Ivanhoe Atlantic Inc. and ArcelorMittal-Liberia.
ArcelorMittal, already Liberia's single largest mining investor, operates the iron ore mine in Yekepa, Nimba County. Under an amended Mineral Development Agreement, the company plans to scale up production dramatically--boosting annual iron ore exports from roughly 8 million metric tons to nearly 20 million metric tons.
This expansion is not just about ore extraction. It is underpinned by capital-intensive investments, including a new iron ore concentrator at Yekepa, major upgrades to rail infrastructure linking the mines to the coast, and improvements at port facilities to handle increased export volumes.
The ripple effects are potentially transformative: improved logistics, enhanced regional trade capacity, thousands of direct and indirect jobs, and higher government revenues through royalties, taxes, and fees.
Complementing ArcelorMittal's expansion is Ivanhoe Atlantic's rail access agreement, which allows the U.S.-based firm to transport iron ore from neighboring Guinea through Liberian rail and port infrastructure. This deal reinforces Liberia's emerging role as a regional transit hub for mineral exports, turning geography into an economic asset and deepening the country's integration into West Africa's extractive value chains.
While mining anchors the investment wave, the energy sector accounts for an estimated US$800 million in anticipated inflows--primarily through offshore oil exploration.
The government has signed eight new petroleum agreements, split evenly between TotalEnergies and Oranto Petroleum. These agreements mark Liberia's most aggressive push in years to unlock its offshore hydrocarbon potential.
TotalEnergies has secured exploration rights for offshore Blocks LB-6, LB-11, LB-17, and LB-29, while Oranto Petroleum's agreements cover Blocks LB-15, LB-16, LB-22, and LB-24 in the Liberian Basin. The Oranto deals include a US$12 million signature bonus, with planned investments of up to US$200 million per block.
Adding to the momentum, a major U.S. oil company--yet to be publicly named--has applied to pre-qualify for some of the same offshore blocks, signaling that Liberia's offshore prospects are again drawing serious global attention. A government source hinted to the Daily Observer that the American oil giant might be in the country very soon.
If even modest commercial discoveries materialize, the implications would be profound, new revenue streams, energy security, downstream industries, and fiscal space to fund social and infrastructure programs long constrained by limited resources.
The Boakai administration's investment drive stands in sharp contrast to the struggles of the immediate past government, which often found itself unable to translate resource potential into bankable, confidence-inspiring deals.
Investor skepticism--fueled by governance concerns, concession disputes, policy inconsistency, and reputational damage--meant that investors had no confidence to come to Liberia. Despite campaign rhetoric about transforming Liberia into a middle-income country, foreign direct investment flows remained uneven, and large-scale financing for infrastructure proved elusive.
Boakai has made restoring trust a cornerstone of his leadership. Diplomatic re-engagement, improved relations with traditional partners like the United States, Liberia's election to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council (2026-2027), and a more predictable policy tone have all contributed to a gradual rebuilding of investor confidence.
All of this feeds into the administration's flagship policy blueprint: the ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID), launched in 2025 and costing approximately US$8 billion through 2029.
The agenda targets infrastructure and road connectivity, energy expansion and access, education and skills development, health systems strengthening, and agriculture and value-chain development.
Foreign investment proceeds--whether through concession fees, royalties, taxes, signature bonuses, or infrastructure co-financing--are expected to play a pivotal role in funding these priorities. Roads in the southeast, expanded electricity access, urban transport corridors, and industrial infrastructure are all directly linked to the success of the mining and energy deals now being signed.
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Politics and the 2029 Equation
Beyond economics, the political stakes are unmistakable.
The third year of any administration is widely seen as the make-or-break window. By 2027 and 2028, electoral calculations tend to eclipse governance. For Boakai, that makes the current investment push central not only to development outcomes, but to political survival.
If the US$4.8 billion investment wave translates into visible jobs, functioning roads, stable electricity, and rising incomes, the Unity Party could enter the 2029 race with a powerful narrative of delivery. If, however, projects stall or benefits fail to reach ordinary Liberians, the same deals could become symbols of missed opportunity.
Two years into his mandate, President Boakai's record resists easy judgment. There are real gains--record revenues, improved diplomacy, road construction, and renewed investor interest. There are also persistent challenges--inflation, unemployment, and high living costs that continue to test public patience.
In this context, the wave of mining and energy agreements is Boakai's best bet--the lever he is pulling hardest to bridge the gap between ambition and reality. Whether the bet pays off will determine not only the success of the ARREST Agenda, but how history--and voters--ultimately judge his presidency.
For now, Liberia is betting that its resources, managed differently this time, can finally deliver the growth and transformation long promised.
