Voters suffering bad governance won't vote continuity - PDP | APC has structural edge, but the three states remain competitive -- Analysts
By Chibuzo Ukaibe, Ademu Idakwo, JAMES KWEN, Samson Elijah, Abuja
Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Tinubu is banking on raking in an overwhelming majority of votes from Kano, Lagos and Rivers states, as political realignments in those states indicate.
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However, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) is looking to leverage the recent spate of defections into its ranks by governors and other elected officials, and the much-touted performance of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the opposition argues that Nigerians' condition will decide the ruling party's fate in those states.
But political commentators told LEADERSHIP Sunday that the APC had the structural advantage going into the election.
Big voting strengths of Kano, Lagos, Rivers
As key commercial nerve centres, these states have a history of large numbers of registered voters nationwide, and winning or losing one, two, or all of them could determine a presidential candidate's victory or performance in an election.
The voter register for the 2023 general election showed that Kano had 5,921,370 registered voters; Lagos, 7,060,195; and Rivers, 3,537,190.
The results of the 2023 presidential polls declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicated that the candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, won Kano State with 997,279 votes.
He was followed by the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Tinubu, who garnered 517,341 votes; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) standard-bearer, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, came next with 131,716 votes, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) scored 8,513 votes.
In Lagos, Obi of the LP won with 582,454 votes, followed by Tinubu of the APC with 572,606 votes. The PDP's Atiku came next with 75,750 votes, while Kwankwaso of the NNPP followed with 8,442 votes.
The 2023 presidential election results in Rivers State showed that Tinubu (APC) won the state with 231,591 votes; Obi (LP) received 175,071 votes; Atiku (PDP) followed with 88,468 votes; and Kwankwaso (NNPP) came next, with 1,322 votes.
These states also have impressive voter registration records in the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise.
Data from phases one and two of the CVR indicated that Kano recorded 161,178 registrations, second only to Osun (209,223) nationwide. Lagos recorded 124,970 registrations, while Rivers recorded 71,456.
A breakdown of data released by INEC at the end of phase one of the CVR in December 2025 showed that Kano recorded 159,669 registrations; Lagos, 123,484; and Rivers, 70,902.
Also, the latest report from phase two of the nationwide CVR released by INEC indicated that Kano recorded 1,509 prospective voters; Lagos, 1,486; and Rivers, 554.
Recent political developments in the country point to Tinubu's firm resolve to secure a large share of votes in these states in next year's polls.
In Kano, the combined efforts of Kwankwaso, the NNPP presidential candidate, and the party's governorship candidate, Abba Yusuf, as well as national and state assembly candidates, might have denied Tinubu a significant number of votes in the North-West state.
However, the NNPP and Kwankwaso political structure has been disrupted by the recent defection of Governor Abba Yusuf to the APC.
Yusuf defected from the NNPP, along with his commissioners, aides, over 20 members of the Kano State House of Assembly, and about eight federal lawmakers, to the APC.
The governor is now in the same camp as prominent APC leaders in Kano, including the party's former national chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau Jibrin, to give Kwankwaso a strong fight for the political soul of the state in favour of Tinubu.
For Lagos, the odds may work in favour of Tinubu and the APC, as the LP's presidential candidate, Obi, who won the state, and the party's governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, have defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Apart from the LP, which was the APC's major headache in Lagos during the 2023 polls, being weakened by these defections, the prospects of Obi emerging as the ADC presidential candidate remain unclear, as he has Atiku Abubakar--whom he came second to in the last presidential election--and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi to contend with.
Expressing this view when he appeared on Channels Television's breakfast show Sunrise Daily on Thursday, a former presidential aspirant, Dele Momodu, said:
"Today, if you ask me about the ADC, there are prominent potential candidates. Number one on the list today will be Alhaji Atiku Abubakar because he was the vice president.
"He (Atiku) has played at the highest level, having served as vice president for eight years. He began contesting the presidency in 1993, when he stepped down in favour of Chief Abiola.
"The next person will be Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, who has been Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for eight years.
"He has been governor for eight years. He has been a minister for eight years. Then we will go to Peter Obi, who has been governor of Anambra State, also a game changer."
In Rivers, Tinubu's victory was attributed to the powerful efforts of the then Governor Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), though a chieftain of the PDP.
Also, the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, is now in the APC and, despite his disagreement with Wike, both have vowed to work together to deliver Rivers State to Tinubu.
PDP, APC stakeholders react
But the national publicity secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Ini Ememobong, said the 2027 general elections would determine whether political defections remain a tool for mobilisation.
Speaking to LEADERSHIP Sunday amid the recent wave of opposition governors defecting to the APC, Ememobong noted that the opposition still won states controlled by the ruling party in 2023.
"It is the governors who are defecting, not the voters. This is a political experiment by President Bola Tinubu and the APC, but we are watching to see how it ends," he said.
He added that Nigerians may witness surprises in 2027, recalling that sitting governors have previously lost elections in their own states.
"Some lost senatorial bids while still in office, and others lost their federal constituencies.
"If you conduct a referendum today, many Nigerians will be dissatisfied with President Tinubu's administration," he said.
Ememobong stressed that public frustration with hunger, unemployment and the poor economy would shape the 2027 outcome.
"It's unrealistic to expect people suffering under a bad economy to vote for continuity," he argued.
On his part, an APC chieftain, Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, told LEADERSHIP Sunday that the president would fail in those states, arguing that his main opposition is Nigerians he has allegedly impoverished.
"Counting on misguided and confused governors defecting to the APC to protect their loot will not save him from being voted out by Nigerians, no matter the odds.
"We cannot continue to accommodate such tribalistic leadership at this period. How will he win votes in Rivers State after all that he has done against the state through Wike, unless such a person thinks that the people of Rivers State are dumb?
"Kano State is aware that the APC is deceitful and will never vote for such a party in 2027.
"Lagos State cannot continue to be a slave to one family. This is the period for them to free themselves from the shackles of what Tinubu represents," Eze insisted.
But an APC chieftain and convener of the Concerned APC Stakeholders Forum, Dr Dominic Alancha, argued that the APC administration has performed well enough to earn President Tinubu mega votes in the three states.
He told LEADERSHIP Sunday that elections in Nigeria are largely about stakeholder management and the alignment of such stakeholders.
He added that state governors are major stakeholders who cannot be easily waved aside.
He said, "Rivers is already in the APC's kitty, with the likes of Wike, who stood in for Tinubu in 2023 and is still standing for him.
"The governor has little or nothing to do about it, and you know Lagos is Mr President's stronghold. Even though he lost it to Labour in 2023, the dynamics have changed. Fences are being mended and mistakes corrected. That is why you are seeing the near collapse of the opposition party in the state.
"Kano is the major stake in the upcoming 2027 presidential election, and with Governor Abba Yusuf, who is one of the major pillars of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, abandoning the movement and joining forces with the likes of former governor and former national chairman of the APC, Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, and the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau Jibrin, in Kano, I can confidently tell you that the prospects of the APC in Kano, Lagos, Rivers and other major states across Nigeria are very bright."
APC has structural edge, but Kano, Lagos, Rivers remain competitive -- Analysts
A political analyst, Suleiman Gimba, has said that while the APC enters the next election cycle with clear structural advantages, the outcomes in Kano, Lagos and Rivers states remain far from guaranteed.
Gimba noted that the ruling party benefits from control of many state governments, access to incumbency resources and dominance of formal political institutions, giving it a strong starting position. However, he warned that elections are not won by structure alone.
"Performance deficits at both federal and subnational levels--particularly on inflation, insecurity, poverty and the poorly communicated tax reform agenda--mean the government still has significant persuasion to do," he said.
According to him, the 2023 elections demonstrated that widespread dissatisfaction can override incumbency where citizens feel materially worse off.
Explaining the strategic importance of Kano, Lagos and Rivers in President Bola Tinubu's electoral calculations, Gimba described the states as "vote multipliers."
"Kano's population and voter turnout tradition make it capable of delivering margins two to four times that of smaller states. Lagos combines population size with high civic awareness and agenda-setting power in national politics, while Rivers historically delivers bloc votes and substantial margins when politically cohesive," he said, adding that together, the three states can decisively shape presidential outcomes.
On whether the ruling party has a realistic path to securing mega votes in the states, Gimba said the possibility exists but is not guaranteed.
He described Lagos as the most politically stable of the three and the APC's strongest anchor, while noting that Rivers State remains unsettled due to the ongoing Fubara-Wike political conflict, which he said has fragmented elite consensus and voter mobilisation.
He added that Kano is heading into a high-stakes contest involving Rabiu Kwankwaso's entrenched grassroots movement, the APC's incumbency leverage and the presence of other parties such as the PDP and ADC.
"These dynamics mean that while the APC can compete seriously in all three states, landslide outcomes will depend on political management rather than mere control of state governments," he said.
Gimba also pointed out that recent defections and political alliances could significantly tilt the balance in favour of either the ruling party or the opposition, noting that Nigeria's party system remains fluid and elite-driven.
"Strategic alliances--whether formal or tacit--can reshape outcomes, especially in Kano and Rivers. However, excessive defections also risk voter backlash, particularly among politically conscious populations who increasingly view elite movement as opportunistic rather than principled," he said.
Assessing current trends, Gimba said the APC appears better positioned overall because it can campaign while governing--a factor he described as both its greatest strength and its greatest risk.
He also noted that the Senate's ongoing attempt to amend the Electoral Act could become a game-changer if passed early and implemented sincerely, particularly in areas such as internal party democracy, electronic transmission of results and dispute resolution.
However, he cautioned that the timing of the amendment raises concerns that it will lead to meaningful reform or merely project reformist intent.
Gimba added that Kano, Lagos and Rivers remain highly competitive political battlegrounds, stressing that governance outcomes, elite cohesion, voter sentiment and the credibility of the electoral framework would ultimately determine which party truly delivers the states.
Similarly, the Integrity Advocacy for Development Initiative (IADI) has identified Kano, Lagos, and Rivers states as pivotal to President Bola Tinubu's electoral calculations, noting that the states are critical not only because of their large voter populations but also because of the regional balance and political signals they send nationwide.
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Speaking with LEADERSHIP Sunday, the executive director of IADI, Comrade Christopher Ofomhi, described Kano as Nigeria's most electorally significant northern state, owing to its massive voter base and historically high voter turnout.
He observed that although the ruling APC has strengthened its foothold in the state through recent political realignments, the influence of powerful local political movements keeps Kano highly competitive.
According to him, delivering Kano will depend more on elite consensus and effective grassroots mobilisation than on party dominance alone.
On Lagos, President Tinubu's political stronghold and the nation's economic hub, Ofomhi noted that while the APC remains favoured, it is no longer unchallenged.
"While the ruling party is well positioned to win in Lagos, the margin of victory will be closely watched as a measure of popular support," he stated.
Ofomhi described the political situation in Rivers State as more complex, noting that internal divisions and shifting alliances have weakened the opposition's once firm grip, creating openings for the APC.
He added that although the ruling party has made notable inroads, Rivers still leans toward opposition unless the APC consolidates emerging alliances.
Ofomhi further noted that the APC has a realistic path to securing significant votes in all three states, driven by incumbency, federal influence and recent defections.
He added, however, that shifting alliances, prevailing economic conditions and the level of voter mobilisation could still alter the political equation in any of the three key states.
Also speaking with LEADERSHIP Sunday, the executive director of the Women Inclusion, Empowerment and Leadership Development Initiative (WIELD-I), Comrade Amarachi Evangel, described Kano, Lagos and Rivers as pivotal battlegrounds in Nigeria's evolving political landscape, stressing the need to assess them through an objective and democratic lens.
According to her, the strategic importance of the states lies in their large voter populations, economic relevance and regional influence, adding that strong electoral performance in the states significantly enhances national legitimacy and political momentum.
Breaking down prospects by state, she told LEADERSHIP Sunday that the ruling party remains dominant in Lagos due to entrenched political structures, but rising urban dissatisfaction over the cost of living and governance challenges could affect victory margins.
In Kano, she observed that strong grassroots politics and internal divisions make outcomes less predictable, while in Rivers State, opposition forces currently appear stronger due to fluid local alliances.
On earning massive votes, Evangel said success is realistic but not guaranteed.
"Mega votes will not come automatically. Unity, effective grassroots engagement and responsiveness to economic and social concerns will be critical," she said.
She added that while defections could influence outcomes, voter loyalty is increasingly issue-driven rather than personality-based.
