Saturday's election offered a glimpse into what could shape the 2027 general elections, particularly in Abuja.
Saturday's Area Council election in Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was more than a routine local contest that produced chairpersons and councillors. It offered a glimpse into what could shape the 2027 general elections, particularly in Abuja.
Voting commenced early in many polling units across the six area councils--Abaji, Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kwali, Kuje and the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC). The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won five of the six councils. Five councils have 10 wards each, while AMAC has 12.
Of the 1,680,315 registered voters in the FCT, 1,587,025 collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and were eligible to vote. Voting took place across 2,822 polling units, using 4,345 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) machines deployed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
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A total of 637 candidates from 17 political parties contested the 68 positions -- six chairperson and 62 councillor seats. While winners have been declared, only one candidate, Moses Paul of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in AMAC, has rejected the result, alleging irregularities, particularly the alleged transfer of voters from primary polling units without prior notice.
INEC acknowledged the migration but said it was implemented to reduce congestion in polling units with more than 1,250 registered voters.
Wilfred Ifogah, the commission's acting director of Voter Education and Publicity, said affected voters were notified via text messages and emails between 18 and 21 February, with details of their new polling locations.
However, beyond these disputes, the election provides important lessons. If its conduct and outcome are anything to go by, it may serve as a template for how the 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections will unfold in Abuja.
Below are eight key takeaways:
1- APC is still the party to beat
The APC's victory in five of the six councils (AMAC, Abaji, Bwari, Kuje and Kwali) reinforces its dominance in Abuja's grassroots politics.
Incumbency played a role in places like AMAC and Abaji, where sitting chairpersons sought re-election. Control of local structures and strategic ward-level mobilisation gave the party a significant advantage.
Besides, APC benefited from opposition fragmentation. The Labour Party (LP) failed to field chairmanship candidates due to internal leadership disputes and the departure of a major group for the ADC. Meanwhile, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which won in Gwagwalada, remains deeply divided, with a faction aligned with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike exerting influence.
If opposition divisions persist, APC is likely to maintain its advantage in 2027. Defeating the ruling party will require not just popularity but unity, cohesion and strong grassroots organisation.
2 - Despite internal strife, PDP remains Nigeria's main opposition
Despite ongoing internal crises at the national and state levels, the PDP demonstrated it is far from irrelevant.
In Gwagwalada, its candidate, Mohammed Kasim, polled 22,165 votes, defeating APC's Yahaya Shehu, who secured 17,788 votes. In several other wards, PDP candidates remained competitive, showing the party's enduring grassroots presence.
However, last-minute withdrawals of PDP chairmanship candidates in AMAC and Bwari weakened its overall performance. The election showed that the PDP retains nationwide structures capable of challenging the APC. However, unresolved internal conflicts remain its albatross and could reduce voter enthusiasm for the opposition party.
3- LP without Peter Obi is a shadow
The Labour Party's 2023 momentum was primarily driven by Peter Obi's candidacy. The area council election suggests that without a unifying national figure, the party faces serious organisational challenges. Mr Obi has now joined the ADC and campaigned for some of its candidates in the Abuja election.
LP did not field candidates in the election due to a prolonged leadership crisis between factions led by Nenadi Usman and Julius Abure. Although the Supreme Court has recognised Ms Usman's executive, internal instability continues to undermine the party's grassroots consolidation.
The lesson is clear: personality-driven waves do not automatically translate into sustainable political structures. For LP to remain viable, it must invest in long-term party building beyond presidential election cycles.
4- ADC has a long way to go
The ADC participated in the election but struggled to emerge as a formidable challenger in most councils.
While the party has sought to position itself nationally as a reform-oriented alternative, its performance in Abuja exposed organisational weaknesses, limited grassroots mobilisation and low voter visibility.
In the AMAC Area Council, however, the party's candidate, Moses Paul, popularly known as Dr Mo, came second with 12,109 votes, far behind APC's Christopher Maikalangu, who polled 40,295 out of 62,861 valid votes.
Third-force parties in Nigerian politics often face a credibility dilemma: they promise reform but lack the structure and machinery required to win elections. The ADCs showing in the FCT Area Council poll reflect that pattern. For the party to become competitive in future elections, it must significantly deepen its grassroots engagement and organisational capacity.
5 - Nigeria's low voter turnout trend is reflected in Abuja
Turnout across many polling units was low, reflecting a troubling national trend seen in previous cycles.
Although the Abaji Area Council recorded relatively strong participation, several urban centres, particularly in AMAC, experienced sparse attendance. The overall turnout in the election was 14 per cent, an increase from the 9.4 per cent turnout recorded in the same election in 2022.
Voter fatigue, economic hardship, distrust in political actors, and perceptions that local elections carry less weight may have contributed to the apathy.
Low turnout undermines democratic legitimacy and increases the influence of entrenched political structures and vote buying. Addressing civic disengagement must become a priority.
6 - PWDs were largely absent at polling units
Despite provisions in the Electoral Act aimed at promoting inclusion, participation by Persons With Disabilities (PWDs) appeared limited.
There were reports of inaccessible polling locations, limited assistive materials, and insufficient priority arrangements. While some polling officers made efforts, systemic planning appeared inadequate.
True electoral inclusion requires deliberate infrastructure design, better voter education and more comprehensive training for electoral officials.
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7 - Vote buying remains a structural threat
Vote buying, though less brazen in some urban centres, remained an undercurrent throughout the election.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) arrested 20 suspects for offences ranging from vote buying and selling to obstruction of electoral officials, with a total of N17,218,700 reportedly involved.
Despite the heavy security presence across the capital, Yiaga Africa flagged isolated incidents of vote buying and the early closure of voting in some locations. The economic vulnerability of many voters continues to make them susceptible to inducements.
Unless poverty, weak enforcement and entrenched political practices are addressed simultaneously, vote buying will continue to distort electoral outcomes. The Abuja poll underscores the need for reforms that go beyond technology to tackle the economic and ethical foundations of electoral malpractice.
8- BVAS worked properly
One of the brighter aspects of the election was the performance of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) deployed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
In most polling units, accreditation proceeded smoothly, with fewer technical disruptions than in previous cycles. This helped curb multiple voting and strengthen procedural credibility.
However, logistical delays and occasional network issues persisted. While technology is enhancing electoral integrity, consistent training, reliable backup systems and improved infrastructure remain essential.
If Abuja is indeed a rehearsal for 2027, political actors must draw the proper lessons: build strong structures, resolve internal conflicts, deepen inclusion, strengthen civic trust and enforce electoral laws.
