Economist Dr Adu Owusu Sarkodie has stated that the escalating war in the Middle East could unexpectedly increase Ghana's revenue if global oil prices continue to rise.
Speaking on Joy News' PM Express Business Edition, Dr. Sarkodie explained that geopolitical conflicts often trigger economic shocks, but oil-producing countries like Ghana could benefit from higher crude prices in the international market.
"The war in the Middle East is somehow expected, but the war in Europe (Russia-Ukraine) is not," he noted.
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He highlighted Ghana's position as a crude oil exporter, emphasizing that international price increases could translate into higher export earnings. "If we keep the quantity the same, then we stand a chance of getting more revenue than projected," he said.
Dr. Sarkodie suggested that any additional earnings from rising oil prices could be used strategically to cushion vulnerable groups from the negative effects of global price shocks. He specifically mentioned targeted interventions to support transport operators, who are often the first to be affected by fuel price increases.
"So as we are keeping them, we are cushioning them from a possible negative impact of this," he said.
Despite the potential economic gains, Dr. Sarkodie cautioned that prolonged conflicts carry uncertain broader implications. He noted that Ghana has not yet felt the full economic consequences of the conflict, but warned that extended crises could expose structural weaknesses in the economy.
"So we are just praying that it doesn't travel because if it travels for months and years, as the Russian-Ukraine one has been, then we need to really strengthen our economy," he added.
He stressed the need for Ghana to go beyond macroeconomic stability and focus on strengthening the real sectors of the economy, including production, agriculture, industrial output, and services.
