Nigeria: Crude, Condensate Output Dips to 1.48mbpd in February, Puts 2.5mbpd Target in Jeopardy

Nigeria's combined crude oil and condensate output dipped to 1.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2026, down sharply from 1.62mbpd in January.

This was contained in the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) Crude Oil and Condensate Production February 2026 report.

The report highlighted that February Production recorded the lowest, and Peak Combined crude oil and Condensate were 1.41 million bopd and 1.56 million bopd, respectively.

According to the NUPRC, crude oil production slid to 1.313mbpd--88 per cent of the 1.5mbpd OPEC quota--from January's 1.45mbpd.

Analysts see this decline as casting doubt on the nation's 2.5mbpd production target by the end of the year.

However, condensate output rose slightly to 170,259 barrels per day from January's 116,373bpd, but could not offset the crude decline.

Average crude oil represents 88 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd), comprising crude (1,313,695 bopd) and condensate (170,259 bopd).

Analysts are concerned that lower volumes threaten revenue amid volatile prices, potentially widening Nigeria's fiscal deficits in a year when energy reforms are critical for growth.

While blended condensate outputs remain stable, unblended figures highlight blending inefficiencies at terminals.

This slump from January's near-98 per cent quota compliance raises fresh concerns over infrastructure challenges, theft, and underinvestment, jeopardising ambitions to hit 2.5mbpd amid global energy demands.

Recall that Nigeria has set a target of 2.5 mbpd of oil production, aiming to achieve it by the end of 2026, building on the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.

It aims to boost export earnings (90 per cent of forex) and government revenue (70 per cent), amid oil reserves of 37 billion barrels and gas reserves of 210 trillion cubic feet.

NUPRC's "Project One Million Barrels" initiative boosted averages to 1.7-1.83mbpd temporarily in late 2025, but early 2026 data suggests reversals, including unscheduled maintenance in the Niger Delta.

NUPRC's 2024-2026 action plan promised cost reductions to $20 per barrel and methane cuts, alongside 37 new crude routes to combat losses.

Yet, with reserves at 37.28 billion barrels, the sector--contributing 90 per cent of exports--struggles against global energy shifts and legacy issues, stabilising output but failing to expand sustainably.

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