During the heydays of the military regime of General Sani Abacha and his ill-fated self-succession agenda which he intended to achieve through adoption by the five political parties all sponsored by his government, I sought the views of a retired military officer who was into politics at the time.
It was a very sensitive subject at the time, more so for a retired military officer and many who spoke out of tune on the subject met with an inconvenient response from agents of the government, some of them with their lives. But this military officer was brave enough and ready to dare the odds. He said to me without hesitation, that not minding the fact that he was in firm control of both the military and political stakes in the country, Abacha was not going to succeed. His explanation was that Abacha was bound to face difficulties transmuting from a military commander in chief that he then was to a civilian commander in chief that he was aspiring to be.
The military officer told me that it was at that delicate moment when Abacha was to actualise the plan of moving from military dictator to civilian dictator that complications might possibly occur.
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As it transpired eventually, the Abacha self-succession bid came to a definitive end with his mysterious death. And with his demise all sorts of worms started crawling out of the woodwork about the self-succession bid which led Nigerians to discover that the entire plan had plots within plots involving both military and civilian figures across the country and that despite all appearances to the contrary, General Abacha was in actual fact being led deceptively to a sticky end which was what eventually happened to him and his government.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is now involved in a similar caper in his bid to win a second term in power, needs to learn from the banana peels of the Abacha misadventure.
Yes, the circumstances between the Abacha and Tinubu capers are different in many respects. One occurred under a dictatorial military regime which had no constitutional legitimacy in the first place. Under such circumstances, to have even thought of transmuting himself from military to civilian dictatorship was not only morally and legally wrong, it amounted to tempting fate, which in most circumstances never always bodes well for those who do so.
As an elected president holding the mandate of the Nigerian people, President Tinubu is perfectly within his constitutional right to seek a second term in office. And whatever he can do to secure a second term in office is acceptable within the ambit of the law. So in comparison with Abacha, President Tinubu is morally, legally and constitutionally covered to do what he is doing now in his bid for a second term in office.
But what we can do in the case of President Tinubu is to examine the elements of second term bid taking into account what we all know on the matter (overtly and covertly) and from the benefit of hindsight to be able to determine whether his second term bid will be successful or not.
The main plank of President Tinubu's second term bid lies on the belief that state governors of the federation will be the determinants of the 2027 presidential elections. This comes from the realisation that president Tinubu is not in a sound state of health to undertake a grueling 36- state presidential campaign. And president Tinubu himself is not known to be a soap box political spell binder in the mould of some known political figures in the country. This, coupled with the earlier point of his failing health, makes it well-nigh impossible for the president to sell himself convincingly to the people of Nigeria through campaigns. President Tinubu's preferred mode and forte in politics is to work through his appointed agents in a pyramidal structure where he will sit alone at the top directing and expecting such agents to pledge allegiance and deliver the political goods to him.
Another very important factor in this regard is that president Tinubu and his political minders know very well that his disastrous policies over the past three years have earned him the abiding ire of Nigerians across the country.
All these probably explains why the president is placing his bets on wooing the 36 state governors to not just join the ruling All Progressive Party (APC) but also to work for his victory at next year's presidential elections. By the last count 33 out of the 36 governors are now with the APC. Even the three who are outside the loop have one way or the other pledged to "win" the presidential elections in 2027 for president Tinubu.
But are these defections for real or is it a matter of a game of deception being played out between president Tinubu and the governors which will blow up in the run up to the 2027 elections?
President Tinubu, like Abacha, desperately wants to secure a second term in the elections of 2027 that he is willing to do what it takes to win it. Governors, especially those seeking a second term as well those running out their second and last terms per the constitutional limits, are also desperate to avoid a "friendly" invitation to "chat" with the anti-corruption agencies once they leave office. For those governors who intend to go for a second term, additionally they reckon that defecting to President Tinubu's ruling APC would brighten their chances.
But there are underlying indications that both sides are not filial to the arrangements between them. Some governors, who are well aware of president Tinubu's "use and dump" proclivity, despite appearing to support the president are however secretly hedging their bets and working with the opposition. They know that as the governorship elections come two weeks after the presidential elections it would not be beyond the president having used them to secure his re-election may turn round to deny them the assistance needed to secure their second term. They are aware of such a precedent in the 2003 elections when President Obasanjo, having negotiated and secured the support of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) South West opposition governors for his re-election, turned round and reneged on his promise and worked to ensure the defeat of five of them minus then governor of Lagos Tinubu who was the only one that retained his seat among them. Some of the governors fear that president Tinubu might just borrow a leaf from that action by President Obasanjo.
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The governors would bear in mind that Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike, who is the president's political man Friday, having now fought back to recapture his Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) faction which has been recognised by the courts, might just be the cat's paw to be used by the presidency to decide which governor to be allowed to "win" the governorship election or not regardless of party affiliation.
But above all both the presidency and governors seemed not to reckon with the fact that their arrangements notwithstanding, in the 2027 it is looking like it is the people of the country not governors, senators, Reps, police, military or security agencies that will determine the outcome of the elections in a dramatic way. And just as General Sani Abacha overlooked the auguries of the political climate of his time and became a victim of it, something similar might happen in the 2027 elections.
Interesting times certainly lie ahead of Nigeria pertaining to the 2027 elections.
