Yobe State is administratively divided into three senatorial districts or geopolitical zones, known as Zones A, B, and C, which are used for both political representation and administrative convenience.
These are Zone A (Yobe East), Zone B (Yobe South) and Zone C (Yobe North).
Presently, of those racing to succeed Gov. Mai Mala Buni, the major emerging 2027 gubernatorial aspirants include Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai (Zone B), Abubakar D. Aliyu (Zone B), and Musa Mustapha (Zone A). Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai represents Yobe South APC Senatorial District at the National Assembly, Senator Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan, APC Yobe North, while Senator Ibrahim Gaidam APC represents Yobe East.
Nigeria's tradition of rotating leadership among senatorial zones at the state level, for Yobe in this instance, dictates that after Zone A's turn where the current Governor hails from, it is widely expected that Zone B should produce the next governor. However, looming large over Yobe's political landscape is former Gov. Geidam, who, after serving two terms as governor, was instrumental to crowning Gov. Buni as his successor in 2019, and deftly stepped aside as a senator and is now Nigeria's Minister of Police Affairs.
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But as party stakeholders are busy positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 elections, political analysts are worried that the race across the state's three senatorial districts may not tilt in favour of power balancing among the three. This is because the alliance that has shaped Yobe's leadership for over a decade, that of a family-backed political structure has renewed freshly the debate about who will inherit Yobe's gubernatorial seat in 2027.
A careful consideration of this historical context reveals that since the return to democratic rule in 1999, there is palpable fear that Governor Buni, a son-in-law of Ibrahim Gaidam, is set to play the Buni/Gaidam hegemony card, threatening to rear its head once again in Yobe, fuelling the fear that Buni may anoint a candidate from the same Zone A like him, in the person of Sen. Musa Mustapha, a.k.a, Coolers. Sen. Musa Mustapha, the current Senator representing Yobe East, who took over from Geidam after he was appointed minister, is also the father-in-law of Sen. Ibrahim Geidam. The speculation, smelling nepotism, is that Sen. Musa Mustapha's emergence as Governor will pave the way to the Senate for Gov. Buni in 2027.
Insiders further revealed that for the Yobe guber race, Plan B for Gov. Buni is the current Secretary to the State Government, Baba Mallam Wali (BMW), from Zone C, who will have served 12 years as SSG if he completes his tenure with Gov. Buni, having served four years with Gov. Gaidam and eight with Gov. Buni.
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Within this framework, Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, the Madakin Fika, from Zone B, which has over 50% of Yobe's population, appears to garner a lot of support among the electorate who are using performance as yardstick for their choice come 2027. This time around, if APC wants to win the gubernatorial election easily without facing any challenges, they should reintroduce the zoning system because it will encourage the electorate to come out en masse to vote for the party.
