In Uganda, a big question looms: How can the country stay ahead of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks driven by climatic events? The country is already feeling the pressure of climate shocks such as floods, landslides and temperature variabilities, which change mosquito breeding and pathogen development, raising the risk of diseases such as malaria, yellow fever and Rift Valley fever.
The Second Annual Scientific Meeting of the FORECAST project (Forecasting outbreak risks from extreme climate with active surveillance technology) took place in Kampala on 19-20 February 2026. The event brought together all project partners and scientists, along with senior Ministry of Health staff, district health and veterinary officers, pastoralist representatives and community health workers to tackle this question.
The consensus across the two days was strong: the days of reacting after outbreaks hit must give way to early, data-informed prevention and rapid control. That is the promise of FORECAST, and it sits squarely within the project's commitment to evidence-based, community-centered disease prevention and control.
A tool built to see outbreaks coming
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FORECAST is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research and sees Malaria Consortium working with the Uganda Virus Research Institute, Uganda Red Cross Society and the Uganda National Meteorological Authority, among others. The project has been designed as a practical early warning tool that can issue alerts before potential outbreaks of priority mosquito-borne diseases affecting humans and livestock. It takes a One Health approach, recognising that the health of people is closely connected to the health of animals and our shared environments.
Developing an early warning system like FORECAST depends on collaboration across disciplines and government sectors. Climate, health and disaster response actors all hold different pieces of the puzzle, making shared data and coordinated planning essential. By bringing together climatic and other indicators with health and vulnerability data, FORECAST helps districts understand not only when vectors are likely to surge, but also which communities are most at risk. As Dr Mansoor Ranjar of World Health Organization emphasised, early detection, early warning and rapid response should work as one package because time saved is lives protected.
Linking climate to vector biology and disease transmission, Dr Tarekegn Abeku, Principal Investigator of FORECAST project, underscored why anticipation matters. Floods lead to proliferation of mosquitoes and warming temperatures shorten the malaria parasite's growth within the vector. Those changes bring about changes in transmission patterns and make looking ahead essential. FORECAST is about listening to those environmental signals early enough to act.
Dr Julius Lutwama, Co-Principal Investigator of the project, spoke about the link between floods and arboviral disease outbreaks in Uganda and stressed the need for rapid response. Because resources are limited, precision planning is non-negotiable. Drawing on this reality, Dr. Catherine Maiteki Ssebuguzi of the National Malaria Elimination Division, Ministry of Health, highlighted that data enables the efficient and optimal use of available resources for disease prevention and control.
Early warnings must reach the last mile
Using risk maps that layer hazards, socioeconomic vulnerability and coping capacity, planners can move from broad, expensive response to targeted and timely action. That means the right commodities, people and communication reach the right places when they are needed most. Better data supports more effective decisions and more targeted action that can mean lower associated costs, while keeping the focus on protecting lives.
A constant theme throughout the meeting was that the value of forecasting is only truly realised if it leads to action that protects communities - moving insights from models to solving real-time health problems affecting communities. Early warning systems depend not only on satellite imagery, climate modelling and surveillance data, but also on the people responsible for acting on those signals. Village health teams, district health teams, local leaders and pastoralist communities all play a vital role in identifying risks, sharing information and coordinating responses before they escalate. Dr Allan Muruta, Commissioner of the Epidemiology and Surveillance Department, Ministry of Health, stressed the need for timely and complete data for decision-making and rapid response at every level of the system.
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The FORECAST project prioritises turning high-quality data into real-world decisions, strengthening district systems and ensuring the last mile is not the last to know. The project places partnerships with government, communities and technical agencies at the fore, so that tools are not just scientifically sound, but also locally owned and used.
From reacting to preventing
As the meeting closed, one takeaway stood out: Uganda should continue investing in epidemic intelligence from satellite data to reports from communities. With tools like these being developed by the FORECAST project, the country can move from reacting to preparing, and from preparing to preventing and timely response actions.
If the spirit at the project's annual meeting is any sign, stakeholders are ready to build that future together, seeing the outbreaks before they affect communities and meeting them with clarity rather than crisis.
