Ivory Coast's parliament has signed off on a new National Development Plan, mapping out the country's economic path through 2030. The centerpiece is an investment push of FCFA 114,838.5 billion, equivalent to roughly $209 billion or €175 billion, built around six pillars spanning security, agriculture, private investment, human capital, infrastructure, and governance. Unlike past cycles, the government wants the private sector to carry most of the load this time, targeting 70% of the total from private hands.
That shift reflects a lesson from the outgoing plan. Between 2021 and 2025, the country raised FCFA 41,735 billion, falling short of its FCFA 59,000 billion goal. Public agencies beat their own targets with room to spare. Private investors did not keep pace, and closing that gap is now central to the new plan's design.
The broader economy has held up well through a rough stretch for global markets. Growth averaged 6.5% a year over the past five years, and incomes have risen alongside it, with GDP per person climbing from FCFA 1,373,529 in 2021 to FCFA 1,653,500 in 2024. Fiscal discipline has improved too. The budget gap narrowed to 3.0% of GDP in 2025 from 5.2% two years earlier, even as public debt crept up to 59.5% of GDP from 50.2%, a trade-off policymakers call manageable for now.
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Price pressures have eased. Inflation sits at 1.4%, comfortably under the region's 3% ceiling, giving the central bank room to hold its policy rate at 5%. External accounts are improving as well. The current account gap narrowed to FCFA -2,136 billion from FCFA -3,944 billion, though the trade surplus shrank slightly to FCFA 215 million in May from FCFA 415 million.
The bigger test lies ahead. Success hinges on convincing private investors to show up at a scale they have not yet matched. A national PPP framework is being built, with early donor support already in place, and officials are pointing to recent debt sales and rating upgrades as evidence that markets are willing to bet on the plan.
Key Takeaways
Ivory Coast returned to the Eurobond market in February with a $1.3 billion, 15-year bond at a 5.39% coupon. Orders reached $6.3 billion from 270 investors, five times the offer size. Days later, the IMF board completed a review of its $4.8 billion program and released $832.8 million. The fund expects growth to slow to 6% in 2026 from 6.5% in 2025, and inflation to rise to 3.3% from near zero, tied to demand shifts from the Middle East conflict. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.3% of GDP. A separate debt strategy notes external debt service could reach 17.7% of government revenue in 2026, close to the IMF's 18% threshold. Officials say debt distress risk stays moderate, but note limited room to absorb new shocks. Higher oil prices, if they persist, add pressure on the import bill and the currency peg.
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