As opposition parties and political movements continue their search for a common platform ahead of the December 2026 presidential election, concerns are growing over whether another coalition built mainly around defeating President Adama Barrow can avoid the problems that followed the 2016 coalition victory.
Former TANGO Executive Director Madi Jobarteh and political commentator Coach Pa Samba Jaw have both warned that opposition parties must learn from the collapse of the 2016 coalition before attempting to build another alliance.
Their comments come as Coalition 2026, led by KMC Mayor Talib Ahmed Bensouda, moves ahead with its campaign preparations, while the United Democratic Party and other political parties and movements pursue their own coalition arrangements.
For both Mr Jobarteh and Coach Jaw, the central question is not simply who can defeat President Barrow. It is what happens after the election.
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Mr Jobarteh has argued that if a political party or candidate leaves a coalition, contests separately and eventually wins, the country could witness a repeat of what happened after the 2016 election.
"If you have any party or candidate leaves the coalition and they win, we will most likely see the repeat of the 2016 scenario in 2017," he said.
He described what followed the 2016 election as "self-consolidation", arguing that politicians who enter government through party structures are likely to focus on consolidating their own political power.
"These are politicians coming from a political party, connected with political parties, other political formations, and so the moment they enter State House in 2027, the overriding objective would be self-consolidation," he said.
The focus according to Jobarteh is self. "How do I maintain power, keep power, entrench myself?"
According to Mr Jobarteh, the President and cabinet could quickly become dominated by political calculations rather than the institutional reforms that opposition parties promised during the campaign.
"And so the president and the cabinet he or she is going to form, a bunch of politicians are all going to begin to create their spaces," he said.
He said he was therefore not surprised by the eventual collapse of the 2016 coalition.
"I was not surprised at all, the collapse of the 2017 or 2016 coalition," he said.
Mr Jobarteh recalled that he had warned in December 2016 against filling the new government with politicians.
"I have said it in December that, for example, Barrow was already president, but then don't bring politicians in the cabinet," he said.
He referred to political experiences in countries including Zimbabwe, Kenya and Senegal, arguing that political coalitions can quickly become vehicles for the consolidation of power once elections are won.
"As long as it's about politicians and victory is secured, you know, self-consolidation becomes an objective immediately," he said.
Mr Jobarteh's proposed solution is significantly different from the current party-led coalition arrangements or a candidate-led coalition.
He argued that opposition parties should first agree on a national reform agenda rather than simply choosing a presidential candidate and distributing political positions.
"For me, the political parties, rather, the opposition, should have come together to agree on an agenda, which we don't even need another five years for," he said.
"Within three years, we can deliver a constitution for a Third Republic."
He proposed that such a coalition should be led by a technocrat rather than the leader of one of the political parties.
"But then that coalition should be led by a flag bearer who is a technocrat, who is a non-partisan, non-political, at least, I mean, not fully known to be a supporter of any party or a member of any party," he said.
Mr Jobarteh said the person should have "the necessary integrity" and should lead a temporary government focused almost entirely on institutional reforms.
He argued that the government should not attempt to use the transitional period to launch major socioeconomic projects.
"And that person also, when he wins, identifies a similar set of people as cabinet ministers," he said.
"But their job is constitutional, legal, institutional reforms necessary to restructure the very foundations and institutions and processes of this republic."
He added: "We don't need you to get into building any school or building any road or into any socioeconomic projects."
Instead, he said, the state should continue operating while the political parties focus on parliamentary work and constitutional reform.
"Let the state government run as it is for the next, you know, two to three years," he said.
"And the political parties should be concerned about how do we go to the parliament so that we receive the bills and we pass them."
Mr Jobarteh believes that after the constitutional reforms are completed, the country should return to elections.
"And so that in three years, we should be able to get a new constitution that should lead to new elections and all the parties now go and contest on their own," he said.
For Mr Jobarteh, such an approach would benefit political parties whether or not they win the subsequent election.
"I think this is what we should be talking about. This is what we should be doing," he said.
He argued that political parties should be thinking beyond their immediate electoral ambitions.
"Because it is in their interest," he said.
"The tendency is if anyone wins and engages, I mean, in Barrow's, dismiss even UDP out of his government and all the other political parties and entrench himself."
He said supporters who backed political parties in the expectation that they would benefit from a coalition government could ultimately become casualties of political consolidation.
"Whoever thought I sm supporting Barrow in 2017, you became a casualty," he said.
Mr Jobarteh said the same could happen to supporters of today's opposition parties if they repeat the same approach.
"So today, 2026, they can say all the things they are saying, but whoever thought, well, we are supporting this party, we are behind this party or candidate, most of those people that were kicked out," he said.
His conclusion was that political parties should prioritise changing the political system before competing for power within it.
"What would have been in their interest is we go first and foremost, remake this republic," he said.
"And when we do that, we can go back."
He argued that even a party that fails to win a subsequent election would benefit from a reformed political system.
"The new republic that would be there would be a republic which would serve the interests of all political parties, even if you are in the opposition," he said.
Mr Jobarteh also raised concerns about the position of opposition parties within the current political system.
"Right now, if you are in the opposition, this republic as it is structured does not support you," he said.
"You face harassment, you face denial, you face restrictions. All right. I mean, you face abuse."
He cited the state broadcaster as an example.
"Today you go to GRTS, they do not show any opposition party," he said.
"I mean, that has to change."
He said such issues could not be solved simply by changing the person occupying the State House.
"That is a system change issue," he said.
Mr Jobarteh argued that the incumbent enjoys significant access to state resources while opposition parties operate at a disadvantage.
"You see the incumbent enjoying immense public resources and all other parties being denied and so on and so forth," he said.
Political commentator Coach Pa Samba Jaw approached the coalition question from a historical perspective, arguing that the current opposition should understand why previous attempts at unity were formed in the first place.
"When they talk about coalition, sometimes I laugh," he said.
"Let's look at why we needed a coalition."
Coach Jaw traced the history of opposition coalition efforts to constitutional changes that altered the electoral system under former President Yahya Jammeh.
He referred to Section 48 of the Constitution and changes made in 2003.
"Section 48 of the Constitution, Section 3, had said that you cannot be declared the winner of the elections unless you have more than 50 per cent of the votes. Jammeh saw his votes going down from 59 per cent to 52 per cent. After the 2001 elections, he said, you know what, we are going to amend that," Jaw said.
He stated that the reason that was made easier for him was that the UDP had boycotted the National Assembly elections.
"So he [Jammeh] had an overwhelming majority, and they were able to amend that in 2003," he said.
According to him, the constitutional change made it necessary for opposition parties to work together to defeat the incumbent.
"As a result, now it's like the only way that we can remove this guy, we have to come together," he said.
He recalled efforts to build opposition cooperation around the National Alliance for Democracy and Development (NADD), including meetings held in Atlanta, United States. He said the opposition initially appeared capable of making significant electoral gains.
"That led to us trying to bring NADD here in 2003. We brought them to Atlanta, had a meeting with them. They went back. Halifa was the coordinator. NADD came about and was very popular. Very, very popular."
He recalled that the alliance (NADD) won several by-elections, which he said alarmed the Jammeh government.
"I think they went about, I think it was about eight by-elections, NADD won about five of them," he said.
Coach Jaw said the government subsequently moved against opposition figures.
"Jammeh was scared for his life. He knew something had to happen, otherwise I'm going to lose," he said.
He recalled the arrests of opposition figures in 2005 and the divisions that subsequently emerged among opposition leaders.
"Jammeh was scared for his life. He knew something had to happen; otherwise, I am going to lose. And this was why, in 2005, he arrested Halifa Sallah, OJ Jallow, and Hamat Bah," Jaw said, adding that "But when he did that, he was very strategic because he knew the only two other people who are outside there will be Ousainou Darboe and Wa Juwara [leader of the National Democratic Action Movement]. They don't see eye to eye. So if you look at it, he was very strategic in what he was doing. He needed a disruption of NADD's progress. So he manufactured a crime and arrested these people."
Jaw said so by the time they were released, former Nigerian President Obasanjo had to come. Jaw recalled the internal disagreements and struggles within NADD, which included meetings outside the NADD alliance that included the PPP, NRP, UDP, and Asan Musa Kamara, who was the chair of the whole NADD exercise.
"When that happened, UDP decided we were withdrawing from this process. We had tried to talk Ousainou out of staying. He said, nope, we are done. They went to the elections. Jammeh defeated them," Jaw said.
The opposition again attempted to unite ahead of the 2011 election, but disagreements over leadership prevented a common front.
He said those experiences demonstrated how difficult it has historically been for Gambian political parties to put aside their individual ambitions.
"2011, we said, let's try again," Jaw said.
He gave historical background to the Agenda 2011, which produced Hamat Bah as the candidate for the United Front. He mentioned that Bah's party, NRP, left the UDP-led coalition and joined PDOIS' United Front initiative.
"NRP now switched sides from now, because after 2006, they sided with UDP. But this time around, they saw the opportunity and said, no, no, Ousainou, you go on your own. We are going to the other side now. We are going to work with PDOIS and they had their convention," Jaw said.
He said the results of 2011 was very revealing.
"The 2011 elections was very revealing. The United Front, whose candidate was Hamat Bah, had 11 percent. Mr. Darboe went from 23 percent in 2006 to 17 percent," he said.
He stated that there were serious irregularities during the voting process and both groups came with statements talking about the elections and the irregularities.
Coach Jaw also referred to the emergence of the Gambian Opposition for Electoral Reform, or GOFER, after opposition groups raised concerns about electoral irregularities. He said the opposition agreed to boycott the 2012 National Assembly elections, unless there were changes.
"Jammeh didn't care about them and what they wanted. Hamat Bah said, you know what, I'm not boycotting, I'm running. Hamat Bah and his people ran," he said.
He said opposition parties began working together on electoral reform even when they could not agree on a common presidential candidate.
"Jammeh came with his elections agenda. Changed a lot of things. But one thing that worked for the opposition was he changed the rules and said, now on the spot, counting. Now you don't have to carry the ballots and tell people, you know what, you can carry your own ballots, we'll carry our own. Because that's what they were doing, pretty much intimidating everybody," Jaw said.By 2015, however, the political environment had changed significantly. In 2016, the arrest of UDP figures and the killing of Solo Sandeng created what Coach Jaw described as a serious threat to the existence of the opposition.
"The whole UDP, pretty much executive, were in jail and all that stuff. Now the opposition faced a threat of existence. They were forced to the negotiation table," he said.
According to Coach Jaw, this was the environment that eventually produced the 2016 coalition.
"Let's go and negotiate. Let's come up with something. They were deal making and all that stuff. We knew what was happening. But we said, you know what, we have to make this work. That's how we had a coalition."
But Coach Jaw believes the coalition's eventual collapse can be traced to a specific moment in March 2017.
"In my estimation, it collapsed on the 5th of March, 2017," he said.
He referred to a press conference involving the UDP, NRP and GMC, during which Ousainou Darboe opposed the idea of President Adama Barrow being forced to step down after three years.
"And Ousainou Darboe uttered those words, if Barrow is to be forced to step down after three years, I will take anybody who does that to court," Coach Jaw said.
"That was the beginning of the end of coalition 2016."
He argued that the statement was particularly significant because of Mr Darboe's influence within the coalition.
Coach Jaw disagreed with the argument that a three-year presidency would necessarily have been unconstitutional, pointing to provisions in the coalition agreement relating to constitutional amendments and elections following a presidential vacancy.
"There was nothing unconstitutional about Barrow stepping down after three years," he said.
"All he could have done was resign."
He said the coalition agreement had contemplated constitutional changes under which a vacancy in the presidency would be followed by elections within 90 days.
Looking at the current political environment, Coach Jaw said the fundamental problem is that many political parties are built around personalities and presidential ambitions rather than clear ideological positions.
"You know why it is difficult to have a coalition in The Gambia?" he asked.
"Parties are not formed based on principles or ideologies."
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He argued that many political parties are formed because their leaders want to become president.
"People form parties because they want to become presidents," he said.
"You talk to most of these parties, they have zero ideologies, zero whatsoever."
Coach Jaw warned that the country could end up replacing one political system with another without addressing the underlying problems.
He said the current political environment was different from the circumstances that forced opposition parties together in previous elections.
In 2006, 2011 and 2016, he said, the opposition faced a serious threat from an incumbent government and therefore had a stronger reason to unite.
"2005, 2006, 2011, 2016, there was a threat against the opposition," he said.
"We had a dictator who was killing, who was sending these politicians to jail and they knew that, you know what, if you do not start together, we will all perish."
But, he argued, the current opposition has a different challenge.
"Now you have [many] candidates," he said.
"Every day there is a new one."
He accused some politicians of being more interested in becoming president than in developing a common national programme.
"These people are ready to be president. They are not interested in anything else," he said.
Coach Jaw nevertheless agreed with Mr Jobarteh that an opposition coalition should be based on a programme rather than simply on the identity of its presidential candidate.
"Unless we have a coalition that is based on an agenda coalition, a program led coalition, you are going to have a problem," he said.
But he added an important qualification.
"A program led coalition will not be meaningful if it is not led by somebody with integrity," he said.
"You have to be honest. You have to be a person of integrity, a person who would honor his or her words."
He warned that failure to learn from previous coalitions could produce another political cycle in which voters support a coalition only to see its members become divided after taking power.
"And based on what I am seeing now, I think we may just end up helping somebody else to become president and to the detriment of the Gambian people," he said.
The interventions by Mr Jobarteh and Coach Jaw come as opposition parties remain divided over the structure and leadership of the coalition movement.
Talib Bensouda's Coalition 2026 has already selected its flag bearer and is presenting itself as a vehicle for political change and institutional reform. Other opposition parties are pursuing separate coalition arrangements.
The disagreement therefore goes beyond the question of who should carry the opposition flag. It is increasingly becoming a debate over what type of political transition The Gambia needs.
Should opposition parties unite behind a political leader and attempt to govern together? Should they instead agree first on a limited reform programme and allow a non-partisan technocrat to lead a short transition? Or can the existing political parties overcome their rival ambitions and establish enough trust to prevent a repeat of the 2016 experience? With the presidential election approaching, those questions are becoming harder to avoid.
For Mr Jobarteh, the priority should be rebuilding the institutions of the republic before politicians compete to control them. For Coach Jaw, the history of the past two decades provides a warning: coalitions formed only because political parties want to defeat an incumbent can easily collapse once the common enemy disappears.
The central challenge for the opposition, therefore, is not merely to unite. It is to agree what the unity is for, what it will deliver, who can be trusted to deliver it and what happens after the votes are counted
