Food prices rose sharply for the sixth consecutive month in July, putting renewed pressure on households despite a further easing of Nigeria's headline inflation to 15.43 per cent.
The latest inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that food inflation rose to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July from 17.52 per cent in June.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation also accelerated to 5.56 per cent from 3.75 per cent in June, indicating continued pressure on the prices of essential food items.
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The NBS attributed the increase to price movements in a wide range of staples, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn and ginger.
By contrast, headline inflation moderated by 48 basis points to 15.43 per cent in July from 15.91 per cent in June. The decline was attributed largely to lower domestic energy costs and a modest appreciation of the naira.
Month-on-month headline inflation also slowed to 1.57 per cent in July from 1.66 per cent in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of moderation.
Compared with July 2025, when headline inflation stood at 24.94 per cent, the latest figure represents a significant decline, although the continued rise in food prices remains a major concern for households.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, fell to 14.97 per cent year-on-year in July from 23.95 per cent in July 2025. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined sharply to 0.15 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June.
However, market prices showed that consumers were yet to feel the full impact of the broader decline in inflation.
A foodstuff dealer, Mr Augustine Elon, said the price of local rice had declined from N60,000-N65,000 to N55,000-N60,000 per bag, but added that higher transport and marketing costs had eroded the benefit.
"Transport and marketing costs have eaten everything. Our margins are thinner," he said.
Elon added that Olenti beans had risen to N155,000 per bag from N120,000-N150,000, while iron beans increased from N90,000 to N115,000. The retail price rose from N95,000 to N120,000.
A bag of garri also increased from N13,000 to N17,000.
Another trader, Mrs Mary Idowu, said some food items had recorded marginal reductions, with foreign rice selling at N66,000 compared with N68,500 previously, while flour declined to N49,000 from N54,000.
She, however, said the prices of eggs and sugar had remained relatively stable.
For Mr Idris Yakubu, who transports food commodities from Kano, vegetables had recorded some of the sharpest increases.
He said a large basket of tomatoes now cost between N70,000 and N75,000, compared with N40,000-N45,000 previously, while a bag of onions had more than doubled to N150,000 from N70,000.
Pepper, however, declined slightly to N90,000, while a middle basket of UTC Hausa tomatoes sold for between N75,000 and N80,000 amid seasonal shortages.
Food Inflation Threatens Reforms
The Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, described persistent food inflation as the biggest threat to household welfare and the gains of ongoing economic reforms.
Yusuf said food inflation was "eroding household purchasing power, worsening poverty and food insecurity, and weakening the inclusiveness of ongoing economic reforms."
He attributed the pressure to structural challenges, including insecurity on farms, high transportation and logistics costs, expensive energy and fertiliser, supply-chain disruptions and imported inflation.
"Food, transportation, housing, utilities and energy account for about 72 per cent of current inflationary pressures. Monetary policy alone cannot solve this," Yusuf said.
He urged the government to prioritise farmers' security, expand irrigation and mechanisation, provide affordable credit and agricultural inputs, and invest in storage and logistics infrastructure.
He also called for greater exchange-rate stability and increased local refining to reduce demand for foreign exchange.
According to him, addressing these structural constraints would be critical to ensuring that the decline in headline inflation translates into tangible relief for households.
Analysts at Cowry Asset Management also identified food supply conditions, agricultural output, logistics costs and energy prices as key factors that would determine the near-term inflation outlook and the direction of monetary policy.
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"Food inflation remains the major near-term risk to the disinflation process," they said.
The analysts noted that the sharp month-on-month increase in food inflation to 5.56 per cent showed that pressure on essential food prices remained strong.
They nevertheless maintained that the broader inflation outlook was positive, projecting further moderation in August.
"Looking ahead, we project the headline inflation to decelerate further to 14.82 per cent in August 2026 as we expect that Nigeria's inflation remains cautiously positive, with headline and core inflation showing signs of gradual moderation," they said.
The analysts added that the decline in headline inflation to 15.43 per cent and the sharp easing in month-on-month core inflation to 0.15 per cent suggested that underlying price pressures were beginning to weaken.
"If this trend is sustained, inflation could continue to moderate gradually in the coming months, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and easing non-food price pressures," they said.
