President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has highlighted a substantial decline in oil theft and inflation as key indicators of Nigeria's economic recovery, pointing to improved oil production, stronger external reserves and renewed investor interest as evidence of progress since his administration took office in 2023.
In his October 1, 2026, Independence Day broadcast, Tinubu said the economy had recorded growth of more than four per cent in 2026, supported by contributions from both the oil and non-oil sectors. He also acknowledged that inflation had fallen considerably from its peak, while foreign reserves had improved and the foreign exchange market had stabilised.
The President's remarks came against the backdrop of far-reaching economic reforms introduced since 2023, including changes to the foreign exchange market, the removal of petrol subsidies and tighter monetary policy aimed at addressing macroeconomic imbalances.
For stakeholders in the oil and gas industry, the decline in oil theft has also drawn attention to security operations in the Niger Delta, particularly the activities of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), which works with government security agencies to protect oil infrastructure.
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Reflecting on the country's difficult economic circumstances, Tinubu acknowledged the hardship Nigerians had endured during the reform process.
"Our journey has not always been easy. In truth, it has generally been too hard for too many. We have known moments of great hope and periods of profound disappointment. We have endured war, military rule, economic crises, insecurity and political upheaval. Yet through it all, Nigeria, with the indomitable spirit of its people, has endured," he said.
Highlighting the administration's economic scorecard, the President stated: "Our economy has grown by over four per cent this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth. Oil theft is down. Inflation has fallen substantially from its peak."
He added that the country's foreign reserves had been rebuilt and the foreign exchange market had stabilised. Nigeria also recorded more than $6 billion in non-oil export revenue in 2025, which he described as the highest in the country's history.
Despite these improvements, Tinubu said reducing the cost of living remained a major priority.
"Our priority is to bring down the cost of living. We will achieve this by lowering the cost of producing and moving the things Nigerians consume," he said.
The President also pledged continued cooperation with state and local governments to strengthen primary healthcare, basic education and essential public services. He said his administration had maintained timely salary and pension payments since 2023 and reformed the national pension programme to benefit retirees and vulnerable Nigerians.
The security of oil infrastructure remains an important component of Nigeria's efforts to increase production, improve government revenue and strengthen foreign exchange earnings.
Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, led by High Chief Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, was engaged by the Federal Government to support the protection of oil assets across the Niger Delta.
The company works alongside established security agencies to monitor pipelines, identify illegal connections, report suspected crude oil theft and support efforts to prevent vandalism and unauthorised activities around critical petroleum infrastructure.
Stakeholders have linked the improvement in oil security to the operations of Tantita and other security agencies, with some attributing a reported 79 per cent decline in oil theft to these interventions. However, the figure requires independent verification against official production and security data.
Tantita's operational approach is built partly on the involvement of people familiar with the waterways and communities of the Niger Delta. Fishermen, boat operators and former militants are among those whose knowledge of the terrain can support surveillance and the identification of suspicious activities.
The company's operations have been credited by supporters with helping to reduce disruptions to petroleum production and improve the security of pipelines and other oil assets.
Beyond surveillance, Tantita has also pursued initiatives intended to provide alternative livelihoods for communities affected by illegal oil activities. In partnership with the Stakeholders Development Network and Ecosus Pro Nigeria Limited, it launched the Tantita Sustainable Rice Farming Initiative to encourage participation in agricultural production.
The company has also been associated with employment opportunities across pipeline-related activities. It reportedly employs about 136,000 people directly, with indirect employment extending to more than 300,000 others, although these figures require independent confirmation.
Lawmakers and other stakeholders have expressed support for efforts to protect the country's oil infrastructure. Chairman of the House Committee on Host Communities, Dekor Dumnamene Robinson, has commended Tantita's contributions to national security.
Members of the House of Representatives' joint committees on Host Communities and Public Petitions have also praised the company's work in safeguarding critical oil assets.
Sustaining these gains will require continued coordination among security agencies, host communities, regulators and oil operators, alongside transparent oversight and reliable measurement of production losses and recoveries.
Technology and surveillance in oil infrastructure protection
The growing importance of oil security has increased the need for technology-driven surveillance and rapid incident response.
Tantita says it incorporates surveillance and technology integration into its security operations to improve monitoring, detect threats and facilitate communication between personnel.
Its stated capabilities include high-resolution cameras, night vision, thermal imaging and remote monitoring systems designed to identify suspicious activities around sensitive facilities.
The company also describes the use of motion detection and artificial intelligence-enabled surveillance to flag unusual activity for investigation and response.
Other security technologies highlighted by the company include biometric access controls, smart-card systems, automated barriers, perimeter intrusion detection systems and alarms designed to detect forced entry.
Tantita says it also deploys communication systems, centralised control rooms and emergency notification platforms to coordinate responses across facilities, including locations where conventional communications infrastructure may be limited.
Such systems can support the early identification of pipeline interference, improve information sharing and help security personnel respond more quickly to potential threats.
However, the effectiveness of technology depends on maintenance, reliable power and communications, trained personnel and cooperation with government enforcement agencies.
...Oil production and investment prospects
Improved oil security is unfolding alongside renewed efforts to attract investment into Nigeria's upstream oil and gas industry.
One major development is the proposed Bonga Southwest/Aparo deepwater project, which is estimated to attract up to $21 billion in investment.
The project, located in Oil Mining Lease 118, is expected to have peak production capacity of approximately 175,000 barrels of oil per day and 140 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the OML 118 contractor parties--Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria (Deepwater) Limited and Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited--executed an addendum to the production-sharing contract and an addendum to the dispute settlement agreement.
The agreements are intended to advance the project towards a final investment decision, although its development timeline will depend on the completion of the necessary commercial, technical and regulatory processes.
Tinubu also approved the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, designed to improve the competitiveness of Nigeria's deepwater fiscal framework and encourage fresh investment.
These measures form part of broader efforts to improve the investment climate, increase production and strengthen the contribution of the oil and gas industry to the national economy.
Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said reforms in the oil and gas sector had contributed to improved production and foreign exchange earnings.
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He noted that higher oil output had supported the accumulation of external reserves and strengthened the Central Bank of Nigeria's capacity to stabilise the naira.
Yusuf also highlighted improvements in security in oil-producing communities as an important development, alongside efforts to attract major investments into the sector.
He said deregulation of the downstream petroleum market had also helped create conditions for the Dangote Refinery to operate, adding that the development could encourage further investment across the industry.
According to him, developments across the upstream, midstream and downstream segments have contributed to changes in the sector's investment outlook.
Monetary reforms and the inflation challenge
Beyond oil production, the administration's economic adjustment programme has relied heavily on monetary and foreign exchange reforms.
Under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, monetary policy was tightened to address inflationary pressures, while liquidity management was strengthened. The central bank also sought to limit monetary financing of government spending within statutory provisions and restore focus on price stability.
Foreign exchange reforms included the adoption of a willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, efforts to unify exchange rate windows and the clearance of verified foreign exchange backlogs.
These measures were intended to improve transparency in the currency market, restore investor confidence and strengthen the supply of foreign exchange.
The reported recovery in external reserves has also been an important part of the policy response. However, reserve levels and inflation trends remain subject to changing economic conditions, including oil prices, foreign exchange inflows, food costs and domestic demand.
For households and businesses, the central test of the recovery will be whether improvements in macroeconomic indicators translate into lower living costs, stronger purchasing power and sustainable employment growth.
