Washington DC — Although former South African President Nelson Mandela just may pull a rabbit out of a hat, no one in the Clinton administration expects that agreement on a Burundi peace accord will have been reached, or will be ready for signing when President Clinton arrives in Arusha, Tanzania.
Mandela who has been attempting to broker a peace deal since the beginning of the year, invited President Clinton to witness what he hoped would be an historic signing ceremony. He also invited twenty African heads of state.
To spur a settlement, Mr. Mandela set an August 28 deadline for Burundi's warring parties to reach agreement and at least publicly, has still not abandoned hope that a settlement by that date is possible. "Let's not be pessimistic. I don't see any problems at all and I think we are going to sign," he told reporters on arrival at Arusha's Kilimanjaro Airport on Saturday.
Burundi has proved a tangled knot for just about everyone since peace negotiations began in 1997. Shortly before his death last year, Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere, who first wore the mantle of settlement facilitator, complained as he wrangled with the Burundi government over the participation of opposition groups, "...all the suggestions have been rejected...by the government of Burundi."
Even choosing a mediator has been a challenge. Rebel groups were split over Nyerere when he entered the negotiation process, while Tanzanian relations with the Burundi government have ranged from cool to politely correct. Burundi's two main rebel groups opposed Mr. Mandela taking on the role as mediator after Nyerere's death because, they said, South Africa's government covertly backed the Burundi government.
Mandela spoke sharply to Burundi's leaders right from the start. He accused them of being responsible for the slaughter that has taken more than a quarter million lives since 1993. "Please join the modern world," he told them during a 90-minute speech in January. "Why do you allow yourselves to be regarded as leaders without talent, leaders without vision?"
The rough ethnic division in Burundi is between the Hutu majority and a Tutsi minority. Hutu rebels took up arms against the Tutsi-dominated army after the first democratically elected president - a Hutu - was assassinated in 1993. But the ethnic divide is not the only motor of conflict. The Arusha talks have involved 10 Tutsi parties and 7 Hutu parties at odds with each other in a variety of ways.
The main sticking points in a draft accord concern the establishing of an electoral system, reaching agreement on who will head a transitional government, the right ethnic balance in a national army and security in general.
Last week Burundi President Pierre Buyoya said the various factions might sign parts of the accord on which there was agreement, such as a two-year transition period, "so as not to offend the mediator." But two other significant rebel groups are not participating in the talks at all.
For Tanzania, a settlement will ease the increasingly heavy burden of hundreds of thousands of refugees that have settled on its territory. More than twenty-five hundred have crossed into Tanzania so far this month. And the rate of refugees entering daily is increasing, a UNHCR spokesman says. With what is sure to be a hard-fought legislative election set for October, Tanzania's President Benjamin Mkapa would like to see this issue off the agenda so that his electoral opponents cannot make capital out of it..
The Burundi conflict reflects a pattern of regional instability, including neighboring Rwanda and Congo-Kinshasa, that worries the Clinton administration as well as African leaders.
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In February, flanked by Secretary of State Madeline Albright, National Security Advisor Sandy Berger, and Chief of Staff John Podesta, President Clinton spoke directly via satellite television to all the Burundi parties gathered for talks in Arusha. "Will you lead the way to a lasting settlement for the larger conflicts of the Great Lakes region? Or will you hesitate and falter? If that were to happen, I am afraid a disaster would befall your people, and it would seep beyond your borders. We have seen how a spark lit in one small part of this region can engulf the whole."
Likely to be overlooked as the Clinton delegation and Mandela ponder the way toward peace in Burundi, is the devastating effect of drought that has been battering the Arusha region. According to officials, the shortfall in maize and other food grains makes the need for about 450,000 tons of food aid urgent.
