Washington, DC — On the eve of a crucial presidential poll in Gambia Thursday, most analysts say that, assuming the election is free and fair, the outcome is too close to call.
While the president pulls large crowds, so does his main rival, coalition leader Ousainou Darboe. But with a rising tide of violence in the run-up to polling day, including the shooting dead of two opposition supporters by soldiers, it is already difficult to see how the contest could be described as fair.
Incumbent president Rtd. Colonel Yahya Jammeh, of the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), is facing a strong challenge from Lawyer Ousainou Darboe, candidate of the oppostion coalition combining the United Democratic Party (UDP), the People's Progressive Party (PPP) and the Gambia People's Party (GPP).
Voting conditions aside, the mere fact that it is difficult to say who commands the most support shows how dramatically Gambian politics has been transformed in recent years.
Throughout the thirty years reign of the PPP government of former president Sir Dawda Jawara until his ouster in July 1994, the incumbent was always assured of a landslide victory, not because there was no opposition, but because, thanks to a prevailing political culture, the great majority of Gambians were sure to vote for the incumbent.
That culture was built on the principle of divine kingship (embodied in the idea of the "Mansa" or absolute monarch) which led many people to believe that voting against the incumbent was voting against the will of God.
Living under President Jammeh during the past seven years has, however, dented confidence in the divine right of kings. The 1994 coup which toppled the PPP regime left many die-hard Jawara supporters permanently disaffected with Jammeh. But the subsequent spate of arrests, detentions, and sometimes shootings of government opponents and alleged coup-plotters have caused deep anger and provoked a desire for political change among Gambians.
When they get to the polling booth, voters will have a choice of five candidates to choose from. Apart from the APRC's President Jammeh and the three-party coalition's Lawyer Darboe, also standing are Sidia Jatta, a linguist and candidate for the People's Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS); Sherrif Mustapha Dibba, a former vice president and candidate for the National Convention Party (NCP); and Hamat Bah, candidate for the National Reconciliation Party (NRP).
All the parties boast of a significant support base at the grass roots although their representation in parliament shows the APRC as strongly dominant with over 20 MPs out of 36. Only the NCP has no representative in parliament. The PDOIS and NRP have one each, while the UDP has eight.
The UDP, the largest of the opposition parties, was formed in 1996, after the lifting of the ban on political party activities by the military ahead of a presidential poll in September of that year. Also formed at the time was the NRP, and Jammeh's APRC, after he decided to retire from the army and run for the presidency.
The other four parties, the PPP, NCP, GPP and PDOIS are all 'first republic' parties. They and their leaders (with the exception of the PDOIS which was never represented in the the Jawara administration) were indefinitely banned from engaging in political activity by military decree. It was only after intense national and international pressure that the Jammeh government decided to relent and repeal Decree 89 just two months ago.
The repeal of Decree 89 was immediately followed by the formation of the three-party opposition coalition. The initial intention was to form an all-opposition party coalition with a single candidate pitted against Jammeh. Such a coalition would probably have secured an easy victory over the incumbent. But due to policy disagreements among the opposition parties only three - the NCP, NRP and PDOIS - decided to work together. It is this fragmentation of the opposition that is widely regarded as the biggest obstacle to a coalition victory.
Yet, given the performance of the coalition in the campaign so far, observers in Banjul are not quite ready to put their money on Jammeh. Much depends on whether the election will ultimately be seen as a fair fight. There has been an unprecedented spate of violence in the run-up to the polls and there are fears that regardless of who emerges victorious, there is potential for a serious political crisis.
Many people believe that President Jammeh is determined to stay in power, whether or not he polls the greatest number of votes. Local observers say that if President Jammeh is declared the winner, the opposition is likely to cry foul, a development that could lead to serious public disturbances.
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A large number of international election observers are in the country to monitor the poll. Observer missions from the Commonwealth, the British parliament, Transparency International, and the United Nations are currently in Banjul. Also present on the ground are many foreign journalists from neighbouring West African countries and beyond. Two major international media groups are in the country to cover the polls - the BBC and the Associated Press. Many hope that, at the very least, they can hope for an objective account of the way the election is conducted.
Whatever the eventual announcement on Friday when results are expected, it is clear that The Gambia's political landscape has changed for good. With so little time to go, religious leaders and peace-loving Gambians are busy urging respect for the rules and praying for a peaceful poll, on a day that promises to be anything but peaceful.
