Washington, DC — As the United Nations Security Council debate intensifies on a resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, the three African nations on the Council find themselves in the glare of an unaccustomed spotlight.
The 15-member Council is split, with France leading a strong opposition to war that includes two other permanent council members - Russia and China, as well as non-members Germany and Syria. Passage of a resolution requires nine votes, and any single permanent member can cast a veto.
The African Council members - Angola, Cameroon and Guinea - make up half of a group of six officially undecided nations - which also includes Chile, Mexico and Pakistan. This group floated a proposal giving Iraq a 45-day deadline to disarm, but that idea was dismissed as a "nonstarter" by White House spokesperson Ari Fletcher.
A vote slated for Tuesday on a resolution introduced by the United States, Britain and Spain, supported by Bulgaria, was postponed as members worked on a compromise that would extend the deadline for disarmament. The delay has given both sides additional time to lobby for votes.
On Tuesday, President Bush telephoned several leaders in the undecided camp, including Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos - the second phone conversation between the two in less than a month. On Monday, Bush spoke with South African President Thabo Mbeki, a leading opponent of war with Iraq, as well as President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal and President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria. Bush has also spoken to President Paul Biya of Cameroon. Secretary of State Colin Powell hosted a luncheon in Washington for Francois Fall, the foreign minister of Guinea, the nation holding the Council presidency for the month of March.
U.S. lobbying began accelerating late last month, involving ranking officials from both the White House and State Department. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Walter Kansteiner made a whirlwind visit to the capitals of all three African council members, and the National Security advisor, Condoleezza Rice, talked by telephone with Senegal's Wade and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Rwanda's President Paul Kagame, who has criticized the French position, discussed the issue with President Bush and senior American officials during a visit to Washington earlier this month.
All three African governments could end up abstaining when the Council vote is taken. But administration officials profess to be making some headway in winning their support. "I think the current may be starting to flow our way," one senior official told allAfrica.com.
Sources suggest that Angola is thought to be leaning towards the U.S. stance and that Guinea may also decide to side with the United States. Cameroon is widely expected to line up with France or abstain.
"War is inevitable," Angolan Foreign Minister Joao Bernardo de Miranda told journalists after a 45-minute meeting with French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin in Luanda on Monday. "We're worried about the aftermath of war," he said. But he declined to state how Angola would vote.
Beyond the merits of the issue, the African governments have to weigh the costs of deciding one way or the other. All three nations are among the world's poorest and need assistance from both powers. A decade ago, countries backing the Gulf War were rewarded with cheap oil from Saudi Arabia. Yemen, which voted "no", lost US$70m in U.S. aid.
Speaking during a heated debate in the House of Commons Monday, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said diplomacy sometimes involves "robust discussions." Pointing to the French Foreign Minister's travels to Angola, Guinea and Cameroon, Straw said: "He's not just having [coffee] and a little conversation with those he is meeting. I suspect he is reminding them of their loyalty to Francophone Africa, and how that loyalty can be both proved and disproved."
France is Angola's second-largest trading partner and the second-largest donor of aid to Guinea. Washington is the largest donor of aid to both Guinea and Angola.
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The United States is also Angola's largest trading partner, because of oil, and Angola hopes to qualify for trade concessions provided under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Oil wealth disqualifies Angola from import duties waivers, unless, as happened with Namibia and Botswana last year, an exemption is granted by Congress.
One of the factors determining whether a nation is eligible to benefit from trade opportunities with the U.S. under Agoa is whether that country engages "in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests."
Meanwhile, negotiations over the UN draft resolution are continuing. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, the Guinean permanent representative to the United Nations, Mamady Traore, struck a hopeful note, suggesting that a reworked resolution acceptable to Council members might be found. "We are gong to see something new," he said, adding: "We will have to wait until the co-sponsors of the resolution come back to us with the new text they have made."
