Washington, DC — In the aftermath of Sunday's presidential election in Senegal, incumbent Abdoulaye Wade seems poised to remain in office, with early estimates indicating that he has obtained 55 percent of the vote.
Should these results be confirmed, "Gorgui" as the 81-year-old president is often called, will serve as president for another five years. He has already served seven – a 2001 constitutional amendment shortened the presidential term by two years.
The latest results give Wade a comfortable lead in most major cities, including the capital, Dakar. He is well ahead of the main challengers, Ousmane Tanor Dieng and former Prime Minister Idrissa "Idy" Seck.
Wade's camp views the results as a sign that voters approve of his big construction program, which includes the renovation of roads, schools, and university centers, in addition to his economic policies.
Have voters given him a mandate to continue with these policies?
Not likely, say critics who point to failed social policies, political scandals, and the deepening poverty that has forced hundreds of young people to migrate illegally to Spain.
Tanor Dieng's spokesman has dismissed Wade's claim of victory, arguing that results in his camp's possession suggest that a run-off is inevitable. Likewise, campaigners for Idy Seck noted numerous irregularities which, in their view, cast doubt on the legitimacy of Wade's claim. They pointed to press reports indicating that many polling stations across the country opened late, and that thousands of voters never received the registration cards that are required in order to cast a ballot.
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These allegations may signal an upcoming legal battle in which Wade's challengers will likely seek total or partial invalidation of the results garnered so far, which are being carefully cross-checked by the respective campaign headquarters.
Meanwhile, people across the country are paying careful attention to radio or television broadcasts, fearing social instability if the opposition refuses to accept Wade's win.
As the vote count continues, some in Senegal are looking to a possible reshuffling of the political chessboard, given that Moustapha Niasse, a long-time opposition figure, has announced his retirement from active politics.
Niasse is largely credited with Wade's 2000 victory: in the second round run-off, his supporters proved instrumental when they backed Wade, enabling him to defeat the then-incumbent Abdou Diouf. However, on Sunday Niasse surprisingly drew only five percent of votes cast – far fewer than analysts had predicted.
Another surprise came from the traditional left, represented by Abdoulaye Bathily of the "Jubbanti (straighten up) Senegal" coalition, and Landing Savané, a member of Wade's cabinet. Both attracted less support than expected, indicating that these politicians are facing the end of an era. Tanor Dieng may emerge as the next opposition flag-bearer, especially since there was an unexpected reconciliation between Idy Seck and Wade a few weeks before election day.
With the reconfiguration of Senegalese politics come hopes of a dream long cherished by campaigners for change - unity within the opposition.
