Sierra Leone's elections will decide the successor to President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, who is constitutionally required to step down after two five-year terms.
Kabbah was re-elected in 2002 following the euphoria that met the end of the country's bitter war.
Kabbah's chosen successor, Vice President Solomon Berewa, who has served as de facto leader in many ways since Kabbah anointed him in 2002, predicted in a recent interview with the Freetown newspaper, the Concord Times, that his ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), is going to win 75 percent of the vote.
A presidential candidate needs to win 55 percent of the vote to avoid a second round run-off. But analysts are not as confident as Berewa about his chances of avoiding this. "There is the possibility that we may have two rounds of voting," Carolyn Norris, the West Africa Project Director for International Crisis Group, told allAfrica.com in an interview, "but… with the late arrival of a third party, it is difficult to predict."
Some commentators are concerned at the prospect of violence, particularly in the south east, where the People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC), led by Charles Margai in a breakaway from the SLPP, stands to erode the ruling party's support.
In a recent opinion piece in The Independent newspaper in Freetown, Abdulai Bayraytay wrote: "The recent spate of violence in particularly the south-eastern parts of the country are sending worrying signals to the electorate that the essence of democracy through the ballot box seems to be potentially undermined."
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The Sierra Leonean military, however, has declared the country secure for the election. "The security situation is relatively calm and peaceful and we look forward to an election that is peaceful, credible and violence-free," army spokesperson Brigadier-General Arthur Nelson-Williams told Agence France Presse last week.
The chairperson of the National Election Council, Christiana Thorpe, has reported that 91 percent of the estimated voting population has registered. Observers are worried about low turnout though because the election takes place during the height of the Sierra Leonean rainy season.
The National Electoral Commission has also gained the confidence of many. Margai, however, in a July Crisis Group report on Sierra Leone accused the SLPP of wanting to rig the elections, and he threatened that while he "hoped to avoid violence, any attempt by the governing party to interfere will not be acceptable or tolerated." Margai claims support from many ex-combatants from the civil war.
In the parliamentary elections, Sierra Leoneans will elect members using a constituency-based system. In 2002 a proportional representation system was used.
Many observers predict this will change the makeup of parliament. Nemata Eshun-Baiden, co-founder of the 50/50 Group - a non-governmental organization that aims to increase the political participation of women in Sierra Leone - told Inter Press Service last month that the change could make it more difficult for women to win seats.
