"A military intervention aimed at regime change in Niger is costly and infeasible and would lead to catastrophically counterproductive consequences for West Africa."
A Nigerian government think tank, Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE), has described the plan to intervene militarily in Niger as costly and infeasible.
"A military intervention aimed at regime change in Niger is costly and infeasible and would lead to catastrophically counterproductive consequences for West Africa," it said in a 12-page document seen by PREMIUM TIMES.
OSPRE, Nigeria's national centre for the coordination of early warning and response, added that a non-military approach should be prioritised.
It said ECOWAS should not only suspend the military option but also prohibit any military intervention in Niger by foreign forces as that will likely turn the country into a vortex of instability in the region.
OSPRE advised that potential approaches should be in Nigeria's national interest and consistent with the overall security and stability of the subregion.
It said Nigeria as the current head of ECOWAS must consider three major points while making its decisions, including the possible withdrawal of Niger from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).
"Any armed hostile action against the regime could provoke it into withdrawing from the MNJTF thereby collapsing a crucial component of the regional coalition against the insurgents and immediately resulting in a reversal of the gains of the counterinsurgency campaign," the think tank explained.
Also, the stability of Niger and the state of Nigerian refugees in Niger should inform the actions of the bloc, OSPRE advised, adding that a stable Niger, among other things, acts as a crucial buffer between Nigeria and the chaos of Libya.
"Precipitate military action against the new regime will most certainly destabilise Niger and by extension the greater Sahel," it warned.
Possible effects of a military intervention
Because Nigeria is expected to supply the bulk of the foot soldiers needed for an intervention, OSPRE warns that this will lead to the stretching of the already stretched Nigerian military to a breaking point.
The Nigerian military is currently deployed on internal security operations in at least 32 states of the federation and is confronting insurgencies in the north-east, north-west and south-east.
"Any external commitment on the scale required to approach even a remotely feasible military operation would significantly weaken a heavily militarized internal security architecture and create vacuums that would be exploited by hostile non-state actors," it said.
Nigeria also risks positioning itself as a proxy of France and the West. This may reinforce the perceived dichotomy between Anglophone West Africa and Francophone West Africa, it said.
Given the increasing anti-French sentiments within Francophone West Africa, the Nigerian/ECOWAS military risks being seen as an occupation force rather than as liberators.
This may also see the disintegration of ECOWAS. Signs are already visible especially with Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso openly declaring their support for Niger and also being absent from the meeting of chiefs of defence staff of ECOWAS.
"In the event of a military intervention, ECOWAS would merely be providing these regimes with the compelling justification for retreating even further from democracy," it added.
Way Forward
OSPRE insists that military intervention in Niger would be a costly strategic misadventure that will destabilise the region and unravel ECOWAS. Therefore, non-military options are required to address the situation.
It commended ECOWAS for engaging diplomatically, advising that engagements should focus on two objectives including securing the release of President Mohamed Bazoum.
"The first priority should be to secure the release of President Bazoum and grant him and his family asylum in West Africa," it said.
Secondly, negotiating a transition timetable for the exit of the new regime and a return to democratic governance.
Additionally, contingency plans should be made not only for the evacuation of Nigerians from Niger but also from other francophone countries where they may be at risk.
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Apart from OSPRE, many other Nigerians, groups and organisations have also warned against military intervention in Niger.
PREMIUM TIMES reported how the Nigerian Senate Saturday opposed military intervention in Niger.
Also, the JNI, an association of Islamic organisations in Nigeria, in a statement Saturday also opposed military intervention."We wish to raise a word of caution against the pursuit of military action as a means to restore democracy. The interlaced landscape of the northern states of Nigeria and the Republic of Niger necessitates a more circumspect and thoughtful action and/or approach.
"With several Nigerian states sharing borders with Niger Republic, military intervention could have unintended consequences that may impact the peace and stability of both nations," JNI stated.
The head of the JNI and Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Abubakar, was a member of the three-person delegation sent by ECOWAS to Niger last week to convince the putschists to allow a return to democratic governance. The delegation was, however, not able to convince the coup plotters to either release President Bazoum or allow a return to democracy.
