Amid rising costs of living and low public confidence in the government, widespread grievances are fuelling discontent among many Nigerians.
A protest billed to take place nationwide against economic hardship in Nigeria begins tomorrow (Thursday).
The government has tried to shoot down the plan, but the organisers have vowed to ensure the protest is held.
Amid rising costs of living and low public confidence in the government, widespread grievances are fuelling discontent among many Nigerians. Many displeased citizens say they have chosen to protest as their way of calling for an "end to bad governance".
The protest comes after similar actions in Kenya and Bangladesh, where citizens recently protested violently against their jobs and governments' economy-related policies.
More than 50 persons died, hundreds were injured, and public and private properties were destroyed in the protests that went on for weeks in Kenya.
In Bangladesh, weeks of protest over a job quota system have left more than 200 people dead as students take to the streets to protest.
The recent foreign developments have revived memories of the violent outcomes of the 2020 #EndSARS protest as organisers intensify plans for another demonstration in Nigeria. This has sparked significant security and safety concerns among many Nigerians regarding the upcoming protest.
The organisers maintain that they have the right to peaceful protest, placing the responsibility for ensuring peace during the demonstrations on the government.
The prospect of the eruption of violence has dominated the narratives of both the proponents of the protest and its opponents - chief among whom are President Bola Tinubu and his top aides.
Below are how the opposing sides have stepped up their campaigns, disagreeing on how peaceful the protest can be.
Government mixed bag of countermoves
Governments worldwide are conscious of the damaging political effect of public protests against their policies, style of governance and handling of the economy. They also have a legitimate responsibility to be worried about potentially volatile mass action.
A thin line separates the two forms of concern when considering the motivations that drive governments' reactions to protests.
The Nigerian government has said it is against the protest due to the likelihood of it being hijacked by criminals and leading to killings and destruction of violence, like the recent development in Kenya and the EndSARS protest.
The President Tinubu administration is doing all it can to prevent the protests from even starting.
The protest has been a major talking point in the president's publicly known meetings in the presidential villa in the past week, underscoring how seriously his administration takes the matter.
Mr Tinubu has met with state governors, heads of security agencies, and religious and traditional leaders to discuss the protest. After the meetings, the president's visitors called for calm, asking citizens to exercise patience while expressing worry about the possible turns the protests could take.
"Nobody that will not be worried about the protest," the Emir of Zazzau, Ahmed Bamalli, said after one of such meetings. "...we are calling on our people to exercise patience and to listen to the words of wisdom."
The Ooni of Ife, Enitan Ogunwusi, said the traditional rulers were not against the protests but wanted it to be civil.
On his part, the Dein of Agbor, Benjamin Keagborekuzi, said that though he understood the grievances of Nigerians, he believed the government was making the right decisions and citizens needed to be patient.
The Minister of Education, Tahir Mamman, also met with the leadership of the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), asking them not to participate in the protests. The NANS leadership and other student groups later said they would not be part of the protests.
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) has rejected the calls for the 10-day protests, saying it was alarmed by the goal of the protests.The spokesperson for the group, Tukur Mohammed-Baba, a professor, said: "What is discernible from the justification and demands from the promoters of the protests are largely incoherent and poorly articulated with their likelihood of success very doubtful."
The pan-Yoruba socio-cultural and socio-political organisation Afenifere has also said it does not support the planned protests, asking organisers to opt for dialogue.
Also, the pan-Igbo socio-cultural and socio-political organisation, Ohaneze Ndigbo, has asked Igbo youths nationwide to avoid the planned protest.
From subtle threats to persuasion
Meanwhile, the security agencies have used both intimidation and persuasion as a strategy to quell the protests, but none appears to have worked.
The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) warned protesters against "anarchy" in the guise of a nationwide protest.
Speaking during a press conference on Thursday, Edward Buba, director of defence media operations, said the context of the planned protest was to "shadow what happened in Kenya".
In the North, where the plan seems to be gaining traction, the police arrested at least seven promoters of the protests. But public outrage forced the police to release them.
In one of his earliest comments about the protests, the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, asked the protesters to shelve the protest, saying it was ill-advised.
"We have the responsibility to protect properties and everyone, irrespective of their race, colour, ethnicity, or tribe, who are lawfully embarking on their daily activities. We will, therefore, not sit back and fold our arms to watch violent activities unleashed on our peaceful communities or destroy any of our national critical infrastructure and assets again," Mr Egbetokun was quoted as saying.Later, the IGP asked protest leaders to submit their details to the commissioners of police in their respective states. But many Nigerians immediately reject the idea.
As tension grows, subtle threats from the police have morphed into persuasion.
On Saturday, the police chief met with the commandants of the police mobile force.
According to one of the commandants in attendance, the meeting was in connection with the protest.
Mainly, the mobile police are used to quench riots, and their involvement in this matter could escalate fears that they could harm the protesters.
On Tuesday, the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, met with human rights leaders in the country, including Femi Falana and Ebun Adegboruwa, both Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SANs) and human rights lawyer Inibehe Effiong.
According to the attendees of the meeting, Mr Egbetokun appealed that protesters restrict themselves to specific locations.
Not backing down
However, the protesters are not backing down. They insist that protest is a constitutional right. They have also vowed not to leave the streets until the demands are met.
Some notable commentators like Femi Falana, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, have blamed the violence that erupted during the #EndSARS protest on government-sponsored counter-protests.
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He said the government should intensify its efforts to meet the protesters' demands instead of trying to stop the protest.
The Ayo Adebanjo-led faction of Afenifere has also thrown its weight behind the protest.
The 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, has also lent his voice in support of the protest. His supporters, styled as 'Obidients', have been vocal in rallying support for the protest online.
The protest has also received surprising support from the sections of the ordinarily conservative North of the country. Increasingly, young Nigerians from the region have questioned the long-standing stance of the widely respected Islamic scholars who campaign against physical protests as 'un-islamic' conduct.
Some protest supporters are also taking steps to minimise risk factors for violence.
They have requested the authorities of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, to allow them to use the Eagle's Square in Abuja to ensure peace and order during the protest.
Some protest backers have taken to social media to appeal to people not to block the roads and not destroy properties as part of efforts to ensure a peaceful protest.
Protest
The planned protest is scheduled for 10 days - from 1 to 10 August.
But the litany of demands is as diverse as the groups behind them.
For instance, while some fliers shared by Nigerians demanded a reverse of petrol price to N300 per litre, others asked that it be returned to N100.
The tag for the protest is also not uniform.
The 'Take It Back Movement' led by a former presidential candidate of the Action Democratic Congress (ADC) and long-time activist, Omoyele Sowore, tagged the protest 'Days of Rage'. Others on social media tagged the protest #EndBadGovernance.
