The Djibouti regime is facing increasing challenges, with economic pressures mounting and a growing sense of insecurity taking hold.

The rise of Berbera port in Somaliland as a significant competitor has highlighted the vulnerabilities in Djibouti's economic model, which has heavily relied on its port sector and Ethiopian trade.

Djibouti's external public debt has surged from 33.9 percent of GDP in 2013 to 68 percent in 2022, driven largely by loan-financed investments in state-owned enterprises, including the port and railway sectors.

The World Bank has expressed concerns about the sustainability of this approach, particularly as Berbera Port emerges as a formidable competitor.

Rather than adapting to this new competitive landscape, Djibouti appears to be taking a more confrontational path.

The country has opposed the Memorandum of Understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia, signed a military pact with Turkey, and allegedly recruited militias to destabilise Somaliland.

Reports from within Djibouti suggest that the regime may even be planning false flag operations to justify military action against western Somaliland.

Somaliland, for its part, has shown restraint in the face of these provocations but remains resolute in its commitment to defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The people of Somaliland are prepared to resist any aggression with determination.

Djibouti's leadership would be wise to reconsider its approach and pursue diplomatic solutions to its economic and security issues. The international community also has a role to play in preventing regional instability and supporting Somaliland's right to economic independence.

Badri Jimale is a follower of Horn of Africa affairs and an advocate for pragmatic solutions.