The IS which has lost ground in most parts of the world seems to search for a safe haven in the Horn of Africa searching for a niche in Somalia. On yet another development, the Federal Government of Somalia has invited foreign forces into the country as part of the agreement to support Somalia against possible war with Ethiopia under the guise of peace keeping.
In a country where Al- Shabab and Al-Qaida are controlling quite a larger territory of the nation, it is no surprise that global terrorist groups and hegemonic forces are now focusing on Somalia. The entry of Egyptian hegemonic forces in Somalia based on Somalia's a smokescreen of attack on her sovereignty by Ethiopia has grown to the extent that Al-Shabab has managed to attack targets in Mogadishu. Global terrorist forces are now clustering on the Horn exploiting the situation from weak governance and insecurity in Somalia.
Apart from the traditional powers that are competing for controlling the Red Sea route and outlet to the Indian Ocean, a consortium of terrorist forces and hegemonic and destabilizing pentagonal alliances who are in an alliance on the Horn are joining the conspiracy of chocking Ethiopia who has been managing the peace and stability of 60% of Somali territory and attempting to block her right to have access to the sea. The expansion of terrorism on the Horn is indeed an offshoot of terrorist expansion in the rest of the continent.
Various researches and data from several sources that document and report incidents of terrorist attacks and entrenchments across Arica including Global Terrorism Index 2022, shows at least three key trends in Africa. The first trend is the increasing surge in the incidents of terrorist attacks over the years. The second trend involves the equally troubling rise in fatalities from attacks. From a human security perspective, it is worth noting that much of the burden of the attacks and the fatalities is borne by civilians. The most recent figures show that these two trends are particularly true in the Sahel and the Central Africa regions. The third trend relates to the geographic expansion of the threat of terrorism on the continent. There is no longer a region of the continent free from the activities of groups identified as terrorists. This geographic expansion continues as more and more territories face the risk of becoming theatre of terrorist operations.
According to the 2022 Global Terrorism Index published in March 2022, five of the ten countries most affected by terrorism are from Africa. All except Somalia are from the Sahel/Lake Chad Basin region. Six of the eight countries in the Sahel are amongst the 10 most impacted countries for terrorism in Africa. Of these, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are the ones experiencing fast growing burden of terrorism in Africa today. According to the index, out of 20 countries most affected by terrorism in the world, eleven are also from Africa including the Horn.
The terrorist threat in Africa has been shaped by activities in two regions and led by two terrorist organizations, both affiliated to Al Qaeda, namely Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North and West Africa, and Al-Shabaab in East Africa.'13 Boko Haram, while active in northeast Nigeria, was far from its later day infamy as the most lethal terrorist group in Africa. Over the past seven years, the geography of terrorism in Africa has completely changed.
Terrorism in the Horn of Africa is a major concern for regional security due to its geopolitical significance and ongoing conflicts. The Horn of Africa, which includes countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and parts of Sudan, has been a hotspot for extremist activities and terror networks, including groups like Al-Shabaab and Islamic State affiliate.
Weak and unstable governments as well as ethnic and religious conflicts and fragile state structures and lack of good governance create environments where extremist groups can flourish. Somalia's decades-long conflict has made it a center of terrorism, with Al-Shabaab controlling large areas.
The region's borders are often poorly monitored, allowing militants and arms to move freely between countries like Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, increasing the spread of terrorism.
Various foreign military bases and interventions, including those by the United States and other countries, have been established to counter terrorism, particularly targeting Al-Shabaab. However, this foreign presence also contributes to local anti-Western sentiments that extremist groups exploited which led to the mitosis of new terrorist groups
High unemployment, poverty, and lack of education in many Horn of Africa countries leave young people vulnerable to recruitment by terrorist organizations. Who give them false promises of employments overseas?
The region is rife with inter-clan and ethnic conflicts, which are often manipulated by terrorist groups to gain influence, especially in areas where governments have limited control.
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A Somali-based militant group that has been responsible for major terror attacks in Somalia and Kenya. Al-Shabab has strong ties to Al-Qaeda and controls significant parts of Somalia.
Though less influential than Al-Shabaab, there are factions of the Islamic State that operate in parts of Somalia, competing for influence in the region.
A regional peacekeeping mission aimed at stabilizing Somalia and countering Al-Shabaab's influence. The U.S. conducts airstrikes and supports local governments and regional forces in combating terror groups.
Countries like Ethiopia have actively engaged in counter-terrorism operations to prevent the spillover of extremist activities from Somalia. Terrorism in the Horn of Africa poses a significant threat to regional stability, economic development, and peace efforts. Collaborative regional and international efforts are critical for combating this menace.
Editor's Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
