Although there are benefits for both countries, the US is clearly challenging the dominance of China and Russia in Southern Africa.
With just a few months left in his presidency, United States (US) President Joe Biden chose to visit Angola from 13-15 October. The trip was postponed after Hurricane Milton struck Florida's west coast this week, and a new date hasn't been set.
This would have been Biden's only visit to Africa during his presidency, the first by a United States (US) president to Angola, and the first presidential visit to Africa since Barack Obama in 2015. Unlike typical African tours encompassing several countries, why the focus on Angola?
In March, Angolan President João Lourenço's state visit to China elevated the two countries' relations to a 'comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.' Alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visits to Angola in 2018 and 2023, these meetings signal a changing geopolitical landscape that the US is eager to re-enter. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's January visit and Biden's planned trip marked important high-level engagements.
Despite Angola's historical connections with Russia, including Soviet support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola during its civil war, and strong economic ties with China, recent actions suggest a shift. Angola's United Nations abstention on the Russia-Ukraine War and subsequent vote against Russia reflect a growing foreign policy agency and potential alignment with US efforts to counter Russian influence.
Economically, the focus of Biden's visit was the multibillion-dollar Lobito Corridor project. The venture aims to rehabilitate a 1 300 km railway connecting the mineral-rich Central African Copperbelt - spanning Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) - to Angola's Lobito port.
In December 2023, Biden referred to the Lobito Corridor as the 'biggest US rail investment in Africa ever,' with estimated costs ranging from US$1-2 billion. The project could significantly enhance the region's ability to meet rising global demands for critical resources, particularly copper and cobalt, driven by the semiconductor industry and the growing artificial intelligence sector.
Biden's announcement followed US Vice-President Kamala Harris' March 2023 visit to Zambia, the starting point of the Lobito Corridor, highlighting the increasing attention these often-overlooked countries are receiving.
While the corridor promises long-term economic benefits, its immediate impact on the livelihoods of ordinary Angolans - one out of three of whom live in severe poverty - is uncertain. Florindo Chivucute, Executive Director of Friends of Angola, told ISS Today there is hope that the corridor will create more jobs, but 'time will tell.'
Security considerations have also elevated US-Angola relations. The withdrawal of two US military bases in Niger coincides with a growing presence in the Sahel of Russia's Africa Corps and concerns about China's Global Security Initiative. General Michael Langley of US Africa Command has stressed the need for partnerships to 'ensure strategic access' and counter disinformation campaigns from rivals like Russia.
In 2020, Russia and China were the largest arms suppliers to Angola. Against this backdrop, visits from Langley to Angola in November 2022 and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in September 2023 indicate that Angola is an emerging US security ally on the continent. The US' shift to southern and eastern African partners aligns with recent engagements in Kenya, which was elevated to major non-NATO ally status.
Although starting from a low base, the US is increasing military assistance to Angola. From 2020-23, military aid obligations exceeded US$21 million, although only US$4.28 million was disbursed in that time period. Support for military training, maritime security, humanitarian demining, peacekeeping and cybersecurity capacity is also expected to grow, particularly as Angola's role in eastern DRC expands.
China's ongoing regional influence is also a factor in growing US-Angola ties. An agreement to rehabilitate the Tanzania Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) was signed at the September 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). China completed the 1 800 km TAZARA railway 48 years ago, linking Zambia to Dar es Salaam's port (see map).
Shortly after FOCAC, Blinken countered with the announcement that Tanzania had joined discussions on the Lobito Corridor. How an overlap between US efforts and TAZARA will be avoided is uncertain, underscoring the rivalry between the two powers.
Although Angola is the fourth largest African exporter of crude oil to the US, only 1.9% of its crude goes to the US, while 54% is exported to China. China's influence remains significant, including its stake in one of the Lobito Corridor firms, Mota-Engil. Nevertheless, Angola's energy and mineral resources are crucial to the US, as underscored by Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt's participation in the June US-Angola Energy Security Dialogue.
The Lobito Corridor is part of the US' Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, viewed as a direct response to China's Belt and Road Initiative. The corridor and TAZARA's rehabilitation are a means to connect Africa from east to west, but they also reflect competition between the US and China for influence and access to Africa's mineral wealth.
Angola's increasing engagement with the US reflects Lourenço's goal to diversify international partnerships, especially considering the country's significant debt to China. However, this diversification is primarily driven by economics and may not be a genuine commitment to combat corruption or promote democracy, says Chivucute. He cites growing concerns over legislation limiting democratic space, like the Vandalism Bill.
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Regionally, the US has supported Angola's emergence as a key African player, particularly as the leader of the Luanda process to address tensions between Rwanda and the DRC.
Biden's planned visit signifies a strategic advancement of US-Angola relations, offering substantial benefits for both countries. However, the US is clearly pursuing major geopolitical interests aimed at challenging Chinese and Russian dominance in Southern Africa.
While the economic prospects for Angolans seem promising, there is concern that the US shouldn't compromise its advocacy for Angolan civil liberties and human rights in its bid to outcompete China.
Lourenço has an opportunity to leverage these competing powers' interests to benefit Angola. Biden's visit allows the country to elevate its international profile and assert its priorities, marking a significant departure from the more subdued foreign policy of former president José dos Santos.
Zenge Simakoloyi, Research Intern, Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS
Piers Pigou, Head, Southern Africa Programme, ISS
Borges Nhamirre, Consultant, ISS Pretoria
