Nairobi — As the consideration on the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua draws near, the likelihood of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi become the next Deputy President is getting slimmer.
The Deputy President is currently battling an impeachment motion, with the Senate set to vote on Thursday with sources claiming that it's a lost battle for him with the message from the President on the new appointee expected on Friday morning in a special sitting.
Gachagua's successor race was taunted to be a two-horse race between Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki and Mudavadi but the 2027 political arithmetic is said to have dwindled his chances.
A political binding pact between the affiliate parties in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance regime is said to have scuttled the chances of Mudavadi ascending to the second most powerful slot in government.
Details revealed in the power sharing agreement between United Democratic Alliance, Amani National Congress and Ford Kenya showed Mudavadi's share in the political pact was the Prime Cabinet Secretary slot which has already been cut out to him.
In the power sharing agreement, which was signed on 5th April 2022, ANC and Ford Kenya would have a 30 percent share of the national government position including Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries, ambassadors among other high-level position in government.
"ANC would be allocated the position of the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Ford Kenya would be allocated the Speaker of the National Assembly to be established within 14 days of the Kenya Kwanza coming to power," the pact deposited at the Registrar of Political Parties reads.
The current scenario of Ford Kenya Party leader Moses Wetangula being the Speaker of the National Assembly who is deemed as the third in command is said to have dented the chances of Mudavadi clinching the slot.
Close allies of President William Ruto argue it would be politically detrimental for the two most powerful slots in government to be domained in the western region cognizant of the political capital in the region.
Already, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance leader has dished out several influential slots in government to the western region in the government in adherence to the shareholding agreement.
Some of the individuals who landed jobs in government following the political agreement include Health Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa and Director of Public Prosecution Renson Ingonga among others.
Sources intimate that despite the ongoing disgruntlement of Gachagua's impeachment without the intervention of the President, he is keen not to lose the whole Mount Kenya region which will be critical to propel his presidential candidature in the 2027 polls.
"The delicate balance of protecting the vote rich Mt Kenya region we have all agreed that we preserve that particular slot to Professor Kindiki,"
"As an experienced politician instead of letting the whole mountain mourn for a long period of time, Kindiki stands a better chance consolidating our support in the region," opined Kiminini MP Didmus Barasa.
In the last gazetted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission notice, data reveal that Mt Kenya currently has 5.9 million voters. Of these, Mt Kenya West accounts for 4.6 million voters, while Mt Kenya East has 1.3 million.
The Kiminini MP insisted that the Interior Cabinet Secretary has a capability to unite the region in the Deputy President slot citing his outstanding track record in the docket as well as non-tribal approach in politics.
"From a political point of view, we can debate whether in the future in 2027 we will lose a percentage of our support base in the Mt Kenya West. Its something that's a possibility, the thing about Kindiki is that he is an individual unless you are told, you will never know the tribe he comes from," Barasa stated.
Weak political muscle
Pundits have previously argued that Mudavadi is a political light weight and has occasionally failed to show his political muscle when it mattered since his entry in politics during the Moi era.
Critics claims that Mudavadi who joined politics at 29 years of age as an MP in Sabatia following the demise of his father Moses Mudavadi say despite his long stay in politics he has never displayed his real political muscle.
He has previously served in cabinet for 18 years including portfolios at Agriculture, Finance, Transport, Information and Broadcasting as well as Local Government in addition to serving as Vice-President.
His close ally COTU Secretary General Francis Atwoli has accused Mudavadi of being a let down to the Luhya community when he served powerful positions in government.
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Odinga's stake
President Ruto closing ranks with Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Leader Raila Odinga is said to have further slimmed his chances of taking up the slot by cheapening his bargaining power in the luyha politics.
The thinly veiled partnership between the two powerful politicians led to the luyha community take up a slot in the cabinet following the appointment of Wycliffe Oparanya, Odinga's close ally, in cabinet as Trade and Cooperative Cabinet Secretary.
Western Kenya has always remained a high price competition space. Odinga has always been taunted as the dominant in the control of the region while Mudavadi and Wetang'ula attempting to ring fence it the region.
The Luhya region is a vote rich region with the last gazzeted voter list by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) showing Kakamega had 804,735 voters, Vihiga 305,974, Busia 410,676 and Bungoma 644,366.
Western region has in the last four election supported Odinga's presidential bid with pundits arguing he still has control of the region which will help scale up Ruto's bid in 2027 general election.
