The Confederation of African Football on Saturday, October 26, declared Libya losers of their 2025 AFCON qualifier against Nigeria on forfeit grounds.
The forfeit is one of the sanctions that the Libyans were slapped after CAF disciplinary board found them guilty of mistreating the Super Eagles upon arrival at Al Abraq Airport where they were kept stranded for more than 12 hours.
Captain William Troost-Ekong and the rest of the Super Eagles returned home without playing the match which was due on October 15 in Benghazi, and had since lodged a complaint to CAF to look into the matter.
The CAF Disciplinary Board, as a result, awarded 3 points and three goals to Nigeria and, on top of the forfeit, handed Libya a $50,000 fine.
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The new development can go a long way have an impact on teams' qualification chances in the group.
Nigeria were in pole position to qualify even before CAF ruled the decision in their favor. They were leading the group with 7 points from three games played, having won twice and drawn once.
And, with the forfeit against Libya, they now have 10 points and need a minimum of 2 points from their remaining two games to cement their qualification.
Nigeria will face neighbors Benin in Abidjan on November 14, before wrapping up with a home game against Rwanda on November 18.
The Group looks very dicey. No matter what, Nigeria are home and dry to qualify. The remaining ticket will be up for grabs and Benin, now second with 6 points, Rwanda, who are third with 5 points and bottom-placed Libya (1 point) still have a hand on it.
Mathematically, Libya isn't out yet. A win in their remaining two games coupled with Benin and Rwanda losing their two games means can secure them a qualification.
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Notwithstanding, that looks impossible though football defies logic. It will surely be a race between Rwanda and Benin. All the teams in the Group will also need a favor from each other.
Amavubi must now beat Libya in Kigali at all cost and pray Nigeria does them a big favor and defeat Benin. That win for the Super Eagles will also be for their own good as they will automatically qualify for the 2025 AFCON while Rwanda can leapfrog Benin to 2nd place with 8 points.
Libya, who will have nothing at stake will host Benin in Benghazi. They can still play for pride or better still beat Benin to improve their FIFA ranking.
In any case, Benin themselves are poor away from home. They last won an away game on March 27, 2022 against Zambia in a friendly match and it seems unlikely they can beat Libya.
If Benin lose their final game against Libya per the analysis, even a defeat for Amavubi in Uyo wouldn't spoil Rwanda's historic qualification to the AFCON after 20 years. Nigeria has been poor at home against less fancied teams. The likes of Lesotho, Sierra Leone are among underdogs which have all previously picked points against them in their own ground and Rwanda could follow suit.
Now, the immediate games are more important. Rwanda must beat Libya and let Nigeria handle Benin. If this happens, Amavubi's chances will increase going into the last and decisive fixtures on November 18.
