·Speak on other indirect adverse effects on Nigeria
On Wednesday, April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump finally imposed a 14% tariff on Nigeria export trades. However, Bloomwiz, a business, financial, international news blog site, said: "Shocking, Nigeria has a 27% tariff on U.S. goods."
In his opinion, media practitioner, Ehichioya Ezomon said, "Nigeria may also be affected by VAT tariff" going by President Trump's statement: 'For purposes of this United States policy, we will consider countries that use the VAT system, which is far more punitive than a tariff, to be similar to that of a tariff.
'Sending merchandise, product, or anything by any other name through another country, for purposes of unfairly harming America, will not be accepted."
'We are able to accurately determine the cost of these non monetary trade barriers. It is fair to all, no other country can complain and, in some cases, if a country feels that the United States would be getting too high a tariff, all they have to do is reduce or terminate their tariff against us.
'There are no tariffs if you manufacture or build your product in the United States."'
Ezomon said given Nigeria's reliance on VAT as source of revenue, the Nigerian economy may take a hit for the worse.
To get more perspectives on the impacts the Trump tariff may have on Nigeria, Sunday Vanguard spoke to economists:
Shocks may be very limited but... --Yusuf, CEO of CPPE
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, said,"The vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to shocks of the current trade war unleashed by President Trump may be very limited.
"Averagely, Nigeria's external trade exposure to the United States is about 10%.
"In 2024, Nigeria's total merchandise export was valued at $50.4 billion and Nigeria export to the United States the same year was $5.7 billion, which was 11.3%.
"Nigeria's major exports to the US are crude oil, petroleum gas, and nitrogenous fertilizer while major US exports to Nigeria are mainly vehicles, wheat, and fuels.
"Other major export destinations for Nigeria products are Spain, France, Netherlands, and Italy.
"Oil and gas products account for close to 90% of Nigeria's exports. This has been the position for about three decades.
"However, the Nigeria economy may be affected indirectly in some other ways. "The Trump administration has practically brought closure to the AGOA trade window.
"Secondly, the trade war and the subsequent retaliatory tariffs would trigger inflationary pressures in the United States.
"This may result in elevated costs for imports into Nigeria from the United States.
"Thirdly, we are likely to witness some level of disruptions in global supply chains resulting from the tariff war.
"This could dampen the global growth outlook and affect crude oil price.
"A decline in oil price would impact Nigeria's foreign reserves and revenue.
"The worsening inflation outlook for the US economy may trigger monetary tightening by the US Federal reserve. "This may lead to higher interest rates and trigger portfolio flow reversals in emerging economies.
"This could have implications for the naira exchange rate.
"But there are also opportunities for new trade partners globally.
"Many countries that are victims of the current trade war would seek new bilateral trade relationships which may create opportunities for Nigeria investors".
Premier role of state in economic mgt crucial -- Onyekpere, Lead Director, CSJ
Eze Onyekpere, Lead Director, Centre for Social Justice, CSJ, on his part, said, "The new tariffs should be a wake-up call for Nigeria and indeed the whole of Africa".
Onyekpere, who is also a lawyer with specialization in development law, went on: "Trump's 'Make America Great Again' slogan rubbishes the empty received knowledge of the wonders of the market economy.
"Even though it violates World Trade Organisation's rules, it is an affirmation of the premier role of the state in economic management.
"This development clearly demonstrates the lack of patriotism in the Nigerian authorities who have been fighting Dangote Refinery, refusing to make available crude petroleum and even de-marketing the refined products.
"Can these authorities think of Nigerians first?
"The Trump tariff order is a call on Nigeria to look inwards, stop unnecessary imports, build a circular and concentric economy around Nigerians in Nigeria and in the Diaspora. "Public procurement provides a great starting point.
"By implementing a Nigeria first policy, our economy can begin to grow consistently by not less than eight percent per annum".
Trump Tariffs may mark end to AGOA -- Yahaya, Chairman, Arewa Economic Forum
Alhaji Ibrahim Yahaya, Chairman of Arewa Economic Forum, also speaking, said: "These measures will in the interim affect world trade balance and most probably cause an increase in inflation in the short term.
"But it's pertinent to note that the USA isn't putting tariffs on raw materials it imports and other essential items they need for their industries, rather they're focused on manufactured goods that were hitherto manufactured in the USA now manufactured elsewhere because of cost of production reasons".
Yahaya, who's also the National Secretary, Petroleum Dealers Association of Nigeria, added, "In essence, USA is trying to lure back production home, but they seem to forget that they are behind in infrastructure and competitiveness in those key areas.
"Therefore there is a need for the USA to invest a lot in infrastructure and labour laws to meet up to be competitive.
"In the long term, Nigeria and those other countries hit by these tariffs will be forced to seek out new trade partners (USA is still the world's largest economy by size and consumption) which can broaden the world trade and may even give rise to countries using convertibility of mutual currencies in trade which may lower the dependency on the dollar and improve global trade balances.
"The overall effect of these policies may be a gamble for the USA, which they may win, but a good measure for global trade change and growth.
"Our trade with the USA isn't very significant to us and to them hence the low tariff placed on us but these tariffs essentially means a systematic end to African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)".
Nigeria will explore new trade partners, reduce reliance on U.S.-- Okorowu, Agropreneur
Martin Okorowu, Agroprenuer and Data Analyst said, "Trump's new trade policy, which imposes tariffs in response to other countries' policies, could have mixed effects on Nigeria.
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"On one hand, it may encourage Nigeria to explore new trade partners and reduce reliance on the U.S.
"However, in the short term, it could mean fewer exports, pressure on foreign exchange, and potential economic strain.
"To navigate this, the Nigerian government will need to take smart steps to support businesses and keep the economy stable".
Global supply chains will be disrupted -- Ologun, Advertising and Marketing Entrepreneur
In his submission, titled, 'Why Should Nigerians Care?', Cyrus Ologun, Advertising and Marketing Entrepreneur, said, "Even if you don't trade directly with the U.S., Trump's tariffs will increase global prices, strengthen the dollar, and weaken the Naira.
"Here's how it affects you: Increased Cost of Goods: Nigeria imports most of its goods, including electronics, cars, machinery, raw materials, and even food items.
"If Trump's tariffs make global trade expensive, the cost of these goods will go up in Nigeria. Even items not coming directly from the U.S. will be affected because global supply chains will be disrupted.
"Naira Will Weaken Further: If the tariffs slow down global trade, investors will rush to hold dollars (a safe currency). "This increases demand for the US dollar, making the Naira weaker. The exchange rate could hit new record highs, making it harder for businesses to buy foreign goods.
"FX & Crypto Impact: If the Naira weakens, more Nigerians will look for ways to protect their money in stable assets like USD, crypto, or gold. US dollar demand will rise, leading to even higher black-market exchange rates".
