The upcoming G20 meeting in Johannesburg will be without the US government, and only a lower-level rep from Russia, but with the second-highest Chinese leader, although not Xi Jinping. While the middle powers at the meeting may hope they will share the collective heft and will to guide the proceedings, the meeting will represent a win for China.

The United States is effectively boycotting this year's G20 (along with Argentine President Javier Milei's announced boycott in support of Donald Trump). This is based on the American president being in a snit over the South African government's alleged domestic policies, as well as Trump's objections to the official objectives of this year's meeting.

Russia's representative will be a relatively junior official, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, Maxim Oreshkin. China's president, Xi Jinping, will be absent as well, but his second-in-command, Li Qiang, will be in attendance. Mexico's new president, Claudia Scheinbaum, will also stay away.

Will the effective absence of two major players mean the G20's relevance will be substantially lessened? Or, as some have argued, will this open a path for a "rise of the middle powers" at an international gathering like the G20?

Or,...