East Africa: Inside Israel's Foray Into the Horn of Africa

When Israel announced on Dec.26 that it had formally recognised Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, it triggered diplomatic shockwaves far beyond the arid plains of northern Somalia.

The move, unprecedented in three decades of Somaliland's unrecognized existence, immediately drew condemnation from Somalia, the African Union, the Arab world, and key regional blocs. It also thrust the Horn of Africa into the middle of the Middle East's most combustible rivalries, raising fears that a region already burdened by fragility could become the next theatre for global power competition.

At the heart of the controversy lies Somaliland itself; a self-declared republic that has functioned as a de facto state since 1991 but remains, in international law, part of the Federal Republic of Somalia. Israel's recognition is not just a diplomatic gesture toward a long-marginalized polity; analysts say it is a calculated geopolitical gamble driven by Red Sea security, Iran-backed threats, rivalry with Türkiye, and the wider fallout from the Gaza war.

"This decision appears rooted in Israel's geopolitical, security and diplomatic priorities particularly amid escalating threats in the Red Sea region," Abubakar Abdi Osman, a Somali diplomacy and international relations expert based in Kampala told The Independent. But he and others warn that the costs may be borne not in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, but in the Horn of Africa.

Somaliland's long quest for recognition

Somaliland declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of Somalia's central government and the overthrow of military dictator Siad Barre. The declaration followed years of brutal conflict in which Barre's forces pursued rebel guerrillas in the northwest of Somalia, devastating cities such as Hargeisa.

Historically, Somaliland's leaders argue, their case for statehood is distinct. The territory was a British protectorate known as British Somaliland until 1960, when it voluntarily united with "Italian Somaliland" to form the Federal Republic of Somalia. Since its unilateral secession three decades later, Somaliland has built functioning government institutions, held elections, maintained relative peace, and even established its own currency and security forces.

Supporters of independence point to clan dynamics. For starters, Somaliland is predominantly inhabited by the Isaaq clan while Somalia (southern part of the country) is dominated by the Hawiye, Darood and Dir clans. Somaliland has over the past three decades also cultivated relative stability compared to southern Somalia, which has endured decades of war and Islamist militant attacks. With an estimated population of about six million people, Somaliland's proponents argue that it should not remain "handcuffed" to a state still struggling to consolidate authority. Yet no country had formally recognised Somaliland, until Israel's announcement.

Somalia's federal government reacted furiously. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warned that recognition of Somaliland would "contravene Somalia's sovereignty" and described Israel's move as an "existential threat" to his country's unity.

"For us, we have been trying to reunite the country in a peaceful manner," Mohamud told Al Jazeera on Dec.30. "So, after 34 years, it was very unexpected and strange that Israel, out of nowhere, just jumped in and said 'we recognise Somaliland."'

Netanyahu's declaration and Israel's overtures

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the recognition as an affirmation of Somaliland's "right of self-determination" and an opportunity to expand bilateral ties.

"I announced today the official recognition of the 'Republic of Somaliland' as an independent and sovereign state," Netanyahu said after a phone call with Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi on Dec.26. "Together with Foreign Minister Sa'ar and the President of the 'Republic of Somaliland,' we signed a joint and mutual declaration. This declaration is in the spirit of the Abraham Accords."

Netanyahu praised Abdullahi's "leadership and commitment to promoting stability and peace" and invited him to make an official visit to Israel. He also outlined plans for "extensive cooperation in the fields of agriculture, health, technology and economy," thanking Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and Mossad chief David Barnea for their roles.

"I thank Foreign Minister, Sa'ar, the head of Mossad, David Barnea and the Mossad, for their contribution to today's development, and I wish the people of Somaliland success, prosperity and freedom," Netanyahu said in a message posted on his Facebook page. For Somaliland's leadership, the announcement was historic, a breakthrough after decades of diplomatic isolation. For much of the region, however, it was a provocation.

Somalia's alarm and claims of hidden agendas

President Mohamud quickly cast Israel's move as something far more dangerous than symbolic diplomacy. Speaking from Istanbul during a joint appearance with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, he accused Israel of harbouring "no peaceful intentions" in the Horn of Africa.

"This is a step of utmost danger, and the whole world, especially Arabs and Muslims, must view it as a serious threat," Mohamud said. He went further, alleging that Somaliland had accepted three Israeli conditions in exchange for recognition: the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza, the establishment of an Israeli military base on the Gulf of Aden coast, and joining the Abraham Accords.

According to President Mohamud, Somali intelligence believes there is already an Israeli presence in Somaliland and that recognition merely "normalizes what is already happening covertly."

Somaliland has denied any agreement to accept Palestinians, and Israel has not confirmed the claims. But the allegations resonated widely, particularly amid the devastation in Gaza.

"Somalia will never accept the people of Palestine to be forcibly evicted from their rightful land to a faraway place," Mohamud told Somalia's Parliament on Dec.28.

Red Sea geopolitics and the Houthi factor

Beyond the political rhetoric, analysts see clear strategic calculations behind Israel's move. The Horn of Africa sits astride one of the world's most vital maritime corridors. Roughly, one-third of global trade passes through the Red Sea, linking the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal.

"The Horn of Africa is a strategic location that connects both the Middle East and Africa," Hassan Muhamud Mohamed, a senior journalist based in Mogadishu told The Independent. "Regional powers, such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and others, are contesting to have a footprint on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden."

For Israel, the stakes have risen sharply since late 2023, when Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels began targeting shipping lines in the Red Sea, disrupting trade and threatening Israeli-linked vessels. Israel has carried out long-range strikes in response, underscoring the logistical challenges of operating so far from home.

"Israel requires allies in the Red Sea region for many strategic reasons among them the possibility of a future campaign against the Houthis," noted the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security Studies in a paper published November 24 under the title, "Somaliland and Israel-Considerations Regarding Recognition and Cooperation."

Somaliland's coastline along the Gulf of Aden makes it an attractive candidate. Analysts say access to ports such as Berbera which is in Somaliland could give Israel a forward operating position for intelligence, surveillance, and potentially military operations closer to Yemen. In response to Israel's recognition, the Houthis warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a "military target," highlighting the risk of escalation.

Countering Iran and Turkey

US-based Africa analyst Cameron Hudson argues that countering Iran is central to Israel's calculus. "The Red Sea is also a conduit for weapons and fighters to flow up the Red Sea into the Eastern Mediterranean," Hudson told the BBC. "It has traditionally been a source of support and supply to fighters in Gaza. And so having a presence, having a security presence, having an intelligence presence at the mouth of the Red Sea only serves Israel's national security interests."

But Iran is not the only concern. Türkiye's expanding role in Somalia has also raised alarms in Israel. Ankara has invested heavily in military training, infrastructure, and development projects in Mogadishu, becoming one of Somalia's closest partners. Just hours after Netanyahu's recognition of Somaliland, President Mohamud was airbound to Türkiye at the invitation of President Erdogan.

Abubakar Abdi Osman points to a particularly sensitive development: Türkiye's initiation, in late December 2025, of construction of a spaceport along Somalia's Indian Ocean coast near Mogadishu.

"This facility is intended for satellite launches and potential rocket development," Osman told The Independent, "but Israeli officials have raised alarms that it could serve as a cover for advancing Türkiye's ballistic missile capabilities."

"Türkiye's broader engagement in Somalia; including military training, infrastructure projects and offshore oil drilling plans set for 2026, has deepened Ankara's foothold in this strategically vital area near major shipping lanes," he told The Independent.

"By recognizing Somaliland, Israel seeks to create a northern counterbalance, potentially securing access to key assets like the port of Berbera for intelligence gathering or military cooperation to monitor Turkish activities. This fits into Israel's wider strategy to curb Türkiye-aligned influences, extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa."

Türkiye's plans for offshore oil drilling in 2026 and its entrenched military presence deepen its foothold near key shipping lanes. By recognising Somaliland, Israel may be seeking a northern counterweight--one that could provide access to Berbera port for monitoring Turkish activities and projecting influence.

This rivalry stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa, Osman argues, adds another layer of complexity to an already crowded geopolitical chessboard.

The Palestinian question and contested claims

But perhaps the most explosive allegation surrounding Israel's recognition of Somaliland concerns the fate of Palestinians from Gaza. Reports earlier in the year suggested Israel had contacted Somaliland about the potential resettlement of Palestinians forcibly removed from Gaza. Israel declined to comment, while Somaliland insisted recognition would have "nothing to do with the Palestinian issue."

Still, both Somalia and the Palestinian Authority have linked the move to displacement fears. Critics warn that any such resettlement would amount to forced population transfer, prohibited under international law.

Hassan Muhamud Mohamed, the Mogadishu-based journalist, argues that the issue cannot be dismissed lightly. "Israel is looking for a state that can host relocated Palestinians from Gaza," he says. "If Israel established a military base on the Red Sea, it could boost its political influence in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa."

Whether these claims materialize or not, their circulation has intensified opposition to Israel's move and sharpened perceptions that the Horn of Africa is being drawn into the Gaza conflict's aftershocks.

Continental and regional backlash

The reaction from Africa and the wider Islamic world was swift and overwhelmingly negative. The African Union Commission reaffirmed its "unwavering commitment to the unity and sovereignty of Somalia," rejecting "any initiative or action aimed at recognizing Somaliland as an independent entity."

AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf warned that recognition would "risk setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent," recalling Africa's long-standing principle of respecting borders inherited at independence.

"The Chairperson of the Commission unequivocally reaffirms the longstanding and consistent position of the African Union, grounded in the principles enshrined in the Constitutive Act of the African Union in particular the respect for the intangibility of borders inherited at independence, as affirmed by the 1964 decision of the Organisation of African Unity," Youssouf said in a statement published just hours after Israel's recognition of Somaliland.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the East African Community (EAC), and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) echoed similar positions, stressing Somalia's territorial integrity and urging adherence to international law.

Saudi Arabia described Israel's recognition as "an action that entrenches unilateral secessionist measures that violate international law," while Rwanda said it "fully aligns" with the African Union and EAC in support of Somalia.

Somalia's federal parliament went further, passing a resolution declaring Israel's recognition "null and void without legal validity" and warning that any individual or institution violating the resolution would face legal consequences.

Israel's rebuttal and the question of precedent

However, Israel's Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa'ar, dismissed the criticism as hypocritical. "Somaliland was not created this past weekend," he said via a tweet on the X social media platform. "It has existed as a functioning state for more than 34 years. Only Israel will decide who to recognise and with whom to maintain diplomatic relations."

This stance underscores Israel's willingness to act unilaterally when it perceives its security interests to be at stake. But it also raises difficult questions for Africa, where many states fear that recognising Somaliland could embolden separatist movements elsewhere. The African Union has long worried about precisely this scenario; a domino effect of secessionist claims destabilizing fragile states across the continent.

For many observers in the Horn, the greatest danger lies not in legal arguments but in the potential militarization of Somaliland and the wider Red Sea corridor.

"This move has many implications in terms of regional security and the global economy," Hassan Muhamud Mohamed warns. "It can bring chaos and enormous security risks to the Red Sea and the people of Somaliland. We can say the action of Israel can shift Middle East crises into the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea."

Already, the region hosts a dense concentration of foreign military bases, from the United States and China in Djibouti to the UAE in Berbera. An Israeli footprint--real or perceived--could heighten proxy rivalries involving Iran, Türkiye, and Gulf states, with Somaliland caught in the middle.

Abubakar Abdi Osman cautions that while some of Israel's strategic drivers--such as Red Sea security--are clear, others remain speculative and contested. "Elements like Palestinian resettlement remain unverified and denied by key parties," he says. "But even the perception of such plans is enough to inflame tensions."

An uncertain future

For Somaliland, Israel's recognition represents both a diplomatic triumph and a perilous gamble. It breaks a 34-year wall of non-recognition but risks isolating the territory from Africa and antagonizing powerful neighbours.

For Somalia, it is a direct challenge to sovereignty at a moment when the federal government is still battling insurgency and trying to rebuild national cohesion.

And for the Horn of Africa as a whole, Israel's foray signals a deeper entanglement with Middle Eastern rivalries--one that could reshape alliances, redraw security calculations, and test the resilience of an already volatile region.

"Israel's unilateral approach prioritizes strategic gains over consensus, drawing condemnations from Somalia, Türkiye, Iran, China and others, while the UN Security Council remains split without a formal resolution," Osman told The Independent.

"In Somaliland, the recognition sparked celebrations and pledges of deepened cooperation, including with the Abraham Accords. However, risks abound; intensified internal Somali conflicts including North west state, proxy rivalries involving Türkiye and China and heightened instability in the Horn," he said. "From X discussions, reactions range from Somaliland's armed forces hailing it as a sovereignty milestone to Somali officials (in Mogagishu) decrying it as Zionist propaganda."

Osman suggests the current development in the region could reshape alliances, potentially drawing in powers like India or Russia, while underscoring how security needs often override diplomatic norms in the region.

"This event highlights the fluid geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, where Israel's "act alone" strategy may yield short-term advantages but invites long-term volatility. While substantiated strategic drivers like Red Sea security and countering Türkiye are clear, elements like Palestinian resettlement remain speculative and denied by key parties."

Still, whether Israel's "act alone" strategy delivers lasting gains or fuels long-term instability remains an open question. What is clear is that the Horn of Africa, once again, finds itself at the crossroads of global power politics, its fate intertwined with conflicts far beyond its shores.

Read the original article on Independent (Kampala).

East Africa: Inside Israel's Foray Into the Horn of Africa

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