Mozambique: Can Frelimo Keep Control for the Next Decade?

President Daniel Chapo and his Zimbabwean counterpart launch the expansion of the Beira-Harare fuel corridor (file photo)

Gas could make Mozambique relatively wealthy, but not for another decade. Only one small floating platform is producing now, but that allowed an analysis of the contracts. Income is limited until all of the exploration and development costs are paid off, which takes about 8 years, and then there is a sudden income jump. Area 1 (TotalEnergies) will not start production until 2029-2030, and Area 4 (Exxon Mobil) three years later. So in the period 2032- 2038 when initial costs are being paid off, government income from gas will be about $1bn per year. Only then is there a jump and by 2040 Mozambique will be earning $4bn per year from gas (compared to total government income now of $5.2 bn).

Mozambique is one of the most unequal countries in Africa. Unless there are policy changes, it will be another decade before there will be significant extra revenue that can be spent on the poor and on training young people. After a decade young people will no longer be young – will they still be jobless and poor?

Does Frelimo believe it can continue for another decade with the present governance model – stealing elections and killing protesters and opposition political figures, as well as ignoring the war in Cabo Delgado?

A first test will be the trial of opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, charged with treason for calling for protests against the 2024 election. Under Mozambique’s constitution, judges are chosen according to party affiliation. Mondlane must be tried by a panel of 5 judges of the Constitutional Council; 3 of those chosen have Frelimo links. They have already ruled that the trial cannot be broadcast live or recorded, and will be held in a small courtroom, although Carta de Moçambique (24 September) reported that the judges were minded to allow broadcasting of the accusation, Mondlane’s initial statement, and the judgement – but none of the evidence. Broadcasting and recording can be allowed by judges, and the secret debt and Carlos Cardoso murder trials were broadcast nationally. The start of the trial has been postponed until 17 November.

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