Washington, D.C. — There is now "observational evidence" that the earth is getting warmer than it has been at any other time during the last 10,000 years, according to Dr. Robert Watson, World Bank Chief Scientist and Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There is "tragic irony" in Africa's vulnererability, Watson said.
"With it's very low use of fossil fuel sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest emissions of the greenhouse gases that are the major cause of human-induced climate change. Yet sub-Saharan Africa, along with low-lying small island states in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, are the most vulnerable to climate change because widespread poverty limits their capabilities to adapt to a continuing changing climate."
Watson was addressing a World Bank panel discussion Thursday -- "Climate Change - A Challenge for the 21st Century." Another panelist, World Bank Vice President for Environment, Ian Johnson, said, "Poor people will suffer the most and poor countries," as sea levels rise and there is less rainfall.
"In the last 100 years," Dr. Watson told allAfrica.com, the world has been warming dramatically -- "from 06.0 degrees farenheit to 1 degree farenheit. And over the next 100 years we are looking at an increase that could range from two-and- one-half degrees to ten degrees."
As things stand now, that spells disaster for Africa, said Watson. "Desertification, widespread exposure to dengue fever, malaria and other infectious diseases. Sea level rise that increases erosion. The African continent is the most vulnerable in the world." In Zimbabwe, Watson said, "The 100-year average for rainfall was something like 600 to 700 inches per year in the wettest years and around 500 in dry years. In the last 10 years or so, rainfall in Zimbabwe's wettest years have been less than the rainfall in what were traditionally dry years."
In a draft report written this April, the IPCC that Watson chairs said it found that of the 19 countries classified as water-stressed, more are in Africa than any other region. "And this number is likely to increase," according to the IPCC.
Tropical forests and rangelands already under threat from population pressures and land-use systems will add "further stresses to a deteriorating situation."
Africa's west coast, frequently buffeted by storms, could face higher erosion rates, while the calmer east coast may be less protected by its coral reefs. "A number of studies indicate that a sizable proportion of the Nile delta will be lost through a combinantion of inundation and erosion."
Vector-borne diseases, worsening pollution, dangerous water, and collasping urban infrastructure as populations move into urban areas, are all potential consequences of climate change, the report warns. "In view of the poor economic status of most African nations, global efforts will be necessay to tackle the potential health effects."
Watson appealed to the world's political leaders for help in defeating the consequences of global warming. "The challenge is clear, and the health and livelihoods of the world's people will depend on this." Asked whether Africa's picture was so bleak it was irreversible, Dr. Watson said it was not, if steps are taken immediately to help Africa and other vulnerable regions "adapt to changing climate."
The "immediate challege," says Watson, "is to reduce and slow down gas emissions." An important question surrounding climate change and African nations is "how to help them build the capacity to adapt when they don't have the technology, and don't have the infrastructure and don't have the financial capacity." This is where the United States and other western nations can play an important role, Dr. Watson believes.
According to environmental activists, the United States has just six percent of the world's total population but produces a quarter of the globe's carbon dioxide. But in early March President Bush gave efforts to fight global warming two sharp blows. He reneged on a campaign pledge to regulate cabon dioxide emissions from U.S. plants, and then announced his opposition to the Kyoto Agreement, an international protocol setting limits on emission of greenhouse gases. "I will not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt our workers," the president said.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
"We know that the U.S. is the world's largest emitter of greehouse gases and is therefore an important part of the problem," said UN Environmental Program Executive Director Klaus Toepfer in response to President Bush's announced opposition to Kyoto. "But the U.S. is also our best hope for a solution."
Says Dr. Watson: "How do developed nations work with developing countries to get the energy they need and produce the energy they need?"
But as Watson spoke at the World Bank, reports from Sweden indicated that the European Union and U.S. positions on how to tackle global warming remained far apart. A joint statement issued after Thursday's EU-US summit in Gothenburg, Sweden brusquely stated that "we disagree on the Kyoto Protocol and its ratification."
